ゴールドとマネーサプライの関係は？







Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,
M2 Money Supply is surging. Will gold follow?

 M2マネーサプライが急増している。ゴールドはこれを追従するだろうか？
Let's investigate an alleged relationship between gold and M2, a measure of money supply in the US.

よく言われるM2（米国のマネーサプライ指標）とゴールドの関係について調べてみよう。





"There’s a clear correlation between the annual growth rate in M2 money supply and the price of the yellow metal. "

「M2の年率増加速度とゴールド価格の間には明らかな相関がある。」

Clear Correlation?　明らかな相関？

The Tweet claims something different than my lead chart depicts. So let's investigate the above idea in other time frames.

このツイートの主張は私が示す最初のチャートが示すものとは異なる。というわけでこのtweetの主張を別の時間フレームで見てみよう。

Gold vs Rate of Change in M2 Money Supply


ゴールド vs  M2マネーサプライの変化率





If we look at longer time frames, the rate of increase in  M2 theory falls flat on its face.

もっと長期間を見ると、M2増加率理論は意味を成さないことが解る。

One can force a correlation starting in 2010 but that is purposeful cherry-picking a timeframe. and even then, the time period in the box is counter-trend.

２０１０年からだけを見ると相関がありそうだが、ご都合主義の時間フレームを選んだだけだ。そしてこの期間においても図の箱の領域では逆トレンドになっている。

Cherry-Picking Timeframes

ご都合主義時間フレーム

If you have to cherry-pick timeframes, especially when there are totally random results outside that timeframe, the relationship is imaginary.

自らの主張に都合の良い時間フレームだけを見るなら、その時間フレーム以外では全く意味をなさない、相関は虚構のものだ。

Similarly, one can find times when gold is correlated to the dollar, the Yen, and most likely the popularity of peanuts at Cub games in some time frame.

同様に、ゴールドとドルや円との相関が見られる時間フレームもある、ある時期には子供のフィットネス競争が流行るようなものだ。

Gold vs Faith in Central Banks 


ゴールドvs 中央銀行への信頼


The best correlation I can find to the price of gold is faith in central banks. Gold collapsed from $850 to $250 under Greenspan's "Great Moderation". Greenspan was viewed as the "Maestro" until the dot-com bubble collapsed.

私が見つけ出した中で、ゴールドと最も相関が有るのは中央銀行への信頼だ。Greenspanの「Great Moderation」時代にはゴールドは＄８５０から＄２５０まで下落した。どっとこむバブル崩壊までGreenspanは「Maestro」とみなされていた。
Gold went on a tear during the housing bubble, but put in a top when ECB president Mario Draghi gave his famous speech: "We will do whatever it takes to save the Euro, and believe me it will be enough."

住宅バブルの間ゴールドは快進撃だった、しかしECB議長Mario Draghhiがあの有名なスピーチをしたときが天井となった：「どんなことがあろうともEuroを守る、私を信じてくれそれで十分だ。」

Draghi Q&A　

  • Q: What did Draghi do?

    Q：一体Draghiが何をしたか？
    　
  • A: Absolutely nothing!

    A：全く何もしていない！
Draghi did nothing. His speech was enough. Bond yields on Greek, Portuguese, and Italian bonds started collapsing right after that speech. It was not until years later the ECB resorted to negative interest rates and QE.

Draghiは何もしなかった。彼のスピーチが全てだ。ギリシャやポルトガル、イタリアの債権がこのスピーチ直後から急落した。数年後にはECBはマイナス金利やQEをせざるを得なくなった。


Gold started rising again when the ECB went nuts with QE and the Fed started talking about "normalization"that anyone in their right mind knew was not coming.

ECBがQEに熱狂し始めてゴールドは再度上昇を始めた、FEDは「正常化」を議論し始めたがこれは実現しなかった。

Massive QE and Inflation

巨額QEとインフレ

Yes, the Fed has turned on QE to an extent few thought possible.

そう、FEDはまたもやQEに方針転換した、疑うことなく。

But that did not ignite inflation in any meaningful way, at least as measured by the CPI.

しかしこれがまったくインフレを引き起こしていない、少なくともCPIを見る限りでは。

The Core CPI Declines 3 Months for the First Time Ever

コアCPIは初めて３ヶ月連続で下落している

On Jun 10, I noted The Core CPI Declines 3 Months for the First Time Ever.
My headline will have the inflationists howling from the rooftops because they will not even bother reading what I said inside.

