建設産業の解雇が急増、記録的レベル
While
nowhere near alarming levels, this morning's initial jobless claims
confirm that the improvement in the labor market may be peaking,
contrary to what ADP reported earlier, with Initial Jobless Claims
jumping by 10K, from 221K to 231K, the highest print since November
2018.
もう警告レベルだが、今朝の失業保険新規申請は労働市場の改善もピークに達したかもしれない、これまでのADPの報告とは逆だ、失業保険新規申請は２２１Kから１０K増えて３２１Kになった、２０１８年１１以来の高い値だ。
But while the initial claims report indicated some modest slowdown in the economy, if nothing near the recent plunge observed by both the Richmond and Dallas Feds, a far more ominous data point was revealed earlier this morning, when the latest Challenger jobs report found that seven of 28 industries tracked by Challenger had 3k or more layoffs in December, the most since April 2015, which according to Reuters' Jeoff Hall was "just the fourth time since the end of the Great Recession in which there were seven or more industries with that many layoffs each."
新規失業保険申請の示唆するのは経済の緩やかなスローダウンを示しているが、ほかでもなくRichmond FED やDallas FEDの指標も下落しており、今朝わかった数値はさらに不吉なものだ、最新のChallenger社の雇用報告によると２８産業の内７産業で１２月に３Kの解雇があった、２０１５年４月以来の高い値だ、ロイターのJeoff Hallによると「the Great Recession以来で、７産業以上で多くの解雇があったのはこれで４回目となる。」
Also according to Challenger, the December 2018 layoff total of
43,884, was nearly 29% higher than last year and the highest total since
2015. Additionally, in 2018, 538,659 job cuts were announced, 28.6%
higher than the 418,770 announced in 2017. This is the highest
annual total since 598,510 cuts were recorded in 2015, and the
second-highest total since 2011, when 606,082 cuts were announced.
Challenger社によると、２０１８年１２月の解雇は４３，８８４におよび、昨年よりも２９％多い、さらに２０１５年以来で最大だ。さらに、２０１８年通年には、５３８．６５９の雇用削減が示され、２０１７年通年の４１８．７７０よりも２８．６％多い。この値は２０１５年の５９８，５１０以来で最大のものだ、２０１１年以来では二番目となる、この年は６０６，０８２削減だった。
And an even more troubling observation: the number of layoffs in the construction industry jumped by 8,822 - this was not only more than all 15 prior months combined, but was the most since at least October 2006 when Challenger started tracking the industry. Indicatively, the next closest month with such a high spike in construction job losses was February 2007, just ahead of the Great Recession.
そしてもっと困ったことに：建設業界での解雇数が８，８２２となったーーこの値は直近１５か月の早計よりも多いだけでなく、少なくとも２００６年１０月以来最大だ、Challenger社が建設業の統計を取り始めたのがこの年だ。直接的には、建設業で二番目に解雇が多かったのは２００７年２月のことだ、ちょうどGreat Recession直前のことだ。
Challenger also noted some special factors, noting that the majority of job cut announcements were due to companies restructuring, with 185,931 cuts were attributed to this reason. Another 145,298 were due to closings. Voluntary severance, such as buyouts or early retirement offers, claimed 48,745.
Challengerはまた特殊要因を指摘する、雇用削減の多くは企業のリストラによるものだ、解雇数の内１８５．９３１はこの理由による。それ以外の１４５，２９８は事業閉鎖によるものだ。早期退職プログラムによるものが４８，７４５だ。
Challenger tracked 798 announced job cuts specifically due to enacted tariffs. Another 1,565 cuts were blamed on government regulations, either federal or local. Meanwhile, Hurricane Michael was to blame for 800 cuts in Florida. The recent earthquake in Alaska claimed 40 jobs, while 27 workers were cut due to wildfires.
Challenger社によると７９８は関税法案に関するものだ。その他１，５６５解雇は政府法令によるものだ、連邦政府、地方政府による。それと同時に、フロリダのハリケーンによるものが８００．アラスカの最近の地震によるものが４０、山火事関連が２７だった。
“It remains to be seen, especially as new trade deals continue to be negotiated and tariffs are lifted or further enforced, what the impact on job cuts will be. The large-scale job cut announcements due to these tariffs have yet to be announced, it seems,” said Challenger.
