According to Fathom Consulting,
a global independent macro research consultancy, it's proprietary China
Momentum Indicator 2.0 has slowed to 4.6% in June, the lowest reading since Aug. 2016.
独立系世界マクロコンサルタント Fathom Consultingによると、彼ら独自のChina Momentum Indicator 2.0が６月に４．６％まで減速した、２０１５年８月以来の低位だ。
There is also a growing gap between the China Momentum Indicator 2.0 at 4.6% and official GDP data at 6.2%. Might suggest China's economy hasn't yet bottomed, could continue to decline through 2H19 into 1H20.
China Momentum Indicator 2.0の４．６％と公式GDPデータ６．２％の間には大きな乖離がある。ということは中国経済はまだ底入れしていないことを示唆している、２０１９H2から２０２０H1にかけてさらに下落の可能性がある。
Gary Cohn, the former chief economic advisor to Donald Trump, has
said the slowdown predates the trade war and reflects a strategic
decision by China to rebalance the economy.
トランプ政権の元主任経済アドバイザ Gary Cohnによると、中国経済減速は貿易戦争前から始まっており、中国の経済再構築戦略を反映している。
Fathom notes that China's economy was even slowing before the rebalancing. Fathomの報告では、中国経済は再構築前から減速していた。
The global macro research firm said, "with the consumer share of total import demand on a downward trend since 2016, we also find little evidence to suggest that China is successfully rebalancing."
To combat dangerous crosscurrents of the trade war disrupting global
supply chains in and out of China, Chinese policymakers resorted to the
same playbook as before, pump the economy with record amounts of the
stimulus earlier in the year.
Currency depreciation came into the picture when President Trump
escalated the trade war by raising tariffs to 25% from 10% on $200
billion of Chinese goods in May. Then a massive devaluation of the
renminbi followed in early August, when the president slapped 10%
tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods, effective Sept. 1.
"Trade talks are continuing, and during the talks the U.S. will
start, on Sept. 1, putting a small additional Tariff of 10% on the
remaining 300 Billion Dollars of goods and products coming from China
into our Country...We look forward to continuing our positive dialogue
with China on a comprehensive Trade Deal, and feel that the future
between our two countries will be a very bright one!" Trump said in a
tweet last month.
Since the trade war began last March, the renminbi has
weakened 13% against the U.S. dollar, neutralizing some of the tariffs
imposed by the U.S. on imports from China. 昨年３月に貿易戦争が始まって以来、人民元は対米ドルで１３％弱くなっている、これが米国の関税強化をある程度緩和している。
Currency devaluation undermines hopes for a soft landing, while
further infuriating the Trump administration who has recently branded
China as a currency manipulator.
And for more bad news, China has said its rebalancing will continue
through 2020 and offered a pessimistic view of how Beijing won't sign a
trade deal until after the November 2020 election. This would almost
guarantee China is allowing its export economy to weaken while
stimulating its domestic economy, all in the attempt to trigger a
recession in the U.S. to diminish President Trump's probabilities of
getting reelected.
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