As the current economic cycle becomes increasingly long-in-the-tooth and macroeconomic and earnings data deteriorate, it is time to start thinking about the next recession. In particular, I wanted to point out that the U.S. federal debt burden has never been so high before a recession, as the chart below shows (hat tip to my Twitter follower @grimacemcdonald
for the idea). In past recessions (see gray bars on chart), the U.S.
federal government ramped up spending in order to help support the
economy. With federal debt at over 100% of the GDP (vs. 62% before the
Great Recession), however, it will be a much greater challenge to keep
the economy afloat in the coming recession.
Though interest rates have been at ultra-low levels for the past
decade, the sheer amount of U.S. federal debt (over $22 trillion) is the
reason why interest payments have spiked over the past couple years. To
make matters worse, this debt will eventually need to be refinanced at
higher interest rates, which means that interest payments will rise even
more. Another recession combined with another ramp-up of federal debt
will cause these payments to rise even more. This is how sovereign debt
crises happen.
Think another U.S. recession is unlikely any time soon? As Lance Roberts has been saying,
the odds are much higher than most people think. For example, the
extremely accurate New York Federal Reserve recession indicator is now
at its highest level since 2008:
米国景気後退はまだ遠いと思うだろうか？ Lance Rovertsがずっと言っているが、多くの人が思っているよりもその可能性は大きい。たとえば、これまでとても正確に予想実績のあるNew York FEDの景気後退指数は今や２００８年以来で最高になっている：
Though the stock market has been rallying in the face of deteriorating data, now is not the time for complacency. In my view,
the fact that the stock market has been rallying for the past two
months is a sign of an extremely unhealthy market in which the
Fed/central banks are panicking and doing whatever they can to prop it
up as recession odds increase.
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この記事よりももっと詳しい分析がこちらにあります。： https://www.adamtownsend.me/china-financial-stability-report/ 元データは毎年開示されるPBOCの英文報告に基づいたものです： http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/130736/index.html ただ、毎年２００ページ超もあり、そう簡単に読みこなせるものではありません。この記事の表のようなわかりやすい形で整理して開示はしていません。この記事の表にはどの年の何ページに書かれたデータであるかが示されています。日本語ネットの記事ではシャードーバンクの規模がよくわからないというものが多いですが、毎年PBOC自らがシャドーバンク規模を自ら認めています。その規模は驚くものです。 この記事に書かれている数値は驚くばかりです。ここまで信用創造をしているのかと驚きます。そりゃ昨年来RRRの低減とかの緩和策を連発してますが、効果が無いのももっともです。これまでの緩和の規模からすると昨年のこの手の緩和はその規模が全く足りないですね。一年以上前にZeroHedgeで中国企業の殆どがミンスキーポイントを超えている、企業の営業利益で債務金利が賄えず利払いのために新たな借金をしている、というのが詳しくデータで示されていましたが、なるほどなと思います。 The Black Swan So Ugly No One Will Talk About It by Phoenix Capita… Fri, 01/11/2019 - 11:55 The biggest black swan facing the financial system is China. 金融システムが直面する最大のブラックスワンは中国だ。 China has been the primary driver of growth for the global economy since the 2008 Crisis...
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれました。 Big Silver-Stock Potential Adam Hamilton February 7, 2020 2689 Words The silver miners’ stocks are looking interesting. While they really lagged silver’s surge on gold’s bull-market-breakout rally last summer, their upleg since remains intact. Gold stocks’ own upleg peaked in early September. And silver itself remains wildly undervalued relative to gold, overdue to mean revert dramatically higher. When that happens during gold’s next upleg, the silver stocks have big potential to soar. Like the global silver market is vastly smaller than gold’s, silver stocks are a proportionally-little fraction of the precious-metals miners. As a small subset of a usually-ignored contrarian sector, the silver stocks often languish in obscurity. For decades there wasn’t even a silver-stock index, making sector analysis difficult. ...
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最後の２段落だけ訳をいれておきます。 この記事は先週水曜締め切りで金曜に発行されたものです。 Gold Stocks’ Spring Rally 5 Adam Hamilton February 28, 2020 3225 Words Before their recent surge on gold regaining $1600, the gold stocks spent much of the past half-year or so largely drifting sideways to lower. That high consolidation really weighed on sentiment, with greed giving way to apathy. This sector normally tends to suffer a seasonal slump into mid-March, paving the way for gold stocks’ spring rally. That’s their second-strongest seasonal surge of the year running into early June. Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally c...
Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q4’19 Fundamentals Adam Hamilton March 20, 2020 3250 Words The mid-tier gold miners’ stocks have been annihilated with COVID-19 fears infecting traders’ sentiment. They crashed with gold getting hammered on extreme gold-futures selling! With blood in the streets, the buy-low opportunities are phenomenal. The fundamentally-superior mid-tier gold miners have epic upside potential during gold’s next upleg. This key sector just reported outstanding Q4’19 results on higher gold. The sheer carnage in gold-stock-land has been jaw-dropping! In late February, the gold-stock sector per its leading benchmark GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF edged up to a 3.5-year high slightly above early September’s. That was fueled by gold’s $1600 breakout surge on COVID-19 fears. Yet as I warned in an essay the trading day before GDX’s pe...
