Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,
M2 Money Supply is surging. Will gold follow? M2マネーサプライが急増している。ゴールドはこれを追従するだろうか？
Let's investigate an alleged relationship between gold and M2, a measure of money supply in the US.
よく言われるM2（米国のマネーサプライ指標）とゴールドの関係について調べてみよう。
"There’s a clear correlation between the annual growth rate in M2 money supply and the price of the yellow metal. "
「M2の年率増加速度とゴールド価格の間には明らかな相関がある。」
Clear Correlation? 明らかな相関？
The Tweet claims something different than my lead chart depicts. So let's investigate the above idea in other time frames.
If we look at longer time frames, the rate of increase in M2 theory falls flat on its face.
もっと長期間を見ると、M2増加率理論は意味を成さないことが解る。
One can force a correlation starting in 2010 but that is purposeful
cherry-picking a timeframe. and even then, the time period in the box is
counter-trend.
Similarly, one can find times when gold is correlated to the dollar,
the Yen, and most likely the popularity of peanuts at Cub games in some
time frame.
The best correlation I can find to the price of gold is faith in
central banks. Gold collapsed from $850 to $250 under Greenspan's "Great
Moderation". Greenspan was viewed as the "Maestro" until the dot-com
bubble collapsed.
Gold went on a tear during the housing bubble, but put in a top when ECB president Mario Draghi gave his famous speech: "We will do whatever it takes to save the Euro, and believe me it will be enough."
Draghi did nothing. His speech was enough. Bond yields on Greek,
Portuguese, and Italian bonds started collapsing right after that
speech. It was not until years later the ECB resorted to negative
interest rates and QE.
Gold started rising again when the ECB went nuts with QE and the Fed
started talking about "normalization"that anyone in their right mind
knew was not coming.
The BIS did a historical study and found routine price deflation was not any problem at all.
BISは長年物価デフレを研究してきた、そこに何ら問題はないという。
"Deflation may actually boost output. Lower prices increase real
incomes and wealth. And they may also make export goods more competitive,” stated the study.
It’s asset bubble deflation that is damaging. When asset bubbles burst, debt deflation results.
資産バブルデフレは損失を生み出す。資産バブルが破裂すると、債務デフレが生み出される。
Central banks’ seriously misguided attempts to defeat routine
consumer price deflation is what fuels the destructive build up of
unproductive debt and asset bubbles that eventually collapse.
多量のオピオイドを米国に送り込み、米国で深刻な麻薬中毒問題を引き起こしています。現代版「阿片戦争」です。あのトヨタ初の女性取締役もオピオイド中毒で逮捕解任されましたよね。 US Is Dependent On China For Almost 80% Of Its Medicine by Tyler Durden Fri, 05/31/2019 - 12:55 Experts are warning that the U.S. has become way too reliant on China for all our medicine , our pain killers, antibiotics, vitamins, aspirin and many cancer treatment medicine. 専門家はこう警告する、米国はすべての医薬品、痛み止め、抗生物質、ビタミン、アスピリン、各種抗がん剤で、中国依存度が高すぎる。 Fox Business reports that according to FDA estimates at least 80 percent of active ingredients found in all of America’s medicine come from abroad, primarily from China . And it’s not just the ingredients, China wants to become the world’s dominant generic drug maker. So far Chinese companies are making generic for everything from high blood pressure to chemotherapy drugs. 90 percent of America’s prescriptions a...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
