As Goldman's Andrew Tilton (Chief Asia Economist) suggested:
ゴールドマンサックスのAndrew Tilton(アジアエコノミスト主任)はこう示唆する:
"There are reasons to be concerned [that easing is becoming less effective].
Local government officials who typically implement infrastructure
spending and other forms of stimulus are facing conflicting pressures.
The emphasis in recent years on reducing off-balance-sheet borrowing,
selecting only higher-value projects, and eliminating corruption has
made local officials more cautious. But at the same time, the
authorities are now encouraging local officials to do more to support
growth, like accelerate infrastructure projects. President Xi himself
recently acknowledged the incentive problems and administrative burdens
facing local officials."
And Nomura's Ting Lu has an explanation for why China stimulus i snot working... Chinese easing- / stimulus- escalation being a likely
requirement for any sort of “reflation” theme to work beyond a tactical
trade:
そしてノムラのTing Luはこう解説する、どうして中国の刺激策が機能しないかについて・・。中国の緩和/刺激策拡大にはある種の「リフレーション」が必要で戦略的な功罪が伴う:
yes, more RRR cuts are coming eventually (a better way for Chinese
banks to obtain liquidity vs borrowing from MLF or TMLF, bc it’s cheaper
and more stable)... ...but that the timing of such a cut is primarily dependent on the Chinese stock market, asthe
“re-bubbling” happening real-time in Chinese Equities (CSI 300 +26.8%
YTD; SHCOMP +24.4%; SZCOMP +34.0%) likely then constrains the room and
pace of Beijing’s policy easing / stimulus
This “Chinese Equities rally effectively holding further RRR cuts
hostage” then could become a serious “fly in the ointment” for near-term
/ tactical “reflation” (or bear-steepening) themes, as Q2 is on-pace to
see a significant liquidity shortage.
Ting estimates the liquidity gap could reach ~ RMB 1.7T in Q2 due to the following factors:
The size of the upcoming MLF maturities (est to be ~RMB 1.2T in Q2); 今後のMLF中期債権満期規模(Q2にRMB1.2Tと見積もられている);
The size and pace of (both central and local) government bond issuance (Nomura ests a target of ~ RMB 1T for Q2); 中央地方政府債券発行の規模とペース(ノムラはQ2にRMB1Tと見積もる);
Tax season effects; and 納税時期効果;そして
The shortage of money supply through the PBoC’s FX purchases 中国人民銀行の為替取引でのマネーサプライ不足
CHINA’S COMING Q2 LIQUIDITY-SHORTAGE:
So, simply put, China is merely refilling a rapidly leaking bucket of liquidity, as opposed to sloshing more into the bath of global risk - even if Chinese stocks were embracing it.
C&I Loans Enter The Danger Zone by Tyler Durden Thu, 03/14/2019 - 15:55 Authored by Jesse Colombo via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Commercial and industrial (C&I) loan activity is watched closely by economists to gauge the strength of the economy and estimate where we are in the business cycle. C&I loans are used to finance capital expenditures or increase the borrower’s working capital. The C&I loan cycle often takes up to a couple of years to turn positive after a recession, but provides even more confirmation that an economic expansion is underway. For example, the U.S. Great Recession officially ended in June 2009, but the C&I loan cycle didn’t turn positive until late-2010. C&I loans also help to wa...
Mish: Gold Hits New Record High And There's More To Come by Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2020 - 10:10 Twitter Facebook Reddit Email Print Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, Gold futures just touched $1928 taking out the Intraday high of $1923.70 in 2011. ゴールド先物が$1928になり、2011年の日中高値$1923.70を超えた。 11-Week Run 11週連続上昇 Gold is on a huge 11-week run. The last time gold did that was at the 2011 high. ゴールドはなんと11週連続で上昇だ。前回の新高値は2011年のことだった。 Is a pullback in order? A Gold COT chart says otherwise. 通常の引き戻しが待ち構えているだろうか? ゴールドのCoTチャートを見るとそうでもなさそうだ。 Gold COT Chart ゴールドCoTチャート Understanding Futures 先物市場を読み解く In the futures world there is a short for every long. 先物市場ではどのロングにもショートが対応している。 The first horizontal box has Large Specs, Small Specs, and Commercials. This is It's Old COT reporting. この図の下部、最初の横長い箱に示すのは Large Specs、Small Specs、そしてCommercialsのポジションだ。このチャートは従来からのCoT...