１２月に米国小売急落：この１０年で最大の下落



US Retail Sales Collapse In December: Biggest Drop In A Decade






While Bank of America had warned investors to brace for a dismal retail spending print in January, expectations remained positive (albeit just a 0.1% MoM move) for December's (delayed due to shutdown) official spending data today. As a reminder, on Tuesday we reported that retail sales ex-autos, as measured by the aggregated BAC credit and debit card data, tumbled 0.3% month-over-month seasonally adjusted in January - the biggest drop in three years. This followed a flat reading in retail sales ex-autos in December.


1月にBoAが小売売り売上が小さいことに注意喚起を促したが、政府閉鎖のために開示がおくれた１２月の値はまだ期待をもたせるものだった（MoMで０．１％増えていた）。参考までに言うと、火曜にZeroHedgeが自動車以外の小売を報告したが、それはBACのクレジットカード、デビットカードを合算したものだった、これがMoM季節調整後で０．３％下落した、１月のデータだーーここ３年で最大の下落だった。１２月の自動車外小売は変わらずだった後のものだ。


Turning to the January BAC internal data, in January, spending for 4 out of 14 sectors increased in the month, showing broad-based weakening.

１月のBACの内部データに話を戻すと、この付き、１４セクターの内消費が増えたのは４セクターだった、ということで幅広く弱まっている。

As a reminder, Retail Sales for the Control Group soared in November (+0.9% MoM) so some slowdown was expected; but, the government's official retail spending data for December confirmed BofA's concerns and plunged...

念のために書くと、Retail Sales for the Cnntrol Group(自動車と建設資材を除いた小売）は１１月に急増した（MoMで＋０．９％）ために反動減が予想された；ただ、１２月の政府公式小売データはBoAの懸念を確認するもので下落となった・・・
  • Headline Retail Sales -1.2% MoM (+0.1% MoM exp)
  • Control Group Retail Sales -1.7% MoM (+0.4% MoM exp)
That is the biggest MoM drop in retail sales since 2009 for the headline and the biggest drop in the control group since the 9/11 attacks in 2001!...

この数値は２００９年以来の小売で最大のMoM下落だ、そしてControl Groupとしては２００１年の９／１１アタック以来の最大の下落だ！・・・・


Which sent the Year-over-year retail sales data reeling...

ということでYoY小売データが揺らいでいる・・・・


“These numbers are horrible,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC.


「この数値は恐ろしいものだ、」とWard McCarthyは言う、彼はJefferies LLCの主任経済エコノミスト。
“It appears to contrast quite sharply with reports of Christmastime sales that were generally seen as quite healthy,” and for the Fed, “rate normalization is on the back burner for a long time to come.”
「クリスマス商戦は健全だっったという報告とはまったく異なるものだ、」そしてFEDにとって、「 金利正常化をしばらく後回しにするものだ。」

This is the worst December retail sales print since 2008 (and 2nd worst in history)...

 ２００８年以来最悪の１２月小売だ（そして史上二番目に悪い）・・・・
The disaster was broad-based...

幅広く悪化していた・・・・・・



But most notably, December online internet sales (non-store retailers) tumbled 3.9% MoM - the biggest drop ever

しかし最も顕著なのは、１２月のオンライ売上（非小売）がMoMで３．９％下落したーー過去最悪。

(oddly with Amazon claiming record holiday sales for the same month).
（奇妙なことにアマゾンは同じ月に記録的な売上を報告している）。
Needless to say, this will be a disaster for Q4 GDP forecasts which we now expect to print in the low 1% range.

言うまでもないが、これはQ4GDPがひどいものになるだろう、ZeroHedge
は１％台の低位と予想している。

BofA remains pessimistic:

BoAは悲観的な見方だ」
"While there are a number of special factors that skew the data, the softening of late has revealed the weakest trend for consumer spending since mid-2016."
「データを歪めている特別要因がいくつかあるが、しかし最近の軟化基調は２０１６年半ばから消費支出に見られる。」

And finally, we guarantee the words "pent up demand" will be uttered today on CNBC as the latest excuse for why the US consumer is crushed.


そして最後に、ZeroHedgeはこの言葉「pent up demand 繰り延べ需要」がいま当てはまると信じている、米国消費下落要因としてCNBCが用いたものだ。

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