When
it comes to the growth dynamo behind the global economy, nobody can
match the US consumer - not even China: accounting for trillions in
annual spending, the US consumer, who represents roughly 70% of US GDP,
is also responsible for roughly 17% of global GDP, slightly ahead of the entire country of China.
世界経済の成長エンジンを議論する時、米国消費以上のものはないーー中国ではない：年間トリリオンドルを米国消費者は使っている、これが米国GDPの７０％、そして世界GDPの１７％を占める、中国全GDPよりも大きい。
However, as recent economic data has shown, the future of the US
consumer is suddenly looking ominously cloudy, for two big reasons:
rising interest rates, which as Deutsche Bank notes are "beginning to
bite" as observed in the number of working hours in sector selling big
ticket items...
... and increasingly tighter loan terms, which coupled with softer
loan demand, means that the purchasing power of the US consumer is
suddenly facing a very troubling air pocket.
One driver behind the sudden drop in loan demand may also be the most
obvious one: interest rates on credit cards have soared to the highest
in over two decades...
... while auto loan interest rates are now the highest since 2011,
and rapidly rising, making the average auto loan payment the highest on
record as discussed recently.
It's not just credit cards and auto loans: the aggregate household
interest payment has soared at a 15% Y/Y rate. Virtually every prior
time when interest payments spiked this much, a recession promptly
followed.
And while not quite at "redline levels" just yet, interest payments
as a share of total household spending has jumped to the highest level
since the financial crisis.
そしてまだ「赤線レベル」にはなっていないが、家計に占める利払い率は金融危機以来で最高レベルだ。
Meanwhile, as US purchasing power shrinks, so do intentions to purchase both cars...
それと同時に、米国の購買力は縮小している、自動車と・・・・
... and houses.
・・・・そして住宅だ。
And while many legacy economists and pundits have said to ignore the
dismal December retail sales print, considering the collapse in spending
intentions for most other goods and services, it is only a matter of
time before consumer spending slides into recession (and the latest
retail sales print is confirmed as the accurate one).
With rates rising, and with ever greater monthly payments, both credit card...
金利上昇に伴い、クレジットカードの毎月の支払いが大きくなり・・・・
... and auto delinquencies are surging.
・・・自動車ローン返済遅延が上昇している。
And so, with the credit cycle having peaked and absent rate cuts (and
QE) by the Fed, only set to make life for US consumers even more
difficult, it is just a matter of time before the economic slowdown
follows.
As usually happens, one generation is especially exposed to the
upcoming period of economic weakness: the millennials, whose delinquency
rate is already the highest among all age cohorts.
Finally, while all of the above have yet to hit the US economy where
GDP recently printed at a solid 2.6% in Q4, in Q1 GDP is expected to
plunge below 1% (Atlanta Fed has it at a paltry 0.3%); once that
happens, US small business confidence which is already plunging at the
fastest rate since the financial crisis after having soared higher after
the Trump election, will crater sending the US economy into a steep
recession if not worse.
この記事よりももっと詳しい分析がこちらにあります。： https://www.adamtownsend.me/china-financial-stability-report/ 元データは毎年開示されるPBOCの英文報告に基づいたものです： http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/130736/index.html ただ、毎年２００ページ超もあり、そう簡単に読みこなせるものではありません。この記事の表のようなわかりやすい形で整理して開示はしていません。この記事の表にはどの年の何ページに書かれたデータであるかが示されています。日本語ネットの記事ではシャードーバンクの規模がよくわからないというものが多いですが、毎年PBOC自らがシャドーバンク規模を自ら認めています。その規模は驚くものです。 この記事に書かれている数値は驚くばかりです。ここまで信用創造をしているのかと驚きます。そりゃ昨年来RRRの低減とかの緩和策を連発してますが、効果が無いのももっともです。これまでの緩和の規模からすると昨年のこの手の緩和はその規模が全く足りないですね。一年以上前にZeroHedgeで中国企業の殆どがミンスキーポイントを超えている、企業の営業利益で債務金利が賄えず利払いのために新たな借金をしている、というのが詳しくデータで示されていましたが、なるほどなと思います。 The Black Swan So Ugly No One Will Talk About It by Phoenix Capita… Fri, 01/11/2019 - 11:55 The biggest black swan facing the financial system is China. 金融システムが直面する最大のブラックスワンは中国だ。 China has been the primary driver of growth for the global economy since the 2008 Crisis...
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれました。 Big Silver-Stock Potential Adam Hamilton February 7, 2020 2689 Words The silver miners’ stocks are looking interesting. While they really lagged silver’s surge on gold’s bull-market-breakout rally last summer, their upleg since remains intact. Gold stocks’ own upleg peaked in early September. And silver itself remains wildly undervalued relative to gold, overdue to mean revert dramatically higher. When that happens during gold’s next upleg, the silver stocks have big potential to soar. Like the global silver market is vastly smaller than gold’s, silver stocks are a proportionally-little fraction of the precious-metals miners. As a small subset of a usually-ignored contrarian sector, the silver stocks often languish in obscurity. For decades there wasn’t even a silver-stock index, making sector analysis difficult. ...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
