And yet, Regan's less than prescient headline notwithstanding, he made an accurate point in his teaser, namely that "regular investors are leaving."
That, as we have pounded the table week after week after week, has been the real story of 2019 -
not the relentless, artificial melt-up in the market on the back of a
dovish reversal by central banks and the daily US-China trade talk
"optimism" which we now know is not happening.
Confirming that this trend continued for one more week, even as the
S&P hit new all time highs, Bank of America's strategist Jill Carey
Hall writes that last week, during which the S&P 500 was up +0.2%,
virtually everyone sold stocks, as "Institutional clients, hedge funds
and private clients sold the highs in equities last week." And yet,
somehow the S&P hit a new all time high. How? The answer: "Corporate buybacks ramped up."
このトレンドが更にもう一週続くことを確認して、S&Pが新高値となっても、BoAストラテジストのJill Carey Hallは先週こういう記事を書いた、S&P500が０．２％上昇しほとんど誰もが株式を売る中でこういう記事を書いたのだ、「法人顧客、ヘッジファンド、個人顧客は先週の高値で株式を売った」。それでもS&Pは新高値をつけた。どうしてか？その答えは：「自社株買いが積み上がった。」
As BofA elaborates, "buying was led by corporate buybacks, as
all other groups (hedge funds, institutional and retail clients) were
net sellers of equities for the second consecutive week." This
means that for one more week, traditional investors were - as Regan
noted above - boycotting stocks, and were delighted to sell stock back
to the companies that were once again aggressively buying back their own
stock with the S&P hitting all time highs, to wit:
Clients were net sellers of single stocks (2nd straight week), but continued to buy ETFs (8th straight week). Cumulative flows into ETFs YTD turned positive, reversing outflows seen earlier this year (Chart 1).
Buybacks last week were their highest since early Feb: they tend to
be strong during earnings seasons and seasonally peak in mid/late May. Buybacks YTD are +20% YoY, though the growth rate continues to decline.
But if everyone else was selling, how did buybacks offset the selling
avalanche? Simple: according to BofA's stock repurchase desk, "buybacks
last week were their highest since early Feb: they tend to be strong
during earnings seasons and seasonally peak in mid/late May. Buybacks YTD are +20% YoY, though the growth rate continues to decline."
While this means that we can once and for all forget about the
recurring lie of a buyback blackout period - which as we explained
before applies only to a very narrow subset of stock repurchases - it
also means that we have reached a level of market lethargy where stock
buybacks are powerful enough to offset all other selling. .
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれました。 Big Silver-Stock Potential Adam Hamilton February 7, 2020 2689 Words The silver miners’ stocks are looking interesting. While they really lagged silver’s surge on gold’s bull-market-breakout rally last summer, their upleg since remains intact. Gold stocks’ own upleg peaked in early September. And silver itself remains wildly undervalued relative to gold, overdue to mean revert dramatically higher. When that happens during gold’s next upleg, the silver stocks have big potential to soar. Like the global silver market is vastly smaller than gold’s, silver stocks are a proportionally-little fraction of the precious-metals miners. As a small subset of a usually-ignored contrarian sector, the silver stocks often languish in obscurity. For decades there wasn’t even a silver-stock index, making sector analysis difficult. ...
最後の二段落だけ訳をいれましょう。 Gold-Stock Head Fake? Adam Hamilton January 3, 2020 3174 Words Gold miners’ stocks blasted higher this past week, breaking out of their correction downtrend. Rapidly-improving psychology fueled such strong upside momentum that sector benchmarks are challenging months-old upleg highs. Most traders assume this is righteous, that gold stocks’ next upleg is starting to accelerate. But key indicators argue the contrarian side, that this breakout surge is a head fake within a correction. In early September, a major gold-stock upleg peaked after soaring higher on gold’s decisive bull-market breakout in late June. The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF, this sector’s leading benchmark and trading vehicle, had powered 76.2% higher over 11.8 months. It crested the same day gold’s own upleg did, hitting $30.95 on close. That ma...
最後の２段落だけ訳を入れておきます。 Silver Miners’ Q3’19 Fundamentals Adam Hamilton November 29, 2019 3726 Words The silver miners are finally enjoying higher prevailing silver prices, a great boon for this sector. Silver surged this past summer after gold’s first new bull-market highs in several years rekindled enthusiasm for precious metals. The long-neglected silver stocks rallied strongly with their metal. Their recently-reported Q3’19 results reveal whether those gains are justified, and how much fundamentals improved on higher silver. Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding pr...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
大切な数段落だけ訳しておきます。 Silver Miners’ Q4’18 Fundamentals Adam Hamilton March 29, 2019 4073 Words The major silver miners have rallied higher on balance in recent months, enjoying a young upleg. That’s a welcome change after they suffered a miserable 2018. Times are tough for silver miners, since silver’s prices have languished near extreme lows relative to gold. That has forced many traditional silver miners to increasingly diversify into gold. The major silver miners’ recently-released Q4’18 results illuminate their struggles. Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surr...