「現在貿易協議が進行中でさらなる関税強化となると雇用へのインパクトは大きくなるだろう。この関税に関する大規模解雇はまだ知らされていない、その可能性は高い、」とChallenger社は言う。
もう警告レベルだが、今朝の失業保険新規申請は労働市場の改善もピークに達したかもしれない、これまでのADPの報告とは逆だ、失業保険新規申請は２２１Kから１０K増えて３２１Kになった、２０１８年１１以来の高い値だ。
But while the initial claims report indicated some modest slowdown in the economy, if nothing near the recent plunge observed by both the Richmond and Dallas Feds, a far more ominous data point was revealed earlier this morning, when the latest Challenger jobs report found that seven of 28 industries tracked by Challenger had 3k or more layoffs in December, the most since April 2015, which according to Reuters' Jeoff Hall was "just the fourth time since the end of the Great Recession in which there were seven or more industries with that many layoffs each."
新規失業保険申請の示唆するのは経済の緩やかなスローダウンを示しているが、ほかでもなくRichmond FED やDallas FEDの指標も下落しており、今朝わかった数値はさらに不吉なものだ、最新のChallenger社の雇用報告によると２８産業の内７産業で１２月に３Kの解雇があった、２０１５年４月以来の高い値だ、ロイターのJeoff Hallによると「the Great Recession以来で、７産業以上で多くの解雇があったのはこれで４回目となる。」
Challenger社によると、２０１８年１２月の解雇は４３，８８４におよび、昨年よりも２９％多い、さらに２０１５年以来で最大だ。さらに、２０１８年通年には、５３８．６５９の雇用削減が示され、２０１７年通年の４１８．７７０よりも２８．６％多い。この値は２０１５年の５９８，５１０以来で最大のものだ、２０１１年以来では二番目となる、この年は６０６，０８２削減だった。
And an even more troubling observation: the number of layoffs in the construction industry jumped by 8,822 - this was not only more than all 15 prior months combined, but was the most since at least October 2006 when Challenger started tracking the industry. Indicatively, the next closest month with such a high spike in construction job losses was February 2007, just ahead of the Great Recession.
そしてもっと困ったことに：建設業界での解雇数が８，８２２となったーーこの値は直近１５か月の早計よりも多いだけでなく、少なくとも２００６年１０月以来最大だ、Challenger社が建設業の統計を取り始めたのがこの年だ。直接的には、建設業で二番目に解雇が多かったのは２００７年２月のことだ、ちょうどGreat Recession直前のことだ。
Challenger also noted some special factors, noting that the majority of job cut announcements were due to companies restructuring, with 185,931 cuts were attributed to this reason. Another 145,298 were due to closings. Voluntary severance, such as buyouts or early retirement offers, claimed 48,745.
Challengerはまた特殊要因を指摘する、雇用削減の多くは企業のリストラによるものだ、解雇数の内１８５．９３１はこの理由による。それ以外の１４５，２９８は事業閉鎖によるものだ。早期退職プログラムによるものが４８，７４５だ。
Challenger tracked 798 announced job cuts specifically due to enacted tariffs. Another 1,565 cuts were blamed on government regulations, either federal or local. Meanwhile, Hurricane Michael was to blame for 800 cuts in Florida. The recent earthquake in Alaska claimed 40 jobs, while 27 workers were cut due to wildfires.
Challenger社によると７９８は関税法案に関するものだ。その他１，５６５解雇は政府法令によるものだ、連邦政府、地方政府による。それと同時に、フロリダのハリケーンによるものが８００．アラスカの最近の地震によるものが４０、山火事関連が２７だった。
“It remains to be seen, especially as new trade deals continue to be negotiated and tariffs are lifted or further enforced, what the impact on job cuts will be. The large-scale job cut announcements due to these tariffs have yet to be announced, it seems,” said Challenger.
「現在貿易協議が進行中でさらなる関税強化となると雇用へのインパクトは大きくなるだろう。この関税に関する大規模解雇はまだ知らされていない、その可能性は高い、」とChallenger社は言う。
