As the current economic cycle becomes increasingly long-in-the-tooth and macroeconomic and earnings data deteriorate, it is time to start thinking about the next recession. In particular, I wanted to point out that the U.S. federal debt burden has never been so high before a recession, as the chart below shows (hat tip to my Twitter follower @grimacemcdonald
for the idea). In past recessions (see gray bars on chart), the U.S.
federal government ramped up spending in order to help support the
economy. With federal debt at over 100% of the GDP (vs. 62% before the
Great Recession), however, it will be a much greater challenge to keep
the economy afloat in the coming recession.
Though interest rates have been at ultra-low levels for the past
decade, the sheer amount of U.S. federal debt (over $22 trillion) is the
reason why interest payments have spiked over the past couple years. To
make matters worse, this debt will eventually need to be refinanced at
higher interest rates, which means that interest payments will rise even
more. Another recession combined with another ramp-up of federal debt
will cause these payments to rise even more. This is how sovereign debt
crises happen.
Think another U.S. recession is unlikely any time soon? As Lance Roberts has been saying,
the odds are much higher than most people think. For example, the
extremely accurate New York Federal Reserve recession indicator is now
at its highest level since 2008:
米国景気後退はまだ遠いと思うだろうか? Lance Rovertsがずっと言っているが、多くの人が思っているよりもその可能性は大きい。たとえば、これまでとても正確に予想実績のあるNew York FEDの景気後退指数は今や2008年以来で最高になっている:
Though the stock market has been rallying in the face of deteriorating data, now is not the time for complacency. In my view,
the fact that the stock market has been rallying for the past two
months is a sign of an extremely unhealthy market in which the
Fed/central banks are panicking and doing whatever they can to prop it
up as recession odds increase.
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米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを7時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、2018年の最後の3ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
文章全体がZeroHedge特有の皮肉で満ちています。 Global Earnings Downgrades At Highest Level In 10 Years by Tyler Durden Thu, 01/10/2019 - 16:45 As stock markets plunged in December, asset-gatherers and commission-takers (and politicians) rushed on to every media outlet to reassure everyone that the fundamentals are "solid", "extremely strong", "very positive" ... pick your spin. The only problem is that top-down, the fundamentals are dismally disappointing... 12月の株式急落で、株式を買い集めている人、手数料狙いの人(そして政治家)はメディアに出ずっぱりで誰もにこう訴えた、ファンダメンタルズは「健全」、「とても強い」、「とてもポジティブ」・・・みなさんもこれに振り回された。唯一の問題はこれらは上意下達であることだ、実際のファンダメンタルズは悲しいかな失望するものだ・・・・ And bottom-up, the fundamentals are almost as bad as they have ever been as analysts take the ax to their outlooks... the number of analysts’ global earnings downgrades exceeded upgrades by the most since 2...