As Goldman's Andrew Tilton (Chief Asia Economist) suggested:
ゴールドマンサックスのAndrew Tilton（アジアエコノミスト主任）はこう示唆する：
"There are reasons to be concerned [that easing is becoming less effective].
Local government officials who typically implement infrastructure
spending and other forms of stimulus are facing conflicting pressures.
The emphasis in recent years on reducing off-balance-sheet borrowing,
selecting only higher-value projects, and eliminating corruption has
made local officials more cautious. But at the same time, the
authorities are now encouraging local officials to do more to support
growth, like accelerate infrastructure projects. President Xi himself
recently acknowledged the incentive problems and administrative burdens
facing local officials."
And Nomura's Ting Lu has an explanation for why China stimulus i snot working... Chinese easing- / stimulus- escalation being a likely
requirement for any sort of “reflation” theme to work beyond a tactical
trade:
そしてノムラのTing Luはこう解説する、どうして中国の刺激策が機能しないかについて・・。中国の緩和／刺激策拡大にはある種の「リフレーション」が必要で戦略的な功罪が伴う：
yes, more RRR cuts are coming eventually (a better way for Chinese
banks to obtain liquidity vs borrowing from MLF or TMLF, bc it’s cheaper
and more stable)... ...but that the timing of such a cut is primarily dependent on the Chinese stock market, asthe
“re-bubbling” happening real-time in Chinese Equities (CSI 300 +26.8%
YTD; SHCOMP +24.4%; SZCOMP +34.0%) likely then constrains the room and
pace of Beijing’s policy easing / stimulus
This “Chinese Equities rally effectively holding further RRR cuts
hostage” then could become a serious “fly in the ointment” for near-term
/ tactical “reflation” (or bear-steepening) themes, as Q2 is on-pace to
see a significant liquidity shortage.
Ting estimates the liquidity gap could reach ~ RMB 1.7T in Q2 due to the following factors:
The size of the upcoming MLF maturities (est to be ~RMB 1.2T in Q2); 今後のMLF中期債権満期規模（Q2にRMB1.2Tと見積もられている）；
The size and pace of (both central and local) government bond issuance (Nomura ests a target of ~ RMB 1T for Q2); 中央地方政府債券発行の規模とペース（ノムラはQ2にRMB１Tと見積もる）；
Tax season effects; and 納税時期効果；そして
The shortage of money supply through the PBoC’s FX purchases 中国人民銀行の為替取引でのマネーサプライ不足
CHINA’S COMING Q2 LIQUIDITY-SHORTAGE:
So, simply put, China is merely refilling a rapidly leaking bucket of liquidity, as opposed to sloshing more into the bath of global risk - even if Chinese stocks were embracing it.
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう この長文記事をRay Dalioが発表し、ゴールドは＄１４００から＄１４２０へと急騰しました。GLD保持高に変化はないのでたぶん先物ポジションが進んでいます。 Ray Dalio Warns A "New Paradigm" Is Coming: "Buy Gold, Sell Stocks" by Tyler Durden Wed, 07/17/2019 - 14:44 Authored by Ray Dalio via LinkedIn, One of my investment principles is: 私の投資原則はこういうものだ： Identify the paradigm you’re in, examine if and how it is unsustainable, and visualize how the paradigm shift will transpire when that which is unsustainable stops. 現在のパラダイムを認識し、それがどの程度持続可能かどうか判断する、そしてパラダイムシフトがどのように起きるか、そしてその着地点を思い描く。 Over my roughly 50 years of being a global macro investor, I have observed there to be relatively long of periods (about 10 years) in which the markets and market relationships operate in a certain way (which I call “paradig...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
The US Consumer Just Hit A Brick Wall: Here's Why In 15 Charts by Tyler Durden Tue, 03/05/2019 - 17:05 When it comes to the growth dynamo behind the global economy, nobody can match the US consumer - not even China: accounting for trillions in annual spending, the US consumer, who represents roughly 70% of US GDP, is also responsible for roughly 17% of global GDP, slightly ahead of the entire country of China. 世界経済の成長エンジンを議論する時、米国消費以上のものはないーー中国ではない：年間トリリオンドルを米国消費者は使っている、これが米国GDPの７０％、そして世界GDPの１７％を占める、中国全GDPよりも大きい。 However, as recent economic data has shown, the future of the US consumer is suddenly looking ominously cloudy, for two big reasons: rising interest rates, which as Deutsche Bank notes are "beginning to bite" as observed in the number of working hours in sector selling big ticket items... しかしながら最近の経済デ...
