投資家はかつて無いほどの弱気心理で２０１８を終えた




Investors Ended 2018 With The Greatest Surge In Bearish Sentiment Ever



The last two days have seen US equity markets soar higher on the heels of the largest short-squeeze since the day after Brexit.

ここ２日ほど米国株式市場は、Brexit以来の大きなショートスクイーズで急騰している。



This follows one of the worst Decembers on record for practically every risk asset class, with risky asset flows the worst they have been since the financial crisis...



この状況は最悪の１２月を受けての値動きだ、実際どのリスク資産も、あの金融危機以来の最悪だった・・・

But, it appears the market was perfectly placed for this week's huge squeeze/rip higher however, as Goldman Sachs notes that the increase in bearish sentiment as measured by the Investors Intelligence survey during the last week of 2018 was the largest pick-up on record by a wide margin...

しかし、市場は今週は巨大なスクイーズで上昇した、Goldman Sachsによると、２０１８最終週のInvestor Intelligence survey 弱気心理指数はダントツの大きささった・・・

...with bearish sentiment overtaking bullish sentiment for the first time since 2016...

・・・弱気心理が強気心理を上回ったのは２０１６年以来で初めてだ・・・・・

Goldman's chief global equity strategist has argued that growth risks appear well-discounted so that if a recession does not come, it is likely that 2019 provides a bounce, followed by more muted returns afterwards. However, one glance at the relationships between the 'normalization' of The Fed's balance sheet (i.e. quantitative tightening) and global stocks and global economic data suggest, as Alasdair Williamson noted, "Don't be delusional, the entire world is rolling over."

 ゴールドマン・サックスの世界株式ストラテジスト主任によると、景気後退とならないならば成長リスクは割り引かれている、２０１９は跳ね返るだろう、今後緩やかな上昇となる、ということだ。しかしながら、FEDバランスシート「正常化」と世界株式や世界経済成長のデータ相関を見ると、Alasdair Williamson が言うように、「決して惑わされてはいけない、世界中がひっくり返っているのだ。」

So all the talk about The Fed's dovish rate jawboning is entirely missing the point. If they keep 'normalizing' the balance sheet, none of this well end well (and the surge in bearish sentiment would have been well placed).


というわけで、FEDのハト派的金利引き上げを取り上げるのは全く観点を取り違えている。彼らがバランスシート「正常化」を続ける限り、この状況がうまく終わるわけがない（そして弱気心理急増というのはまさに正鵠を得ている）。

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