株式が急騰する本当の理由はこれか？



Is This The Real Reason Why Stocks Are Surging?






Wondering why US equity markets are soaring at a pace not seen since the March 2009 lows? Confused by the massive swings higher despite weak macro data, and tumbling earnings expectations?


どうして、２００９年３月の安値以来でみて、米国株式市場の上昇速度は最大なのだろうかと不思議に思っている。マクロデータが弱く収益予想が急落する中で巨額の上昇を不思議に思わないだろうか？


Well, the answer is simple once again, "it's not the economy, it's the central banks, stupid!"

 そう、答えはまたもや簡単なことだ、「それは経済ではない、原因は中央銀行だ、バカヤロー！」

 Q4 2018 saw global stock markets finally wake up to the fact that the world's central banks were withdrawing liquidity and played catch-down to an ugly tightening reality. December's contagion to American stocks was the final straw for the world's elites however  and after the Mnuchin Massacre, it appears the Plunge Protection was ordered back into battle and as the chart below shows - central bank balance sheets suddenly started to grow - aggressively so... and that is what is dragging stocks higher, squeezing shorts at an unprecedented pace, and economically irrationally levitating P/Es despite a wall of uncertainty ahead.

２０１８Q4に世界株式市場はとうとう世界の中央銀行が流動性を引き去っていることに気づき、ひどい引き締めの現実に相場が追いついた。１２月には米国株式市場にも感染し、Mnuchinのまずい対応がトドメを指した、下落防止措置が取られ中央銀行のバランスシートが急に増え始めた・・・これが株式を引き上げ、また巨大なショートスクイーズが起き、不確実性が増えるにもかかわらず経済的には非合理なレベルにPERを押し上げた。


Just like in 2018, 2017, and 2016, the start of the year has prompted a resurgence in the size of global central bank balance sheets... and just like in 2018, 2017, and 2016, global stocks (with US being the most liquid attractor of that flow) are soaring...

２０１６，２０１７，２０１８と同様に年初に世界の中央銀行のバランスシート規模復活となった・・・そして２０１６，２０１７，２０１８と同様に世界株式（米国がこの流動性拡大を最も引きつける）が急騰した・・・


And just remember, The ECB is supposed to be tapering, The Fed is still on 'autopilot' for now, and The BoJ is being forced to taper its buying size...
So WTF is Draghi doing? It's been a month since The ECB was supposed to have halted QE and yet the balance sheet is surging still?

覚えておいてほしいが、ECBはテーパリングをしていると思われており、FEDは今の所「autopilot自動運転状態で、BoJは買い取り規模でテーパリングを余儀なくされている・・・。では一体全体Draghiは何をしているか？ECBはQEを止めたと思われてから一月経つが、でもバランスシートはまだ急騰しているって？



So the simple lesson once again is - watch what they do, not what they say!!
またもやここから学ぶものはシンプルだーー奴らが言うことでなく、やつらがやっていることを見ることだ！！

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