６月１０に私はこういう記事を書いた、史上初めてコアCPIが三ヶ月連続で下落した。私としては声高にインフレを主張するはずだった、というのも私が思うインフレが顕在化しないだろう。
Poor Measure of Inflation
インフレ計測法が貧弱だ
These indexes supposedly measure inflation.
各種指数はインフレを計測すると思われている。
They do nothing of the kind. The indexes do not include home prices, only rent.

しかし全くその役に立っていない。物価指数に住宅価格は組み込まれていない、そのかわりに帰属家賃で計測する。
The purported medical inflation is a joke. Anyone who buys their own medical insurance will tell you their costs are up more than the reported 5.9%.
いわゆる医療費はもう冗談に近い。自ら医療保険を買う人は解っているがその費用上昇は公式な値５．９％よりも高いものだ。
Anyone in college has not been pleased with the rising cost of tuition and rent in college towns.
大学生は授業料や下宿費用に悩まされる。

And anyone with an ounce of common sense knows the current stock market bubble is a measure of inflation.
ちょっとでも常識のある人ならすぐに分かることだが、現在の株式市場バブルこそインフレ指標だ。

Lie of the Day, Month, and Year

 嘘の日々、年月
The Fed and economists pretend that "inflation" is only up 0.1% year-over-year.

FEDやエコノミストは「インフレ」はYoYでわずか０．１％だというふりをする。
The Fed and economists in general do not know how to measure "inflation".
FEDもエコノミストも「インフレ」を計測する手法を知らない。
And the Fed's efforts to produce it has created destructive bubbles sure to pop causing the deflation they hope to prevent.

FEDはインフレを生み出そうとして破壊的なバブルを生み出しその破裂で本来は回避すべきデフレを生み出してしまう。

BIS Deflation Study

BISのデフレ研究

The BIS did a historical study and found routine price deflation was not any problem at all.

BISは長年物価デフレを研究してきた、そこに何ら問題はないという。
"Deflation may actually boost output. Lower prices increase real incomes and wealth. And they may also make export goods more competitive,” stated the study.

「デフレは実際生産的だ。物価提言で実質収入や富が増える。そして輸出品の競争力を高める、」と報告書で述べる。

For a discussion of the BIS study, please see Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations

BISの研究について議論するなら、この記事を読むが良い CPIデフレの歴史的見通し。

Asset Bubble Deflation

資産バブルデフレ

It’s asset bubble deflation that is damaging. When asset bubbles burst, debt deflation results.

資産バブルデフレは損失を生み出す。資産バブルが破裂すると、債務デフレが生み出される。


Central banks’ seriously misguided attempts to defeat routine consumer price deflation is what fuels the destructive build up of unproductive debt and asset bubbles that eventually collapse.

世界の中央銀行は深刻な間違いを犯している、常に消費者物価デフレを回避しようとしているが、これが非生産的な債務の破壊的な積み上げを引き起こしている、そして資産バブルはやがて崩壊する。

The Problem is Not Deflation, It's Attempts to Prevent It

問題はデフレではない、問題はそれを回避しようとする試みだ

For discussion of asset bubbles and inflation, please see The Problem is Not Deflation, It's Attempts to Prevent It.

資産バブルとインフレに関して議論するなら、この記事を読むが良い、問題はデフレ自身ではない、問題はそれを回避しようとする試みだ。

Struggle to Maintain Control

制御しようとする格闘。



The Fed is struggling to keep things under control. It is afraid of another credit bust like we had in 2008-2009, and rightfully so.

FEDはすべてを制御しようと格闘している。２００８−２００９のような与信バブル破裂を回避しようとしてる、それもよかろう。

Are things under control? Clearly not.

 物事を制御できているか？　明らかに違う

 Is money supply an indicator?


マネーサプライが指標となるだろうか？

Perhaps, so, but the important point is not the QE, but rather that people know the Fed has again lost control.

たぶんそうだろう、しかし大切なのはQEではない、そうではなく人々がFEDがまたもや制御不能になることを知っていることだ。

Speculators Dump Gold But Price Goes Up Anyway

投機筋はゴールドを売り込むがゴールド価格は上昇する

Misconceptions about gold are rampant.

ゴールドに関する誤解がはびこっている。

Here's another example: Contrary to popular belief, jewelry purchases are meaningless to the price of gold.

もう一つの例を示そう：多くの人が信じるのとは逆に、宝飾品購入はゴールド価格動向に無意味だ。

It's monetary demand that sets the price.

 ゴールド価格を決めるのは金融需要だ。

For discussion, please see Speculators Dump Gold But Price Goes Up Anyway. 
この議論に関しては、こちらを見るが良い、投機筋はゴールドを売り込むがゴールド価格はとにかく上昇する。

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