Too
bad Kyle Bass closed his yuan short earlier this year. If he had held
that position, he would have made a killing on Monday, when the Chinese
currency broke below 7 to the dollar and continued to tumble as the currency war between the world's two largest economies officially began.
Though Bass insists that the HKD, against which he has taken a large
position betting that its more than 30-year-old peg against the dollar
will soon break, won't be far behind the yuan now that Beijing has
seemingly stopped supporting the formerly tightly controlled yuan, the
hedge fund manager, who still probably profited off his short positions
against the currencies of several regional rivals, appeared on CNBC's
"the Closing Bell' Monday afternoon to talk China.
BassはHKDにまだ大きなポジションを取っており、３０年以上対ドルペッグしてきたが、これがすぐに壊れるだろうとBassは主張するが、いまやHKDもやがて人民元に沿う遅れは取らないだろう、というのも北京政府は人民元を厳格に操作することを止めたように見える、と the hedge fund manager がCNBCの「the Closing Bell」で月曜午後に中国に関して話した、彼はみずからのショートポジションで多分利益を出している。
Inviting Bass to speak made sense: He's established himself as one of
the most prominent China bears in the West, even joining with Steve
Bannon to warn investors and ordinary people of the dangers of China's
constant manipulation of the US. And during Friday's interview, which
came as US stocks locked in their worst daily performance of the year, Bass explained how the yuan could sink another 30% or 40% if Beijing completely abandons supporting it. Bassを話者として招待したのは良いタイミングだ：彼は自らを最も著名な中国ベア論者として名を馳せた、Steve Bannonとともに投資家に中国の為替操作の危険性をずっと警告し続けてきた。そして金曜のインタビューで、その日は米国株式市場の今年最悪の日だったが、Bassはこう解説した、もし北京政府が自国通貨維持操作をまったく諦めるなら、人民元はさらに３０％から４０％下落するだろう。
As Bass explained, President Trump's claim that Beijing manipulates its currency is accurate.
Bassはこう解説する、北京政府が為替を操作しているとトランプ大統領が主張するのは正しい。
"What’s happening in China is they have to have dollars to sell to
buy their own currency to hold it up. If they were to ever free float
their currency, I think it would drop 30% or 40%," Bass told CNBC’s "Closing Bell."
"And the reason is they claim to be 15% of global GDP in dollar
terms, but less than 1% of global transactions settled in their own
currency," Bass added. "And so, they prop their currency
up...everyone calling them a currency manipulator – they are trying to
hold this whole thing together."
For the first time since 2008, the exchange rate for China's onshore
yuan sunk below 7 to the dollar on Monday. Pressure on the yuan started
last week after President Trump said he would slap tariffs on another
~$300 billion of Chinese imports. It accelerated on Monday when Beijing
announced that it would cancel agricultural purchases promised as part
of the latest trade war detente.
Bass has warned American corporations not to pressure the Trump
Administration to strike a deal with China. He added that Beijing has a
history of never living up to its promises re: trade since joining the
WTO since 2001.
“Every deal that the Chinese have signed up with us since their
inception into the WTO since 2001, China never lives up to their
promises,” he said on July 25. “At some point in time, one of our
administrative officials is going to hold their feet to the fire and
this is kind of a battle of cultures because the Communist Party doesn’t
want to submit themselves to anything measurable or enforceable.”
"If the Chinese run out of dollars, they need dollars to buy everything that they import..." Bass said.
「もし中国でドルが枯渇すると、輸入ができなくなってしまい困ることになる・・・」とBassは言った。
He then referenced South Korea back in the 90s during the runup to
the Asian currency crisis: South Korea infamously kept USD on its
balance sheet after loaning them out to their banks, making their pile
of dollar FX reserves an illusion.
Something similar is happening now with China, Bass said.
