Something's not quite right... 何か全くおかしい・・・
With economic data disappointing en masse and US equity earnings
expectations plummeting, talking heads have one last leg left on the
stool of buy-and-hold - jobs, jobs, jobs! The unemployment rate (low),
participation rate (people coming back into the workforce), wage growth
(rising at fastest pace in 10 years), initial jobless claims (back near
multi-decade lows), and JOLTS (more jobs offered than people available).
So, why are continuing jobless claims surging in a not-noisy manner higher for the last six months? では、どうして失業保険申請が６か月連続で増え続けるのだろう、これはノイズではない？
We have seen this before...
以前も同様のことがあった・・・
And in fact 2019 is now the worst start to a year for continuing claims since 2009...
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれました。 Big Silver-Stock Potential Adam Hamilton February 7, 2020 2689 Words The silver miners’ stocks are looking interesting. While they really lagged silver’s surge on gold’s bull-market-breakout rally last summer, their upleg since remains intact. Gold stocks’ own upleg peaked in early September. And silver itself remains wildly undervalued relative to gold, overdue to mean revert dramatically higher. When that happens during gold’s next upleg, the silver stocks have big potential to soar. Like the global silver market is vastly smaller than gold’s, silver stocks are a proportionally-little fraction of the precious-metals miners. As a small subset of a usually-ignored contrarian sector, the silver stocks often languish in obscurity. For decades there wasn’t even a silver-stock index, making sector analysis difficult. ...
最後の二段落だけ訳をいれましょう。 Gold-Stock Head Fake? Adam Hamilton January 3, 2020 3174 Words Gold miners’ stocks blasted higher this past week, breaking out of their correction downtrend. Rapidly-improving psychology fueled such strong upside momentum that sector benchmarks are challenging months-old upleg highs. Most traders assume this is righteous, that gold stocks’ next upleg is starting to accelerate. But key indicators argue the contrarian side, that this breakout surge is a head fake within a correction. In early September, a major gold-stock upleg peaked after soaring higher on gold’s decisive bull-market breakout in late June. The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF, this sector’s leading benchmark and trading vehicle, had powered 76.2% higher over 11.8 months. It crested the same day gold’s own upleg did, hitting $30.95 on close. That ma...
Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q4’19 Fundamentals Adam Hamilton March 20, 2020 3250 Words The mid-tier gold miners’ stocks have been annihilated with COVID-19 fears infecting traders’ sentiment. They crashed with gold getting hammered on extreme gold-futures selling! With blood in the streets, the buy-low opportunities are phenomenal. The fundamentally-superior mid-tier gold miners have epic upside potential during gold’s next upleg. This key sector just reported outstanding Q4’19 results on higher gold. The sheer carnage in gold-stock-land has been jaw-dropping! In late February, the gold-stock sector per its leading benchmark GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF edged up to a 3.5-year high slightly above early September’s. That was fueled by gold’s $1600 breakout surge on COVID-19 fears. Yet as I warned in an essay the trading day before GDX’s pe...
最後の２段落だけ、訳を入れておきました。 Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 4 Adam Hamilton November 1, 2019 3158 Words The gold miners’ stocks have surged in 2019, blasting higher after gold’s first bull-market breakout seen in several years. That powerful summer rally left them really overbought, necessitating a correction to rebalance exuberant sentiment. That grinding consolidation lower has set them up nicely for their winter rally, this sector’s seasonally-strongest time of the year. These seasonal tailwinds will amplify their next upleg. Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions...
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれておきました。 Gold Buying Precarious Adam Hamilton January 10, 2020 3366 Words Gold dramatically surged to major new secular highs this past week, fueled by stunning geopolitical news. The US assassinated Iran’s top general, so Iran fired ballistic missiles at military bases in Iraq used by the US. That naturally ramped gold bullishness, spawning all kinds of predictions for much-higher prices. But geopolitically-driven gold spikes never last long, and the gold buying behind this surge is very precarious. Geopolitics are fascinating, the modern intersection of centuries of history, politics, religion, and military actions. Growing up, geopolitics were my second passion after the markets. I read everything I could on that broad topic, both nonfiction and fiction. Tom Clancy’s masterful novels were my favorites, and I love that wh...
