Authored by Gordon Watts via The Asia Times, For many poor nations, it is a long and winding road to ‘debt’ and ‘corruption.’ A
journey littered with economic potholes in the shape of China’s
signature foreign policy project which was unveiled by President Xi
Jinping six years ago.
In short, the US$1 trillion Belt and Road Initiative,
along with other foreign funding, has become a magical mystery tour,
baffling the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Or,
according to critics, a diplomatic car crash waiting to happen. 簡単に言うと、USD１T規模の一帯一路計画だ、他国投資も巻き込み、魔法の旅が始まった、世界銀行もIMFをも当惑させるものだった。もしくは、批評家に言わせると、外交的な自動車事故カークラッシュが待ち構えている。
“Compared with China’s dominance in world trade, its expanding role in global finance is poorly documented and understood,” a report released last week by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy stated.
“Over the past decades, China has exported record amounts
of capital to the rest of the world. Many of these financial flows are
not reported to the IMF, the BIS [the Bank for International
Settlements] or the World Bank,” authors Sebastian Horn,
of Munich’s Ludwig Maximilian University, Carmen M Reinhart, of the
Harvard Kennedy School in the United States, and Christoph Trebesch, of
the Kiel Institute for the World Economyin Germany, wrote.
「中国の世界貿易覇権に比べると、世界金融市場に与える影響がほとんど文書化されておらず理解もされていない、」と先週 the Kiel Institure for the World Economyが述べた。「過去１０年、中国は記録的な額の資金を海外に投じてきた。これらの資金フローの多くはIMFやBISそして世界銀行にも報告されていない、と著者たちは述べる、Munich Ludwig Maximilian UniversityのSebastian Horn，米国ハーバード大学のCarmen MReinhart、ドイツKiel Institure for the World EconomyのChristoph Trebeschたちだ。
“‘Hidden debts’ to China are especially significant for
about three dozen developing countries, and distort the risk assessment
in both policy surveillance and the market pricing of sovereign debt,” the working paper added.
The study then went on to highlight that China is now the world’s largest creditor. A breakdown of the numbers showed that lending soared to around US$5 trillion by 2018 from roughly $500 billion in 2000, which dwarfs World Bank and IMF credit lines. この報告書では中国を今や世界最大の貸主だと言う。数値を分析すると貸し出し学は２０１８年にUSD5Tにもなり、２０００年の＄５００Bから大きく増えている、これは世界銀行やIMFの貸し出し限度を遥かに超えるものだ。
“This dramatic increase in Chinese official lending and investment is almost unprecedented in peacetime history,”
the report revealed. “Lower-income developing economies mostly receive
direct loans from China’s state-owned banks, often at market rates and
backed by collateral such as oil,” the report revealed.
“Our new dataset covers a total of 1,974 Chinese loans and 2,947
Chinese grants to 152 countries from 1949 to 2017. We find that about
one-half of China’s overseas loans to the developing world are
‘hidden,’” it continued.
“A main challenge to explore China’s large-scale official lending boom is its opacity.
Unlike the United States, the Chinese government does not release data
on its lending activities abroad or those of its government entities. No
data is therefore available from the creditor side,” the working paper
added.
Indeed, the lack of transparency has become an issue with the Belt and Road Initiative. Launched
in a fanfare of state-media hype in 2013, the BRI is epic in scale and
has become an extension of China’s global ambitions.
Crucial to the program are strands of the ‘New Silk Road’
superhighways connecting the world’s second-largest economy with 70
nations and 4.4 billion people across Asia, Africa, the Middle East and
Europe in a maze of multi-billion-dollar infrastructure projects, including a web of digital links.
Yet in the past 18 months, the venture has been mired in controversy after being branded a “debt trap” by the US and its key Western allies.
ここ１８か月間、この冒険は米国やその同盟国から「債務の罠」であるという論争に巻き込まれた。
“Similarly, China does not provide details on its Belt and Road Initiative and its direct lending activities,” the study by the Kiel Institute pointed out.
「同時に、中国は一帯一路の詳細を開示せずまた直接貸し出し活動も開示しない、」と the Kiel Instituteは指摘する。
“Apart from the aforementioned omissions in reporting to the Paris
Club, China does not divulge data on its official flows with the OECD’s
Creditor Reporting System, and it is not part of the OECD [Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development] Export Credit Group, which
provides data on long- and short-term trade credit flows,” it continued.
「これまで述べたこととは別に、the Paris Clubにも報告していない、中国はOECDのCreditor Reporting Systemにもデータを開示していない、またOECDの Export Credit Groupにも参加していない、この組織は超短期貿易与信データを提供している、」と書かれている。
“With regard to cross-border banking, China recently joined
the list of countries reporting to the BIS, but the data [has] not
[been] made available on a bilateral basis and the coverage is
incomplete. Taken together, these data limitations make it very
challenging to do rigorous empirical work on China’s official capital
exports,” the report added.
A graphic from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy report. 上の図はthe Kiel InstituteがWorld Economy 報告書に掲載したものだ。
Last year, a comprehensive study released by the Center for Global Development, a Washington-based think tank, singled out 23 countries prone to “debt distress.” Of the group, Pakistan, Djibouti, the Maldives, Laos,
Mongolia, Montenegro, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan were rated in the “high
risk” category.
Sri Lanka was another after it handed over control of the Hambantota
Port to China’s state-owned Merchants Port Holdings at the end of 2017
under the weight of massive loans.
昨年のことだ、ワシントンを拠点とするシンクタンク、the Center for Global Developmentから詳細な研究が開示された、２３の国が「債務に苦しみ」始めている。「ハイランク」に分類されるのは、パキスタン、ジブチ、マルディブ、ラオス、モンゴル、モンテネグロ、タジキスタンそしてキルギスタンだ。２０１７年に多額債務似苦しみ、スリランカはHambantota 港を中国国有企業 Merchants Port Holdingに明け渡した。
Stung by phrases such as “debt book diplomacy,” Beijing has
again pledged to increase transparency when it comes to commercial
funding.
During a keynote speech at the annual BRI Forum in the National Convention Center in Beijing, Xi addressed mounting concerns in front of foreign dignitaries.
“The Belt and Road is an initiative for economic cooperation, instead of a geopolitical alliance or military league, and it is an open and inclusive process rather than an exclusive bloc or ‘China club’,” he said in April.
“Everything should be done in a transparent way and we should have zero tolerance for corruption.”
「すべてが透明で且つ汚職とは無縁でなければならない。」
Since then, the ruling Communist Party has announced plans to expand its anti-corruption campaign to BRI projects.
それ以来、共産党は反腐敗キャンペーンを一帯一路プロジェクトにも拡大すると広報した。
In the past, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection had
limited involvement in the program but that is starting to change.
かつては、中央規律監視委員会CCDIがこのプロジェクトへの関与を制限していたが、方針を変え始めた。
“How can you strike hard on corruption here at home and give a
free hand to Chinese people and business groups [that are] reckless
abroad,” La Yifan, the director-general for international co-operation at the CCDI, told the Financial Times last week. “Part of the campaign is to go after corruption and stolen assets abroad. “[We aim to] create a network of law enforcement of all these Belt and Road countries,” he added.
So, will this long and winding road finally have flashing warning
signs of “debt” and “corruption?” Or will this continue to be a highway
to economic hell? BRI nations might want to buckle up for a bumpy ride.
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