Too
bad Kyle Bass closed his yuan short earlier this year. If he had held
that position, he would have made a killing on Monday, when the Chinese
currency broke below 7 to the dollar and continued to tumble as the currency war between the world's two largest economies officially began.
Though Bass insists that the HKD, against which he has taken a large
position betting that its more than 30-year-old peg against the dollar
will soon break, won't be far behind the yuan now that Beijing has
seemingly stopped supporting the formerly tightly controlled yuan, the
hedge fund manager, who still probably profited off his short positions
against the currencies of several regional rivals, appeared on CNBC's
"the Closing Bell' Monday afternoon to talk China.
BassはHKDにまだ大きなポジションを取っており、３０年以上対ドルペッグしてきたが、これがすぐに壊れるだろうとBassは主張するが、いまやHKDもやがて人民元に沿う遅れは取らないだろう、というのも北京政府は人民元を厳格に操作することを止めたように見える、と the hedge fund manager がCNBCの「the Closing Bell」で月曜午後に中国に関して話した、彼はみずからのショートポジションで多分利益を出している。
Inviting Bass to speak made sense: He's established himself as one of
the most prominent China bears in the West, even joining with Steve
Bannon to warn investors and ordinary people of the dangers of China's
constant manipulation of the US. And during Friday's interview, which
came as US stocks locked in their worst daily performance of the year, Bass explained how the yuan could sink another 30% or 40% if Beijing completely abandons supporting it. Bassを話者として招待したのは良いタイミングだ：彼は自らを最も著名な中国ベア論者として名を馳せた、Steve Bannonとともに投資家に中国の為替操作の危険性をずっと警告し続けてきた。そして金曜のインタビューで、その日は米国株式市場の今年最悪の日だったが、Bassはこう解説した、もし北京政府が自国通貨維持操作をまったく諦めるなら、人民元はさらに３０％から４０％下落するだろう。
As Bass explained, President Trump's claim that Beijing manipulates its currency is accurate.
Bassはこう解説する、北京政府が為替を操作しているとトランプ大統領が主張するのは正しい。
"What’s happening in China is they have to have dollars to sell to
buy their own currency to hold it up. If they were to ever free float
their currency, I think it would drop 30% or 40%," Bass told CNBC’s "Closing Bell."
"And the reason is they claim to be 15% of global GDP in dollar
terms, but less than 1% of global transactions settled in their own
currency," Bass added. "And so, they prop their currency
up...everyone calling them a currency manipulator – they are trying to
hold this whole thing together."
For the first time since 2008, the exchange rate for China's onshore
yuan sunk below 7 to the dollar on Monday. Pressure on the yuan started
last week after President Trump said he would slap tariffs on another
~$300 billion of Chinese imports. It accelerated on Monday when Beijing
announced that it would cancel agricultural purchases promised as part
of the latest trade war detente.
Bass has warned American corporations not to pressure the Trump
Administration to strike a deal with China. He added that Beijing has a
history of never living up to its promises re: trade since joining the
WTO since 2001.
“Every deal that the Chinese have signed up with us since their
inception into the WTO since 2001, China never lives up to their
promises,” he said on July 25. “At some point in time, one of our
administrative officials is going to hold their feet to the fire and
this is kind of a battle of cultures because the Communist Party doesn’t
want to submit themselves to anything measurable or enforceable.”
"If the Chinese run out of dollars, they need dollars to buy everything that they import..." Bass said.
「もし中国でドルが枯渇すると、輸入ができなくなってしまい困ることになる・・・」とBassは言った。
He then referenced South Korea back in the 90s during the runup to
the Asian currency crisis: South Korea infamously kept USD on its
balance sheet after loaning them out to their banks, making their pile
of dollar FX reserves an illusion.
Something similar is happening now with China, Bass said.
How Are Gold And Money Supply Related? by Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2020 - 13:00 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, M2 Money Supply is surging. Will gold follow? M2マネーサプライが急増している。ゴールドはこれを追従するだろうか？ Let's investigate an alleged relationship between gold and M2, a measure of money supply in the US. よく言われるM2（米国のマネーサプライ指標）とゴールドの関係について調べてみよう。 "There’s a clear correlation between the annual growth rate in M2 money supply and the price of the yellow metal. " 「M2の年率増加速度とゴールド価格の間には明らかな相関がある。」 Clear Correlation? 明らかな相関？ The Tweet claims something different than my lead chart depicts. So let's investigate the above idea in other time frames. このツイートの主張は私が示す最初のチャートが示すものとは異なる。というわけでこのtweetの主張を別の時間フレームで見てみよう。 Gold vs Rate of Change in M2 Money Supply ゴールド vs M2マネーサプライの変化率 If we look at longer time frames, the rate of increase in M2 theory falls flat on its face....
Is The Stock Market As Confused As You Are About A Recession? Written by Lance Roberts | Apr, 1, 2019 Last week, Barron’s ran an article entitled “The Stock Market Is Just As Confused About A Potential Recession As You Are?” To wit: 先週バロンズにこういう記事が掲載された「株式市場は景気後退を予感させるほどに混乱しているだろうか？」見てみよう： “Investors have long used where we are in the economic cycle to decide which stocks to buy and sell. New research from Nomura’s Joseph Mezrich flips that on its head by showing how investors can use stock performance to help determine where we are in the cycle. Too bad the market is sending mixed messages right now.” 長らく投資家は現在景気サイクルのどこに居るかを見てこの株式を売るか買うかを判断してきた。野村證券のJoseph Mezrichの最近の研究では、これが逆さで、投資家は株式のパフォーマンスを見て今景気サイクルのどこにいるかを判断している。最悪なことに現在相場は悪化改善混在のメッセージを送っている。」 But let’s be clear here; no one wants the party to end. So, despite a struggling stock market over the last year, slowing economic growth, and a collapsing yield curve, there are s...
