Last
Friday afternoon, when what few traders were not on vacation were
planning the venue of their evening alcohol consumption, we showed a remarkable analysis by Bank of America, which found that yields on the $27.8 trillion non-USD global
investment grade bond market had declined to just 16bps and that the US
share of global investment grade yields has climbed to 94%. But the
punchline is that, as we said, "non-USD sovereign yields had
dropped to just 2bps, meaning that any day now foreign sovereign debt
may have no yield at all on average."
Fast forward to Monday, when following another surge in global bond
prices, Bank of America refreshed its analysis, and foudn that the
striking trends noted last week had become even more fascinating, to wit
yields on the $27.8tn non-USD global IG fixed income market had
declined to just 11bps (down from 16bps just one day earlier)...
... and the US share of global IG yields climbed to 95%...
... meaning that any foreign investor who is desperate for even the
smallest trace of positive yield has no choice but to come to the US,
something Kyle Bass echoed earlier on CNBC: "US rates are going to zero
because they are the only DM yields with an integer in front of them."
But the biggest shock is that for Albert Edwards, vindication is here
if only outside the US for now: as per the BofA update, non-USD
sovereign yields on $19 trillion in global debt - which was a paltry but
positive +0.02% on Friday - have now turned negative on average for the
first time ever at -3bps.
The silver lining: for now the average US sovereign yield is like a
beacon for foreign investors, offering a "juicy" 1.59% but we fully
expect this number to keep dropping as offshore pension funds rush to
lock in positive yields while they can; naturally any further Fed rate
cuts or "some QE" will only bring the US D-Day that much closer.
It's not just us: commenting on the Japanification of the world, Bank
of America's Hans Mikkelsen wrote that "we continue to think there is a
wall of new money being forced into the global corporate bond market"
and adds that "the trigger is lower interest rate volatility or simply
the passage of time, as a lot of foreign investors are being charged
(negative yields) for being underinvested."
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Junk Bond Bubble In Pictures: Deflation Up Next by Tyler Durden Fri, 07/19/2019 - 14:37 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, The widely discussed "everything bubble" is, in reality, a corporate junk bond bubble on steroids sponsored by the Fed ... 幅広く議論されている「everything bubble」は実際に企業ジャンク・ボンドバブルにも言えることであり、これはFEDによりドーピング注入されている・・・ The highest grade AAA corporate bonds yield 2.75%. BBB-rated corporate bonds, just one step above junk, 3.5%. BB-rated bonds yield just 4.28%. 最高級ランクAAA企業債権の金利は２．７５％だ。あとひとランク悪化でジャンク・ボンド入りするBBB債権金利は３．５％。BB格付け債権の金利でもわずか４．２８％でしかない。 Corporate Bond Spreads 企業債権金利のスプレッド The spread between Prime AAA bonds and lower-medium grade bonds (see chart below) is just 0.77 percentage points. 最上位AAA債権と低中ランク債権のスプレッドがわずか０．７７％しかない。 The spre...
結局、中国は隣国日本で２０年前に起きたことを学んでいなかったということでしょう、というかどの国もどの政府も十分成熟するまでは「わかっちゃいるけどやめられない」ということでしょうね、きっと。 Spooked By Apple? Wait ‘Til China’s Bubble Bursts Written by Jesse Colombo | Jan, 3, 2019 Apple stock plunged nearly 10% on Thursday after the company cut its revenue forecast due to slowing iPhone sales in China. Apple’s woes dragged U.S. stock indices lower by more than 2% as fears of a more extensive China-driven slowdown spread. アップルの株価は火曜に約１０％下落した、同社が中国でのiPhone売上原則を予想したためだ。アップルの弱さが米国株式指数を２％以上押し下げた、中国主導でさらなる原則が広がるのではという懸念からだ。 From the New York Times : ニューヨークタイムスによると： For years, no matter what was happening elsewhere, global companies bet billions upon billions of dollars that China’s consumers would keep spending money. 長年、他国で何が起きようとも多国籍企業は中国消費は巨額を維持することに賭けてきた。 Now, just when the world economy could use their financial firepower, they are no longer so quick to open their wallets. 今や、世界経済が金融弾薬を用いてももはや彼らの財布を緩めることはできない。 The latest sign of a slowdown in...
Gold Stocks Surge Higher Adam Hamilton February 22, 2019 2932 Words The gold miners’ stocks surged strongly this week, blasting to new upleg highs. The mounting gains are naturally driving more interest in this small contrarian sector, shifting sentiment towards bullish. Despite their accelerating rally, gold stocks still remain fairly low technically and deeply undervalued relative to gold. So their strengthening upleg likely has plenty of room to run considerably higher in coming months. 今週金鉱株は力強く上昇し新高値となった。上昇が積み上がりこの小さなコントラリアンセクターはさらに注目を集めている、これが心理を強気なものにする。ラリーが加速するが、金鉱株はテクニカル的にはまだ安値で、対ゴールドでとても過小評価されている。というわけで力強い上昇は今後数ヶ月まだかなりな上昇余地がある。 The gold miners’ stocks are ultimately leveraged plays on gold, which overwhelmingly drives their profits. The much-maligned yellow metal has enjoyed a strong upleg since mid-August, when record gold-futures s...
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれておきました。 Fed’s Risky QE4 Stock Ramp Adam Hamilton January 31, 2020 3567 Words The US stock markets dramatically surged mostly in a straight line since mid-October. This extraordinary rally started when the Federal Reserve announced it would resume expanding its balance sheet for the first time in years. The deluge of new liquidity from that quantitative-easing bond buying has again acted like rocket fuel for stock markets. After shooting vertically they are in real trouble when the Fed pulls back. In early October the flagship US S&P 500 stock index (SPX) slumped to 2888. That was a mild 4.6% pullback from late July’s latest record high. The SPX was still having a great year though, up 15.2% year-to-date at that point thanks to extreme Fed easing . After the SPX had plunged 19.8% mostly in Q4’18 in a severe near-bear cor...
