When
it comes to the growth dynamo behind the global economy, nobody can
match the US consumer - not even China: accounting for trillions in
annual spending, the US consumer, who represents roughly 70% of US GDP,
is also responsible for roughly 17% of global GDP, slightly ahead of the entire country of China.
世界経済の成長エンジンを議論する時、米国消費以上のものはないーー中国ではない：年間トリリオンドルを米国消費者は使っている、これが米国GDPの７０％、そして世界GDPの１７％を占める、中国全GDPよりも大きい。
However, as recent economic data has shown, the future of the US
consumer is suddenly looking ominously cloudy, for two big reasons:
rising interest rates, which as Deutsche Bank notes are "beginning to
bite" as observed in the number of working hours in sector selling big
ticket items...
... and increasingly tighter loan terms, which coupled with softer
loan demand, means that the purchasing power of the US consumer is
suddenly facing a very troubling air pocket.
One driver behind the sudden drop in loan demand may also be the most
obvious one: interest rates on credit cards have soared to the highest
in over two decades...
... while auto loan interest rates are now the highest since 2011,
and rapidly rising, making the average auto loan payment the highest on
record as discussed recently.
It's not just credit cards and auto loans: the aggregate household
interest payment has soared at a 15% Y/Y rate. Virtually every prior
time when interest payments spiked this much, a recession promptly
followed.
And while not quite at "redline levels" just yet, interest payments
as a share of total household spending has jumped to the highest level
since the financial crisis.
そしてまだ「赤線レベル」にはなっていないが、家計に占める利払い率は金融危機以来で最高レベルだ。
Meanwhile, as US purchasing power shrinks, so do intentions to purchase both cars...
それと同時に、米国の購買力は縮小している、自動車と・・・・
... and houses.
・・・・そして住宅だ。
And while many legacy economists and pundits have said to ignore the
dismal December retail sales print, considering the collapse in spending
intentions for most other goods and services, it is only a matter of
time before consumer spending slides into recession (and the latest
retail sales print is confirmed as the accurate one).
With rates rising, and with ever greater monthly payments, both credit card...
金利上昇に伴い、クレジットカードの毎月の支払いが大きくなり・・・・
... and auto delinquencies are surging.
・・・自動車ローン返済遅延が上昇している。
And so, with the credit cycle having peaked and absent rate cuts (and
QE) by the Fed, only set to make life for US consumers even more
difficult, it is just a matter of time before the economic slowdown
follows.
As usually happens, one generation is especially exposed to the
upcoming period of economic weakness: the millennials, whose delinquency
rate is already the highest among all age cohorts.
Finally, while all of the above have yet to hit the US economy where
GDP recently printed at a solid 2.6% in Q4, in Q1 GDP is expected to
plunge below 1% (Atlanta Fed has it at a paltry 0.3%); once that
happens, US small business confidence which is already plunging at the
fastest rate since the financial crisis after having soared higher after
the Trump election, will crater sending the US economy into a steep
recession if not worse.
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Supply and Demand in Comex Digital Gold by Sprott Money Thu, 07/04/2019 - 09:32 Supply and Demand in Comex Digital Gold Written by Craig Hemke, Sprott Money News A few years ago, we wrote the salient article on the subject of derivative supply and demand on Comex. Given the recent price breakout and sentiment change, it's likely a good idea to re-visit this topic today. 数年前のことだが、私どもはCOMXの派生商品の需給に関する注目記事を書いた。最近の価格ブレークアウトと心理変化もあり、この話題を再度今取り上げるのが良かろう。 The post from 2017 dealt with Comex silver and the original link is below. However, since it is extremely important that you understand this dynamic, I'm going to ask the folks at Sprott Money to reprint the post in its entirely at the bottom of this page. Please take the time to read and study this full article: ２０１７年の記事はCOMEXシルバーに関するもので、その時のリ...
「この記事が面白いと思うなら、 Amaz onで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう 」 September Class 8 Heavy Duty Truck Orders Collapse 71% by Tyler Durden Fri, 10/04/2019 - 13:10 Preliminary Class 8 order data for September is starting to trickle in and, like the data preceding it so far this year - it's ugly. クラス８トラック発注がことしのこれまでと同様にひどい。 Class 8 orders were crushed 71% in September, reaching 12,600 units, according to Baird and Morgan Stanley. ９月にクラス８トラック発注が７１％下落し、１２，６００台となった、Baird and Morgan Stanleyのデータだ。 This follows a 79% plunge in August. ８月の７９％下落に次ぐ悪さだ。 This makes September the 11th consecutive month of YOY order declines and the 9th consecutive month of orders below 20,000. この９月で１１か月連続でYoY発注が下落している、また９か月連続で２０，０００台を下回った。 Class 8 orde...
Gold - Preparing For The Next Move by Tyler Durden Fri, 03/22/2019 - 05:00 Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com, Note: this article is not and must not be construed as investment advice. It is analysis based purely on economic theory and empirical evidence. この記事は単なる分析であり、投資を推奨するものではない。 The global economic outlook is deteriorating. Government borrowing in the deficit countries will therefore escalate. US Treasury TIC data confirms foreigners have already begun to liquidate dollar assets, adding to the US Government’s future funding difficulties. The next wave of monetary inflation, required to fund budget deficits and keep banks solvent, will not prevent financial assets suffering a severe bear market, because the scale of monetary dilution will be so large that the purchasing power of the dollar and other currencies will ...
