On the verge of the 2001 recession, in February 2001, the real-time
data showed GDP growth declining to 1.1% (green line). But with the Fed
cutting rates, the S&P 500 saw a one-and-a-half-month 19% spurt in
April-May, even as the recession tightened its grip.
And in November 2007, on the cusp of the Great Recession, real-time
data showed GDP growth surging to 4.9% (red line). Only in the years
following the recession did revisions cut it down to less than half that
initial reading.
The point is that, at least in real time, the strength of GDP growth
does not tell us whether a recession is about to hit. It is only long
after the fact, following repeated revisions, that the GDP data becomes
more informative about the timing of the recession.
While the current cycle’s recent 2.6% GDP growth print – tracking
right in-between the 2001 and 2007 trajectories – was well received by
many economic prognosticators (blue line), by no means does it rule out a
looming recession.
In principle, GDP is a coincident indicator of the economy, with no real predictive value. But because more than half of
the initial GDP estimate is based on survey data and the extrapolation
of recent trends, the initial vintages of GDP are often misleading,
especially around business cycle turning points.
This helps explain why it is often only well after a recession has
begun that revisions to GDP data show an economic contraction in
progress. Until then, the consensus may be wrongly persuaded that the
coast is clear.
This is a key reason why good leading indexes are so valuable. Unlike
GDP, ECRI’s leading indexes avoid major revisions over time, most
crucially with regard to their cyclical timing and directional calls.
Consequently, we were able to call the 2001 recession and Great
Recession on a timely basis.
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Junk Bond Bubble In Pictures: Deflation Up Next by Tyler Durden Fri, 07/19/2019 - 14:37 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, The widely discussed "everything bubble" is, in reality, a corporate junk bond bubble on steroids sponsored by the Fed ... 幅広く議論されている「everything bubble」は実際に企業ジャンク・ボンドバブルにも言えることであり、これはFEDによりドーピング注入されている・・・ The highest grade AAA corporate bonds yield 2.75%. BBB-rated corporate bonds, just one step above junk, 3.5%. BB-rated bonds yield just 4.28%. 最高級ランクAAA企業債権の金利は２．７５％だ。あとひとランク悪化でジャンク・ボンド入りするBBB債権金利は３．５％。BB格付け債権の金利でもわずか４．２８％でしかない。 Corporate Bond Spreads 企業債権金利のスプレッド The spread between Prime AAA bonds and lower-medium grade bonds (see chart below) is just 0.77 percentage points. 最上位AAA債権と低中ランク債権のスプレッドがわずか０．７７％しかない。 The spre...
Class 8 Heavy Truck Orders Crash 68% in January by Tyler Durden Wed, 02/06/2019 - 17:25 Among the latest dismal news about the strength of the US economy, on Tuesday ACT Research released preliminary truck orders for January 2019 which showed that Class 8 truck orders collapsed an astounding 68% for January. The decline is being attributed to a 300,000+ vehicle backlog potentially prompting fleets to halt purchases in the near term. 米国経済に関し最近憂鬱なニュースが多い中で、火曜にACT researchが２０１９年１月のトラック発注を開示した、１月にClass 8のトラック発注がなんと６８％も急落した。この発注減は短期的に３００，０００台超の潜在在庫を生み出す。 Specifically, in January Class 8 net orders were 15,800 units (14,700 SA; 176,400 SAAR), down 68% YoY and down 26% MoM. Class 5- 7 January net orders were 23,400...
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれておきました。 Fed’s Risky QE4 Stock Ramp Adam Hamilton January 31, 2020 3567 Words The US stock markets dramatically surged mostly in a straight line since mid-October. This extraordinary rally started when the Federal Reserve announced it would resume expanding its balance sheet for the first time in years. The deluge of new liquidity from that quantitative-easing bond buying has again acted like rocket fuel for stock markets. After shooting vertically they are in real trouble when the Fed pulls back. In early October the flagship US S&P 500 stock index (SPX) slumped to 2888. That was a mild 4.6% pullback from late July’s latest record high. The SPX was still having a great year though, up 15.2% year-to-date at that point thanks to extreme Fed easing . After the SPX had plunged 19.8% mostly in Q4’18 in a severe near-bear cor...
一定のエネルギーが外部から流入する系ではその流入量が普遍一定でも、散逸構造、自己組織化をすることが知られています。散逸構造では空間時間的な周期構造が生じます。たとえば隔離された無人島にうさぎときつねを放した場合、時間とともに均衡値に近づきますが、完全な定常状態にはならずその前後で周期的な変動が起きます、うさぎを捕食しすぎてが減るとキツネの食料が減りキツネの個体数上昇には限界が生じ、その後うさぎの個体数が増えます。うさぎの数もその島の植物総量に限界があります。 株式市場にも３０年前後のバリュエーション変動があります。管理人はこの原因はたぶん投資家の世代交代に起因するものだと感じています。多くの人の投資寿命は３０年前後です。私を含めて現在投資をしている人は英國や日本で政府債務解消のための金融抑圧など記憶にもないでしょう、学校の歴史でも教えてくれません。あの米国でも金本位制のなかで国民からゴールドを強制買い上げし、ゴールド価格を改定したり個人がゴールド保有を長年禁止していたことを多くの人は知らないでしょう。少なくとも私は学校の歴史で習った覚えがありません。 また大統領任期に関連した８年前後の変動があります、政党は政権を維持するために選挙に向けて財政刺激策を行いますが選挙後にはこれが息切れします。大統領選挙前数ヶ月の株価動向と選挙結果、民主共和転換、の相関は９０％を超えています。トランプのときもそうでした、YellenはFRB議長としては珍しい熱心な民主党員で、FEDバランスシート正常化の先送り、二回目の金利引き上げの先送りをしたのですが、２０１６年秋には株価が徐々に下落してしまいました。 次に短いのが１年の変動で気候に関する人の気分や新学期・新年度に関するものです。もっと短いのが週間の変動で、月曜や金曜は特異的な動きをします。こういう繰り返しは左の参考図書「市場のサイクルは永遠に」に解説されています。 Are We In A Secular Bull Market? Written by Lance Roberts | Jan, 7, 2019 Just recently, Jeff Saut from Raymond James made a very interesting statement with re...
