On the verge of the 2001 recession, in February 2001, the real-time
data showed GDP growth declining to 1.1% (green line). But with the Fed
cutting rates, the S&P 500 saw a one-and-a-half-month 19% spurt in
April-May, even as the recession tightened its grip.
And in November 2007, on the cusp of the Great Recession, real-time
data showed GDP growth surging to 4.9% (red line). Only in the years
following the recession did revisions cut it down to less than half that
initial reading.
The point is that, at least in real time, the strength of GDP growth
does not tell us whether a recession is about to hit. It is only long
after the fact, following repeated revisions, that the GDP data becomes
more informative about the timing of the recession.
While the current cycle’s recent 2.6% GDP growth print – tracking
right in-between the 2001 and 2007 trajectories – was well received by
many economic prognosticators (blue line), by no means does it rule out a
looming recession.
In principle, GDP is a coincident indicator of the economy, with no real predictive value. But because more than half of
the initial GDP estimate is based on survey data and the extrapolation
of recent trends, the initial vintages of GDP are often misleading,
especially around business cycle turning points.
This helps explain why it is often only well after a recession has
begun that revisions to GDP data show an economic contraction in
progress. Until then, the consensus may be wrongly persuaded that the
coast is clear.
This is a key reason why good leading indexes are so valuable. Unlike
GDP, ECRI’s leading indexes avoid major revisions over time, most
crucially with regard to their cyclical timing and directional calls.
Consequently, we were able to call the 2001 recession and Great
Recession on a timely basis.
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれました。 Big Silver-Stock Potential Adam Hamilton February 7, 2020 2689 Words The silver miners’ stocks are looking interesting. While they really lagged silver’s surge on gold’s bull-market-breakout rally last summer, their upleg since remains intact. Gold stocks’ own upleg peaked in early September. And silver itself remains wildly undervalued relative to gold, overdue to mean revert dramatically higher. When that happens during gold’s next upleg, the silver stocks have big potential to soar. Like the global silver market is vastly smaller than gold’s, silver stocks are a proportionally-little fraction of the precious-metals miners. As a small subset of a usually-ignored contrarian sector, the silver stocks often languish in obscurity. For decades there wasn’t even a silver-stock index, making sector analysis difficult. ...
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれておきます。 Gold Stocks Remain Cheap Adam Hamilton December 20, 2019 2800 Words The gold miners’ stocks have suffered a lackluster few months. That’s a disheartening contrast to their powerful summer upleg on gold’s bull-market breakout. While this healthy gold-stock correction likely isn’t over yet, the gold miners remain very undervalued relative to the metal they produce. That means they still have massive upside left in this secular gold bull. Sentiment just needs rebalancing before its next upleg. In recent months I’ve written a lot about gold’s correction, which is naturally driving a parallel one in the gold miners’ stocks. I’ve explained why speculators’ positioning in gold futures, gold’s dominant primary short-term driver, remains bearish with potential selling vastly outweighing likely buying. I’ve shown how shallow ...
Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q4’19 Fundamentals Adam Hamilton March 20, 2020 3250 Words The mid-tier gold miners’ stocks have been annihilated with COVID-19 fears infecting traders’ sentiment. They crashed with gold getting hammered on extreme gold-futures selling! With blood in the streets, the buy-low opportunities are phenomenal. The fundamentally-superior mid-tier gold miners have epic upside potential during gold’s next upleg. This key sector just reported outstanding Q4’19 results on higher gold. The sheer carnage in gold-stock-land has been jaw-dropping! In late February, the gold-stock sector per its leading benchmark GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF edged up to a 3.5-year high slightly above early September’s. That was fueled by gold’s $1600 breakout surge on COVID-19 fears. Yet as I warned in an essay the trading day before GDX’s pe...
最後の２段落だけ訳を入れておきます。 Gold-Stock Bull Breakout! Adam Hamilton April 24, 2020 2845 Words The gold miners’ stocks surged to a major bull-market breakout this week! Powering decisively above their years-old secular resistance is a hugely-important technical event. It proves this gold-stock bull is alive and well, greatly improves sentiment, and puts this high-flying sector on countless more traders’ radars. New bull highs fuel self-feeding bullish psychology, as speculators and investors love chasing winners. The gold miners’ stocks are essentially leveraged plays on gold, since its price overwhelmingly drives their earnings and thus ultimately stock prices. So gold-stock bulls and bears mirror and amplify gold’s own major market cycles. Today’s secular gold bull began marching in mid-December 2015, birthed from choking despair. Gold stocks’ ...
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれておきます。 この記事は先週水曜締め切りで金曜に発行されたものです。 Gold Stocks’ Spring Rally 5 Adam Hamilton February 28, 2020 3225 Words Before their recent surge on gold regaining $1600, the gold stocks spent much of the past half-year or so largely drifting sideways to lower. That high consolidation really weighed on sentiment, with greed giving way to apathy. This sector normally tends to suffer a seasonal slump into mid-March, paving the way for gold stocks’ spring rally. That’s their second-strongest seasonal surge of the year running into early June. Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally c...
