Too
bad Kyle Bass closed his yuan short earlier this year. If he had held
that position, he would have made a killing on Monday, when the Chinese
currency broke below 7 to the dollar and continued to tumble as the currency war between the world's two largest economies officially began.
Though Bass insists that the HKD, against which he has taken a large
position betting that its more than 30-year-old peg against the dollar
will soon break, won't be far behind the yuan now that Beijing has
seemingly stopped supporting the formerly tightly controlled yuan, the
hedge fund manager, who still probably profited off his short positions
against the currencies of several regional rivals, appeared on CNBC's
"the Closing Bell' Monday afternoon to talk China.
BassはHKDにまだ大きなポジションを取っており、３０年以上対ドルペッグしてきたが、これがすぐに壊れるだろうとBassは主張するが、いまやHKDもやがて人民元に沿う遅れは取らないだろう、というのも北京政府は人民元を厳格に操作することを止めたように見える、と the hedge fund manager がCNBCの「the Closing Bell」で月曜午後に中国に関して話した、彼はみずからのショートポジションで多分利益を出している。
Inviting Bass to speak made sense: He's established himself as one of
the most prominent China bears in the West, even joining with Steve
Bannon to warn investors and ordinary people of the dangers of China's
constant manipulation of the US. And during Friday's interview, which
came as US stocks locked in their worst daily performance of the year, Bass explained how the yuan could sink another 30% or 40% if Beijing completely abandons supporting it. Bassを話者として招待したのは良いタイミングだ：彼は自らを最も著名な中国ベア論者として名を馳せた、Steve Bannonとともに投資家に中国の為替操作の危険性をずっと警告し続けてきた。そして金曜のインタビューで、その日は米国株式市場の今年最悪の日だったが、Bassはこう解説した、もし北京政府が自国通貨維持操作をまったく諦めるなら、人民元はさらに３０％から４０％下落するだろう。
As Bass explained, President Trump's claim that Beijing manipulates its currency is accurate.
Bassはこう解説する、北京政府が為替を操作しているとトランプ大統領が主張するのは正しい。
"What’s happening in China is they have to have dollars to sell to
buy their own currency to hold it up. If they were to ever free float
their currency, I think it would drop 30% or 40%," Bass told CNBC’s "Closing Bell."
"And the reason is they claim to be 15% of global GDP in dollar
terms, but less than 1% of global transactions settled in their own
currency," Bass added. "And so, they prop their currency
up...everyone calling them a currency manipulator – they are trying to
hold this whole thing together."
For the first time since 2008, the exchange rate for China's onshore
yuan sunk below 7 to the dollar on Monday. Pressure on the yuan started
last week after President Trump said he would slap tariffs on another
~$300 billion of Chinese imports. It accelerated on Monday when Beijing
announced that it would cancel agricultural purchases promised as part
of the latest trade war detente.
Bass has warned American corporations not to pressure the Trump
Administration to strike a deal with China. He added that Beijing has a
history of never living up to its promises re: trade since joining the
WTO since 2001.
“Every deal that the Chinese have signed up with us since their
inception into the WTO since 2001, China never lives up to their
promises,” he said on July 25. “At some point in time, one of our
administrative officials is going to hold their feet to the fire and
this is kind of a battle of cultures because the Communist Party doesn’t
want to submit themselves to anything measurable or enforceable.”
"If the Chinese run out of dollars, they need dollars to buy everything that they import..." Bass said.
「もし中国でドルが枯渇すると、輸入ができなくなってしまい困ることになる・・・」とBassは言った。
He then referenced South Korea back in the 90s during the runup to
the Asian currency crisis: South Korea infamously kept USD on its
balance sheet after loaning them out to their banks, making their pile
of dollar FX reserves an illusion.
Something similar is happening now with China, Bass said.
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