Apple stock plunged nearly 10% on Thursday after the company cut its
revenue forecast due to slowing iPhone sales in China. Apple’s woes
dragged U.S. stock indices lower by more than 2% as fears of a more
extensive China-driven slowdown spread.
For years, no matter what was
happening elsewhere, global companies bet billions upon billions of
dollars that China’s consumers would keep spending money.
長年、他国で何が起きようとも多国籍企業は中国消費は巨額を維持することに賭けてきた。
Now, just when the world economy could use their financial firepower, they are no longer so quick to open their wallets.
今や、世界経済が金融弾薬を用いてももはや彼らの財布を緩めることはできない。
The latest sign of a slowdown in spending in China came Wednesday, when Apple unexpectedly slashed its financial forecast, citing disappointing iPhones sales in the country. The weakness followed reams of other data — declining car sales, lagging retail spending, a slumping property market, a tougher job market — that suggest Chinese consumers may be losing their once unshakable confidence.
That
could have a big impact on a world looking for engines of growth, on
companies that counted on China’s continuing expansion and on global
investors who have long viewed China as a steady source of profits.
“It’s not going to be
just Apple,” CEA chairman Kevin Hassett said in an interview on CNN.
“There are a heck of a lot of U.S. companies that have sales in China
that are going to be watching their earnings being downgraded next year
until we get a deal with China.”
「これはアップルだけに起きていることではない」とCEA議長 Kevin HassettはCNNのインタビューに答えた。「中国で大きな売上をしめている米国企業は多い、中国との交渉終結までこれら企業の収益は要注意だ。」
Hassett argued that a softer
economy in China is cutting into U.S. companies’ sales there and that
the economic pain gives Trump leverage in ongoing trade negotiations.
“That puts a lot of pressure on China to make a deal,” he said.
I agree with Kevin Hassett that many more American companies are
going to take a hit from China’s slowdown and the ongoing trade war, but
the risks posed by the ultimate bursting of China’s massive credit
bubble are far greater, yet virtually nobody is discussing it.
As the chart of China’s total debt as a percent of GDP shows, China has
been gorging on debt for the past decade. This debt binge has been
amplifying China’s economic growth and allowing its consumers to buy
Western consumer goods like Apple iPhones.
The scary truth is that Apple and other American companies
have been benefiting from China’s credit bubble, but most have no clue
that this bubble is going to burst and cause a severe recession
or depression in China, causing American exports to China to plunge.
When is society going to learn that debt binges create temporary
economic booms, but always end in terrible busts?
恐ろしい真実は、アップルやその他米国企業は中国の与信バブルの恩恵を受けていたことだ、しかしだれもこのバブルがいまはじけ、深刻な景気後退もしくは恐慌が中国に来ることを見通していない、こうなると米国から中国への輸出は急落する。債務のどんちゃん騒ぎが一時的な経済ブームを生み出すが、常にそれはひどい炸裂で終わることを社会全体がいつ気づくだろうか？ Please follow me on LinkedIn and Twitter to keep up with my updates. Please click here to sign up for our free weekly newsletter to learn how to navigate the investment world in these risky times.
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