And yet, Regan's less than prescient headline notwithstanding, he made an accurate point in his teaser, namely that "regular investors are leaving."
That, as we have pounded the table week after week after week, has been the real story of 2019 -
not the relentless, artificial melt-up in the market on the back of a
dovish reversal by central banks and the daily US-China trade talk
"optimism" which we now know is not happening.
Confirming that this trend continued for one more week, even as the
S&P hit new all time highs, Bank of America's strategist Jill Carey
Hall writes that last week, during which the S&P 500 was up +0.2%,
virtually everyone sold stocks, as "Institutional clients, hedge funds
and private clients sold the highs in equities last week." And yet,
somehow the S&P hit a new all time high. How? The answer: "Corporate buybacks ramped up."
このトレンドが更にもう一週続くことを確認して、S&Pが新高値となっても、BoAストラテジストのJill Carey Hallは先週こういう記事を書いた、S&P500が０．２％上昇しほとんど誰もが株式を売る中でこういう記事を書いたのだ、「法人顧客、ヘッジファンド、個人顧客は先週の高値で株式を売った」。それでもS&Pは新高値をつけた。どうしてか？その答えは：「自社株買いが積み上がった。」
As BofA elaborates, "buying was led by corporate buybacks, as
all other groups (hedge funds, institutional and retail clients) were
net sellers of equities for the second consecutive week." This
means that for one more week, traditional investors were - as Regan
noted above - boycotting stocks, and were delighted to sell stock back
to the companies that were once again aggressively buying back their own
stock with the S&P hitting all time highs, to wit:
Clients were net sellers of single stocks (2nd straight week), but continued to buy ETFs (8th straight week). Cumulative flows into ETFs YTD turned positive, reversing outflows seen earlier this year (Chart 1).
Buybacks last week were their highest since early Feb: they tend to
be strong during earnings seasons and seasonally peak in mid/late May. Buybacks YTD are +20% YoY, though the growth rate continues to decline.
But if everyone else was selling, how did buybacks offset the selling
avalanche? Simple: according to BofA's stock repurchase desk, "buybacks
last week were their highest since early Feb: they tend to be strong
during earnings seasons and seasonally peak in mid/late May. Buybacks YTD are +20% YoY, though the growth rate continues to decline."
While this means that we can once and for all forget about the
recurring lie of a buyback blackout period - which as we explained
before applies only to a very narrow subset of stock repurchases - it
also means that we have reached a level of market lethargy where stock
buybacks are powerful enough to offset all other selling. .
多量のオピオイドを米国に送り込み、米国で深刻な麻薬中毒問題を引き起こしています。現代版「阿片戦争」です。あのトヨタ初の女性取締役もオピオイド中毒で逮捕解任されましたよね。 US Is Dependent On China For Almost 80% Of Its Medicine by Tyler Durden Fri, 05/31/2019 - 12:55 Experts are warning that the U.S. has become way too reliant on China for all our medicine , our pain killers, antibiotics, vitamins, aspirin and many cancer treatment medicine. 専門家はこう警告する、米国はすべての医薬品、痛み止め、抗生物質、ビタミン、アスピリン、各種抗がん剤で、中国依存度が高すぎる。 Fox Business reports that according to FDA estimates at least 80 percent of active ingredients found in all of America’s medicine come from abroad, primarily from China . And it’s not just the ingredients, China wants to become the world’s dominant generic drug maker. So far Chinese companies are making generic for everything from high blood pressure to chemotherapy drugs. 90 percent of America’s prescriptions a...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
１００年に一度と言われる出来事が過去２０年で二回も起き、今度が三度目になるかどうか？ Ignore The Yield Curve, They Said… 03-30-19 Written by Lance Roberts | Mar, 30, 2019 A Run For The Highs 高値に向かう Friday wrapped up the first quarter of 2019, and it was the best quarterly performance since 2009. As shown in the chart below, if you bought the bottom, you are “ killing it.” ２０１９Q1も金曜に終わり、２００９年以来最良の四半期だった。下のチャートに示すが、もしみなさんが底値でかっていたなら、「息を呑まんばかりだ」ったろう。 However, you didn’t. しかしながら、そうはしなかったでしょう。 Despite all of the media “hoopla” about the rally, the reality is that for most, they are simply getting back to even over the last year. どのメディアもこのラリーで「大騒ぎ」だが、現実を思い起こすと、これは単に昨年のレベルに戻っただけのことだ。 That is, assuming you didn’t “sell the bottom” in December, which by looking at allocation changes, certainly appears to be the case for many. ということで、みなさんは１２月の「底値で売る」ようなことをしなかったろう、それは多くの人も同じことだ。 If we deconstruct the ratio we can see the rotation a bit better この比率を分析すると資金移動をもう少しよく理解できる Not surpr...
