Back
in December 2018, when conventional wisdom was falsely convinced by the
handshake between Trump and Xi that the tariff war between the US and
China would soon end, we warned that not only is the trade war nowhere near over, far from it, but that semiconductors
had "become the central battlefield in the trade war between the two
countries. And it is a battle in which China has a very visible Achilles
heel." ２０１８年１２月を振り返ると、浅知恵で間違っていたのだが、トランプと習近平が手を握り米中関税戦争はすぐに終わると見られていた、そのときZeroHedgeはこう警告していた、貿易戦争はそう簡単に終わらないだけでなく、さらに激化し、「半導体分野が二国間貿易戦争の激戦地となるだろう。そしてこの戦争では明らかにこの分野は中国のアキレス腱だ。と」
Today, SaxoBank's head of equity strategy, Peter Garnry, not only
confirms what we said nearly 6 months ago, but also notes that as the
trade war evolves into a technology cold, many industries stand to lose
but semiconductor companies are more exposed than anything else. "Add in the rising risk of recession and you’ve got what looks like a perfect storm", he notes ominously.
His full note is below: 彼の主張の全文はこちら：
In our recent trade war analysis "Are you ready for a Cold War in tech? " we argued that the world has seen the starting signal of a Cold War in technology between the US and China. The
most likely outcome of the US ban of Huawei due to national security
issues is that the global supply chain will come under attack the next
couple of decades. Many industries from transportation,
semiconductors, biotechnology, rare earth minerals etc. will all most
likely be deemed of national security to both the US and China. If the
rivalry intensifies between the two countries the only sensible
trajectory from here is a global supply chain separation. US and China
will seek to make themselves independent of each other to limit the
political downside risk in an escalating trade and technology war
Semiconductors are bleeding and it will continue 半導体はすでに苦しんでおりこれは継続するだろう。
Since the US escalated the trade war by increasing the tariffs from
10% to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods on May 6 semiconductors have
been tanking. The industry group can be divided into two groups:
semiconductor equipment makers and pure semiconductor manufacturers.
We have devised two custom indices tracking those two industries to
measure the impact on the global supply chain the trade war. As the
chart below shows the semiconductor industry is hurting from the
US-China trade war escalation and our view is that it will continue.
Investors should stay underweight semiconductors. In our last trade war analysis we highlighted the US companies with the biggest exposure to China and the majority of those are in fact US semiconductor companies.
Another
reason to be negative on semiconductors is that earnings have most
likely topped and valuations will have to reflect this over the next 12
months. We see the risk of recession going up from our standpoint of
just three months ago and in the case of a global recession
semiconductor companies would be hit the hardest. To make it a
perfect storm we also expect it to coincide with the beginning of a new
AI winter which will dramatically slow down the growth in
semiconductors.
US semiconductor companies have most to lose 米国半導体企業がもっとも打撃を受ける
If we look at how semiconductor manufacturers are performing based on
their geography we see a clear sign that US companies stand to lose the
most, together with South Korea. If the global supply chain in the
semiconductor industry is being reconfigured US semiconductor companies
will lose short-term revenue in China and will have to invest in new
manufacturing facilities in other countries.
Chinese semiconductor companies will on the other hand be more
directly supported by the Chinese government and thus win out relatively
speaking. But what about WTO rules about state support? In our
view the WTO framework is at risk of being obsolete as the US is clearly
steering away from multilateral trade deals towards bilateral deals. In this world order China would not be accountable for state sponsorship of semiconductors inside WTO.
European semiconductor companies could win relatively in the short-term
but they face the risk that Europe eventually choose the US over China
in the new political future. The caveat here is that Europe needs strong
exports to offset weak domestic growth and here China offers more
upside potential than the US economy. European politicians are entering a
minefield over the next decade as they feel squeezed between the
diverging interests of the US and China.
US equities have broadly outperformed これまで米国株は幅広くアウトパフォームしてきた
Outside the casualties in semiconductors the US equity market has in
fact outperformed the five countries running the biggest trade surplus
against the US. Our trade war ETF basket shows that US equities have
outperformed by 22%-points since early 2018 when the trade war broke
out. In the markets view trade surplus countries are more vulnerable.
Only time will tell whether this is in fact true or not.
この記事よりももっと詳しい分析がこちらにあります。： https://www.adamtownsend.me/china-financial-stability-report/ 元データは毎年開示されるPBOCの英文報告に基づいたものです： http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/130736/index.html ただ、毎年２００ページ超もあり、そう簡単に読みこなせるものではありません。この記事の表のようなわかりやすい形で整理して開示はしていません。この記事の表にはどの年の何ページに書かれたデータであるかが示されています。日本語ネットの記事ではシャードーバンクの規模がよくわからないというものが多いですが、毎年PBOC自らがシャドーバンク規模を自ら認めています。その規模は驚くものです。 この記事に書かれている数値は驚くばかりです。ここまで信用創造をしているのかと驚きます。そりゃ昨年来RRRの低減とかの緩和策を連発してますが、効果が無いのももっともです。これまでの緩和の規模からすると昨年のこの手の緩和はその規模が全く足りないですね。一年以上前にZeroHedgeで中国企業の殆どがミンスキーポイントを超えている、企業の営業利益で債務金利が賄えず利払いのために新たな借金をしている、というのが詳しくデータで示されていましたが、なるほどなと思います。 The Black Swan So Ugly No One Will Talk About It by Phoenix Capita… Fri, 01/11/2019 - 11:55 The biggest black swan facing the financial system is China. 金融システムが直面する最大のブラックスワンは中国だ。 China has been the primary driver of growth for the global economy since the 2008 Crisis...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
