Last
Friday afternoon, when what few traders were not on vacation were
planning the venue of their evening alcohol consumption, we showed a remarkable analysis by Bank of America, which found that yields on the $27.8 trillion non-USD global
investment grade bond market had declined to just 16bps and that the US
share of global investment grade yields has climbed to 94%. But the
punchline is that, as we said, "non-USD sovereign yields had
dropped to just 2bps, meaning that any day now foreign sovereign debt
may have no yield at all on average."
Fast forward to Monday, when following another surge in global bond
prices, Bank of America refreshed its analysis, and foudn that the
striking trends noted last week had become even more fascinating, to wit
yields on the $27.8tn non-USD global IG fixed income market had
declined to just 11bps (down from 16bps just one day earlier)...
... and the US share of global IG yields climbed to 95%...
... meaning that any foreign investor who is desperate for even the
smallest trace of positive yield has no choice but to come to the US,
something Kyle Bass echoed earlier on CNBC: "US rates are going to zero
because they are the only DM yields with an integer in front of them."
But the biggest shock is that for Albert Edwards, vindication is here
if only outside the US for now: as per the BofA update, non-USD
sovereign yields on $19 trillion in global debt - which was a paltry but
positive +0.02% on Friday - have now turned negative on average for the
first time ever at -3bps.
The silver lining: for now the average US sovereign yield is like a
beacon for foreign investors, offering a "juicy" 1.59% but we fully
expect this number to keep dropping as offshore pension funds rush to
lock in positive yields while they can; naturally any further Fed rate
cuts or "some QE" will only bring the US D-Day that much closer.
It's not just us: commenting on the Japanification of the world, Bank
of America's Hans Mikkelsen wrote that "we continue to think there is a
wall of new money being forced into the global corporate bond market"
and adds that "the trigger is lower interest rate volatility or simply
the passage of time, as a lot of foreign investors are being charged
(negative yields) for being underinvested."
文章全体がZeroHedge特有の皮肉で満ちています。 Global Earnings Downgrades At Highest Level In 10 Years by Tyler Durden Thu, 01/10/2019 - 16:45 As stock markets plunged in December, asset-gatherers and commission-takers (and politicians) rushed on to every media outlet to reassure everyone that the fundamentals are "solid", "extremely strong", "very positive" ... pick your spin. The only problem is that top-down, the fundamentals are dismally disappointing... １２月の株式急落で、株式を買い集めている人、手数料狙いの人（そして政治家）はメディアに出ずっぱりで誰もにこう訴えた、ファンダメンタルズは「健全」、「とても強い」、「とてもポジティブ」・・・みなさんもこれに振り回された。唯一の問題はこれらは上意下達であることだ、実際のファンダメンタルズは悲しいかな失望するものだ・・・・ And bottom-up, the fundamentals are almost as bad as they have ever been as analysts take the ax to their outlooks... the number of analysts’ global earnings downgrades exceeded upgrades by the most since 2...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
