As the current economic cycle becomes increasingly long-in-the-tooth and macroeconomic and earnings data deteriorate, it is time to start thinking about the next recession. In particular, I wanted to point out that the U.S. federal debt burden has never been so high before a recession, as the chart below shows (hat tip to my Twitter follower @grimacemcdonald
for the idea). In past recessions (see gray bars on chart), the U.S.
federal government ramped up spending in order to help support the
economy. With federal debt at over 100% of the GDP (vs. 62% before the
Great Recession), however, it will be a much greater challenge to keep
the economy afloat in the coming recession.
Though interest rates have been at ultra-low levels for the past
decade, the sheer amount of U.S. federal debt (over $22 trillion) is the
reason why interest payments have spiked over the past couple years. To
make matters worse, this debt will eventually need to be refinanced at
higher interest rates, which means that interest payments will rise even
more. Another recession combined with another ramp-up of federal debt
will cause these payments to rise even more. This is how sovereign debt
crises happen.
Think another U.S. recession is unlikely any time soon? As Lance Roberts has been saying,
the odds are much higher than most people think. For example, the
extremely accurate New York Federal Reserve recession indicator is now
at its highest level since 2008:
米国景気後退はまだ遠いと思うだろうか？ Lance Rovertsがずっと言っているが、多くの人が思っているよりもその可能性は大きい。たとえば、これまでとても正確に予想実績のあるNew York FEDの景気後退指数は今や２００８年以来で最高になっている：
Though the stock market has been rallying in the face of deteriorating data, now is not the time for complacency. In my view,
the fact that the stock market has been rallying for the past two
months is a sign of an extremely unhealthy market in which the
Fed/central banks are panicking and doing whatever they can to prop it
up as recession odds increase.
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Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
多量のオピオイドを米国に送り込み、米国で深刻な麻薬中毒問題を引き起こしています。現代版「阿片戦争」です。あのトヨタ初の女性取締役もオピオイド中毒で逮捕解任されましたよね。 US Is Dependent On China For Almost 80% Of Its Medicine by Tyler Durden Fri, 05/31/2019 - 12:55 Experts are warning that the U.S. has become way too reliant on China for all our medicine , our pain killers, antibiotics, vitamins, aspirin and many cancer treatment medicine. 専門家はこう警告する、米国はすべての医薬品、痛み止め、抗生物質、ビタミン、アスピリン、各種抗がん剤で、中国依存度が高すぎる。 Fox Business reports that according to FDA estimates at least 80 percent of active ingredients found in all of America’s medicine come from abroad, primarily from China . And it’s not just the ingredients, China wants to become the world’s dominant generic drug maker. So far Chinese companies are making generic for everything from high blood pressure to chemotherapy drugs. 90 percent of America’s prescriptions a...
結局、中国は隣国日本で２０年前に起きたことを学んでいなかったということでしょう、というかどの国もどの政府も十分成熟するまでは「わかっちゃいるけどやめられない」ということでしょうね、きっと。 Spooked By Apple? Wait ‘Til China’s Bubble Bursts Written by Jesse Colombo | Jan, 3, 2019 Apple stock plunged nearly 10% on Thursday after the company cut its revenue forecast due to slowing iPhone sales in China. Apple’s woes dragged U.S. stock indices lower by more than 2% as fears of a more extensive China-driven slowdown spread. アップルの株価は火曜に約１０％下落した、同社が中国でのiPhone売上原則を予想したためだ。アップルの弱さが米国株式指数を２％以上押し下げた、中国主導でさらなる原則が広がるのではという懸念からだ。 From the New York Times : ニューヨークタイムスによると： For years, no matter what was happening elsewhere, global companies bet billions upon billions of dollars that China’s consumers would keep spending money. 長年、他国で何が起きようとも多国籍企業は中国消費は巨額を維持することに賭けてきた。 Now, just when the world economy could use their financial firepower, they are no longer so quick to open their wallets. 今や、世界経済が金融弾薬を用いてももはや彼らの財布を緩めることはできない。 The latest sign of a slowdown in...
S&P Surges To Key Technical Level - Now What? by Tyler Durden Tue, 02/12/2019 - 12:03 Having failed twice last week, the S&P 500 is once again testing its 200DMA as hopes of a border/shutdown deal, a lack of collusion, China trade dreams, and an easy Fed are prompting stocks to new post-Xmas dip highs... 先週二回失敗し、S&P500がまたもや２００日移動平均に挑戦している、国境の壁／政府閉鎖問題解決、ロシア疑惑解消、中国貿易改善そしてFEDのハト派姿勢、これらがクリスマス下落後の高値を推進している・・・ The S&P 500 is at its highest since Dec 4th... S&P500は１２月４日以来の高値だ・・・ What happens next? では次はどうなる？ Earnings recession? Meh, don't worry about it... 収益による景気後退？ 別に心配することではない・・・・ Oh and don't worry - Fed Chair Powell just told everyone that he "doe...
Gold Stocks Surge Higher Adam Hamilton February 22, 2019 2932 Words The gold miners’ stocks surged strongly this week, blasting to new upleg highs. The mounting gains are naturally driving more interest in this small contrarian sector, shifting sentiment towards bullish. Despite their accelerating rally, gold stocks still remain fairly low technically and deeply undervalued relative to gold. So their strengthening upleg likely has plenty of room to run considerably higher in coming months. 今週金鉱株は力強く上昇し新高値となった。上昇が積み上がりこの小さなコントラリアンセクターはさらに注目を集めている、これが心理を強気なものにする。ラリーが加速するが、金鉱株はテクニカル的にはまだ安値で、対ゴールドでとても過小評価されている。というわけで力強い上昇は今後数ヶ月まだかなりな上昇余地がある。 The gold miners’ stocks are ultimately leveraged plays on gold, which overwhelmingly drives their profits. The much-maligned yellow metal has enjoyed a strong upleg since mid-August, when record gold-futures s...
