コントラリアンJ

Jeff Gundlach Slams "Embarrassed" Fed's Powell For "Caving To The Stock Market" by Tyler Durden Wed, 01/30/2019 - 20:55 Having earlier in the week indicated his grave  concern that a recession looms , signaled by Conference Board sentiment extremes...noting the spread between the Conference Board's current sentiment and expectations is the widest since March 2001, the first month of the U.S. recession that year. 今週初めに景気後退の深刻な懸念を彼は示した、全米産業審議会心理指数が極端になり・・他でもない、現状指数と将来指数が大きく乖離したのだ、２００１年３月以来のことだ、この年の初月に米国は景気後退入りしていた。 Which DoubleLine's CEO Jeff Gundlach warned... The bond guru told Reuters in an interview tonight that fragile equity markets forced Fed Chair Jerome Powell to pledge on Wednesday that the U.S. central bank will be patient with future interest rate hikes 債権第一人者の彼は今夜ロイターのインタ

債務先進国の日本でもまだ巨額債務と財政赤字が顕在化していません、米国の場合はもっと政府債務を増やしても問題が顕在化するまでに十分な時間が在るように見えます。債務発行量の限界は日本と同じく長短金利差を利用する銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなるときでしょう。 CBO Unveils Apocalyptic Long-Term Debt Picture With US Set To Borrow Over $1 Trillion For Second Year by Tyler Durden Mon, 01/28/2019 - 12:37 On Monday morning, the CBO announced  in its latest forecast that, as widely expected, U.S. budget deficits are set to widen further in coming years and economic gains will be muted" - a growth outlook that’s weaker than the Trump administration’s target of at least 3 percent growth. However, the surprise was that contrary to the CBO's last forecast, the budget deficit is now expected to hit $1 trillion two years later than previously projected. 月曜朝に、CBO議会予算局が最新予想を開示した、予想通り、米国財政赤字は今後何年も拡大を続け経済成長は弱まるだろうーートランプ政権の目標３％よりも成長予測は弱いものだ。しかしながら、驚いたことにCBOの昨年の予想とは

ガラス玉を何億円かの宝石だと主張することもできますからね。 Chinese Capital Is Fleeing Offshore Again... And Now We Know How by Tyler Durden Fri, 01/25/2019 - 17:25 Officially, China has maintained quasi capital controls for years: on paper no individual is allowed to move more than $50,000 out of the country in any given year while Chinese companies can exchange yuan for foreign currencies only for approved purposes. 公式には、中国は長年、準資本規制を行ってきた：書類の上では、だれも年間＄５０，０００以上の資金を海外に持ち出すことはできない、一方で中国企業は政府認可のもとで人民元を外貨に変えることができる。 Unofficially, China's capital controls had been skirted for years, leading to massive capital outflow from the nation over the past decade, leading to such aberrations as massive luxury housing bubbles in places such as Vancouver, London, New York and San Francisco, and seemingly middle-class Chinese politicians and oligarchs sporting Swiss bank a

もし今後FEDが金融政策を変更する時、どう説明すると思います？ １．米国経済は好調だが、念の為金融政策をこれまでの引締め的から緩和的に変更する。 ２．米国経済の先行きに懸念があるので、金融政策をこれまでの引締め的から緩和的に変更する。 政策変更にあたりこういう説明がFOMCで述べられると皆さんはどう反応します？ Fed Caves – Bulls Run 01-26-19 Written by Lance Roberts | Jan, 26, 2019  I could almost just reprint last week’s newsletter as not much changed during the week. 私は先週の記事をそのまま載せてしまいそうだ、この一週状況は殆ど変わっていない。 “Importantly, the previous deep ‘oversold’ condition which was supportive of the rally following Christmas Eve has now been fully reversed back into extreme ‘overbought’ territory. While this doesn’t mean the current rally will immediately reverse, it does suggest that upside from current levels is likely limited.” 「大切なことは、クリスマスイブの「大きく売られすぎ状態」が今や全く逆になり「極端な買われすぎ領域」となっている。だからといって現在のラリーがすぐに反転するわけではないが、現状から更に上昇する可能性は限られている。」 As I discussed previously, what was needed for the bulls to gain control of the narrative were several important issues: 私は以前にも議論したが、ブル相場が継続するためにはいくつかの重要なできごとが必要だ：

It superimposes GLD’s bullion holdings in blue over the gold price in red.  Rising GLD holdings show that American stock-market capital is moving into gold via the conduit of this leading gold ETF.  In Q4 and especially December gold surged higher on  heavy differential buying  of GLD shares.  But in January that GLD buying has moderated.  That’s why gold’s advance stalled out, which in turn drove gold stocks’ pause. GLDの現物保持高を青でゴールド価格を赤で示した。GLD保持高が増えるということは米国株式市場資金がGLD経由でゴールド市場に流入していることを示す。Q4特に１２月には大きなGLD株買いこみでゴールドは急騰した。しかし１月になりGLD買いが穏やかになった。これがゴールドの勢いを止めた、そして金鉱株の休止を引き起こした。 Again I discussed this chart just last week, so there’s no need for more comprehensive analysis.  For our purposes today, note how GLD’s holdings climbed modestly in October and November after they had fallen to a deep 2.6-year secular low of their own in early October.  GLD had suffered 5 consecutive monthly draws of 24.2 metric tons, 28.0t, 18.8t, 45.0t, and 12.9t between May and September,

This Week Is Peak "Buyback Blackout" Window, And Then Comes The Avalanche by Tyler Durden Sun, 01/27/2019 - 10:29 The coming week will not only be the heaviest in terms of number of S&P500 companies reporting Q4 earnings, it will also see the peak of the current buyback blackout window. As JPMorgan shows in the chart below, in the week of Jan 29, roughly 60% of all companies will be prohibited from repurchasing their stock, a potential downside risk as should a negative catalyst emerge - say US-China Trade talks fail to impress - there will be far fewer companies able to provide a natural shock absorber to a rapid drop. 来週には、S&P500銘柄のQ4決算開示が続くだけでなく、現在の自社株買いブラックアウトウインドウがピークに達するだろう。JPMorganが下のチャートに示すが、１月２９日の週に全銘柄の６０％が自社株買いを禁じられる、これは何かマイナス要因が生じるときの潜在的な下落リスクとなるーーたとえば米中貿易協議が失敗に終わるというようなーー急落時の緩衝行動を取れる企業が少なくなるだろう。 That's