The reason why I say that is the money supply is up, up, and up. You know, with the efforts by these central banks to lower interest rates they’re going to be printing like crazy.”
私が皆に推奨する理由はマネーサプライが up, up and up 状態だからだ。御存知の通り、どの中央銀行も金利を下げようとしておりまた常軌を逸した紙幣印刷をしようとしている。
[Jerome Powell] is trying to pretend it’s because of concerns
about the overseas economy. It is really the US economy that is driving
the Fed. That’s why this is just the first step on the road
back to zero. And you know, it was a mistake when the Fed went back to
zero the last time; it’s going to be an even bigger mistake when they do
it next time. And they’re also going to go back to quantitative easing.
You know, they announced yesterday the end of quantitative tightening,
but the next step is to go back to QE, and QE 4 is going to be bigger than QE 1, 2 and 3 combined.”
The Fed isn’t alone on the path toward more monetary stimulus. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal,
Finnish central bank governor Olli Rehn raised the prospect of new
easing measures from the European Central Bank. He said, “It’s important
that we come up with a significant and impactful policy package in
September. When you’re working with financial markets, it’s often better
to overshoot than undershoot, and better to have a very strong package
of policy measures than to tinker.”
さらなる金融刺激策に向かっているのはFEDだけではない。Wall Street Jounalのインタビューに答えて、フィンランドの中央銀行総裁Olli RehnはECBにおける新たな緩和可能性が高まっていると答えた。更に彼はこう言う、「大切なことだが、我々はインパクトの在る政策パッケージを９月に準備している。金融市場で働いているならわかるだろうが、アンダーシュートよりもオーバーシュートのほうが望ましい、そして想像を超えた強い政策パッケージが望ましい。」
During the Bloomberg interview, Mobius also addressed the proliferation of cryptocurrencies. He said he believes the rise of bitcoin and other cryptos will actually be good for gold.
You have all these currencies, new currencies coming into play. I
call them ‘psycho currencies,’ because it’s a matter of faith whether
you believe in Bitcoin or any of the other cyber-currencies. I
think with the rise of that, there’s going to be a demand for real, hard
assets, and that includes gold because gold can play a role not only as
an asset but also as a currency.”
Mobius said investors should have at least 10% of their portfolio in gold.
Mobiusは投資家に少なくともポートフォリオの１０％をゴールドにするべきだと主張した。
“I’m talking about physical gold,” he said.
彼が言うには「私が話しているのは現物ゴールドだ」ということだ。
Peter Schiff has been advising this for a long time. Currently, only
about 1% of the world’s investable capital is in gold. Peter has said
it would be wise to make the move sooner rather than later.
Peter Schiffは長年こういうふうにアドバイスしてきた。現在のところ世界の投資資金の内ゴールドの占める割合は１％程度でしかない。Peterは先延ばしせずにすぐに行動することが賢明だという。
If the idea goes mainstream, and all investors go to a 10%
gold allocation, the price will skyrocket. Investors need to move
quickly to get ahead of the crowd.”
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
コメント欄に詳しい解説が書き込まれています。 英語でいうところの「buy back」と「insider buy」は異なる概念です。日本語の記事でどちらも自社株買いとされていることがあり、これを混同すると意味不明の記事になってしまいます。 The Great Stock Buyback Debate Written by Lance Roberts | May, 2, 2019 I recently wrote about stock buybacks in our weekly newsletter. However, a recent report from Axios noted that for 2019, IT companies are again on pace to spend the most on stock buybacks this year, as the total looks set to pass 2018’s $1.085 trillion record total. 最近私は週間記事で自社株買いに関して議論した。しかしながら、Axiosの最近の2019報告書によると、IT企業は再び今年その規模を増やしている、２０１８年は＄１．０８５Tと記録的規模だったが、今年はこれを超えそうだ。 “By the numbers: Companies so far have spent $272 billion on buybacks, data compiled by Mike Schoonover, COO of Catalyst Funds, for Axios shows. 「数値を見る限り：企業は＄２７２Bをすでに自社株買いに費やした、数値の解釈はMike Schoonoverによるものだ、彼はCatalyst FundsのCOOだ、Axiosがデータを示す。 Between the lines: The amount of spending on buybacks announced by companies in the IT sector has fallen significantly this year as other i...
このブログ左の参考図書の一つがHoward Marksの本です。初めてこの本を読んだ時、管理人は目からウロコが取れた思いでした。 Howard Marks: "We Had One Of The Most Violent Downdrafts I Had Ever Seen" by Tyler Durden Mon, 01/14/2019 - 09:28 Right around the market peaked on September 2018, Oaktree's iconic founder Howard Marks published a letter to investors in which he warned that the market conditions made it "a time for caution", to wit: 市場がピークを迎えた２０１８年９月ころ、Oaktreeの伝説的創業者 Howard Marksが投資家向けレターを発行した、この中で市場環境は「注意すべき時だ」と警告した、見てみよう： I’m absolutely not saying people shouldn’t invest today, or shouldn’t invest in debt. Oaktree’s mantra recently has been, and continues to be, “move forward, but with caution.” The outlook is not so bad, and asset prices are not so high, that one should be in cash or near-cash. The penalty in terms of likely opportunity cost is just too great to ...
コメント欄に詳しい解説が書き込まれています。ぜひ、一読を。 When The S&P Hit A Record High, The Only Buyer Was Buybacks; Everyone Else Was Selling by Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2019 - 14:26 Bloomberg's Michael Regan has taken a lot of heat for his Friday article " The U.S. Stock Market Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop Its Endless Rally " , which prompted some to ask if Bloomberg, with its "millennialized", click-optimized newsroom, has become the new Barron's. ブルームバーグのMichael Regan が金曜の記事で熱く語った「米国株式市場は止まることはない、止まること無きエンドレスラリーだ」、この記事を見てブルームバーグが変貌したのではないかと思う人もいた、「千年王国的か」、アクセス獲得の見せかけHPに変わったか、新手のバロン誌に変貌したか、という具合だ。 And yet, Regan's less than prescient headline notwithstanding, he made an accurate point in his teaser, namely that " regular investors are leaving. " That, as we have pounded the table week after week after week, has been ...