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Junk Bond Bubble In Pictures: Deflation Up Next by Tyler Durden Fri, 07/19/2019 - 14:37 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, The widely discussed "everything bubble" is, in reality, a corporate junk bond bubble on steroids sponsored by the Fed ... 幅広く議論されている「everything bubble」は実際に企業ジャンク・ボンドバブルにも言えることであり、これはFEDによりドーピング注入されている・・・ The highest grade AAA corporate bonds yield 2.75%. BBB-rated corporate bonds, just one step above junk, 3.5%. BB-rated bonds yield just 4.28%. 最高級ランクAAA企業債権の金利は２．７５％だ。あとひとランク悪化でジャンク・ボンド入りするBBB債権金利は３．５％。BB格付け債権の金利でもわずか４．２８％でしかない。 Corporate Bond Spreads 企業債権金利のスプレッド The spread between Prime AAA bonds and lower-medium grade bonds (see chart below) is just 0.77 percentage points. 最上位AAA債権と低中ランク債権のスプレッドがわずか０．７７％しかない。 The spre...
結局、中国は隣国日本で２０年前に起きたことを学んでいなかったということでしょう、というかどの国もどの政府も十分成熟するまでは「わかっちゃいるけどやめられない」ということでしょうね、きっと。 Spooked By Apple? Wait ‘Til China’s Bubble Bursts Written by Jesse Colombo | Jan, 3, 2019 Apple stock plunged nearly 10% on Thursday after the company cut its revenue forecast due to slowing iPhone sales in China. Apple’s woes dragged U.S. stock indices lower by more than 2% as fears of a more extensive China-driven slowdown spread. アップルの株価は火曜に約１０％下落した、同社が中国でのiPhone売上原則を予想したためだ。アップルの弱さが米国株式指数を２％以上押し下げた、中国主導でさらなる原則が広がるのではという懸念からだ。 From the New York Times : ニューヨークタイムスによると： For years, no matter what was happening elsewhere, global companies bet billions upon billions of dollars that China’s consumers would keep spending money. 長年、他国で何が起きようとも多国籍企業は中国消費は巨額を維持することに賭けてきた。 Now, just when the world economy could use their financial firepower, they are no longer so quick to open their wallets. 今や、世界経済が金融弾薬を用いてももはや彼らの財布を緩めることはできない。 The latest sign of a slowdown in...
Gold Stocks Surge Higher Adam Hamilton February 22, 2019 2932 Words The gold miners’ stocks surged strongly this week, blasting to new upleg highs. The mounting gains are naturally driving more interest in this small contrarian sector, shifting sentiment towards bullish. Despite their accelerating rally, gold stocks still remain fairly low technically and deeply undervalued relative to gold. So their strengthening upleg likely has plenty of room to run considerably higher in coming months. 今週金鉱株は力強く上昇し新高値となった。上昇が積み上がりこの小さなコントラリアンセクターはさらに注目を集めている、これが心理を強気なものにする。ラリーが加速するが、金鉱株はテクニカル的にはまだ安値で、対ゴールドでとても過小評価されている。というわけで力強い上昇は今後数ヶ月まだかなりな上昇余地がある。 The gold miners’ stocks are ultimately leveraged plays on gold, which overwhelmingly drives their profits. The much-maligned yellow metal has enjoyed a strong upleg since mid-August, when record gold-futures s...
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれておきました。 Fed’s Risky QE4 Stock Ramp Adam Hamilton January 31, 2020 3567 Words The US stock markets dramatically surged mostly in a straight line since mid-October. This extraordinary rally started when the Federal Reserve announced it would resume expanding its balance sheet for the first time in years. The deluge of new liquidity from that quantitative-easing bond buying has again acted like rocket fuel for stock markets. After shooting vertically they are in real trouble when the Fed pulls back. In early October the flagship US S&P 500 stock index (SPX) slumped to 2888. That was a mild 4.6% pullback from late July’s latest record high. The SPX was still having a great year though, up 15.2% year-to-date at that point thanks to extreme Fed easing . After the SPX had plunged 19.8% mostly in Q4’18 in a severe near-bear cor...
