S&Pが新高値をつけた時、唯一の買い手は自社株買いだった；それ以外は全員が売り手

コメント欄に詳しい解説が書き込まれています。ぜひ、一読を。

When The S&P Hit A Record High, The Only Buyer Was Buybacks; Everyone Else Was Selling

by Tyler Durden

Tue, 05/07/2019 - 14:26

Bloomberg's Michael Regan has taken a lot of heat for his Friday article "The U.S. Stock Market Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop Its Endless Rally", which prompted some to ask if Bloomberg, with its "millennialized", click-optimized newsroom, has become the new Barron's.

ブルームバーグのMichael Regan が金曜の記事で熱く語った「米国株式市場は止まることはない、止まること無きエンドレスラリーだ」、この記事を見てブルームバーグが変貌したのではないかと思う人もいた、「千年王国的か」、アクセス獲得の見せかけHPに変わったか、新手のバロン誌に変貌したか、という具合だ。


And yet, Regan's less than prescient headline notwithstanding, he made an accurate point in his teaser, namely that "regular investors are leaving."
That, as we have pounded the table week after week after week, has been the real story of 2019 - not the relentless, artificial melt-up in the market on the back of a dovish reversal by central banks and the daily US-China trade talk "optimism" which we now know is not happening.

Reganのまるで予見にもならないような見出しで、彼は自らが抱く難問を表現した、その言わんとする所は「一般投資家はすでにいなくなった」ということだ。それはZeroHedgeがこれまで毎週毎週示してきたことで、２０１９年の市場の実相だーー絶え間なくというわけでもないが、中央銀行のハト派転換と毎日の米中貿易交渉「楽観」報告で人工的に市場はメルトアップされてきた、ところが今回大統領のツイッターをきっかけに、この貿易交渉楽観はそうではないことを皆が知ることになった。

Confirming that this trend continued for one more week, even as the S&P hit new all time highs, Bank of America's strategist Jill Carey Hall writes that last week, during which the S&P 500 was up +0.2%, virtually everyone sold stocks, as "Institutional clients, hedge funds and private clients sold the highs in equities last week." And yet, somehow the S&P hit a new all time high. How? The answer: "Corporate buybacks ramped up."


このトレンドが更にもう一週続くことを確認して、S&Pが新高値となっても、BoAストラテジストのJill Carey Hallは先週こういう記事を書いた、S&P500が０．２％上昇しほとんど誰もが株式を売る中でこういう記事を書いたのだ、「法人顧客、ヘッジファンド、個人顧客は先週の高値で株式を売った」。それでもS&Pは新高値をつけた。どうしてか？その答えは：「自社株買いが積み上がった。」

As BofA elaborates, "buying was led by corporate buybacks, as all other groups (hedge funds, institutional and retail clients) were net sellers of equities for the second consecutive week."  This means that for one more week, traditional investors were - as Regan noted above - boycotting stocks, and were delighted to sell stock back to the companies that were once again aggressively buying back their own stock with the S&P hitting all time highs, to wit:

BoAの詳細な調査では、「自社株買いが買いを先導した、他のどのグループ（ヘッジファンド、法人、個人）も二週続けてネット売り手だった」。ということはさらにもう一週、Reganが上で述べた伝統的な投資家たちはーー株式を拒否し、喜んで株式を企業に手渡した、S&Pが新高値となる中で企業は積極的に自社株買いを行った、見てみよう：

• Clients were net sellers of single stocks (2nd straight week), but continued to buy ETFs (8th straight week). Cumulative flows into ETFs YTD turned positive, reversing outflows seen earlier this year (Chart 1).
  
  ２週続けて顧客は個別銘柄の売り手だった、しかし引き続きETFを買った（８週連続だ）。ETFへの年初来での積算資金流入はプラスになり、年初の流出から変転した（チャート１）。
• Buybacks last week were their highest since early Feb: they tend to be strong during earnings seasons and seasonally peak in mid/late May. Buybacks YTD are +20% YoY, though the growth rate continues to decline.
  
  先週の自社株買いは２月初め以来最高のもので：決算発表で強くなる傾向にあり５月半ば／後半に季節的なピークを迎える。年初来の自社株買いはYoYで２０％増えた、ただし増加率は鈍化し続けている。

But if everyone else was selling, how did buybacks offset the selling avalanche? Simple: according to BofA's stock repurchase desk, "buybacks last week were their highest since early Feb: they tend to be strong during earnings seasons and seasonally peak in mid/late May. Buybacks YTD are +20% YoY, though the growth rate continues to decline."

しかし、他の全員が売っていると言うなら、自社株買いがどのように売り連鎖を相殺したのだろう？それは単純なことだ：BoAの自社株買い受付窓口によると、「先週の自社株買いは２月初め以来で最高のものだった：彼らは決算発表後に強くなり、季節的に５月半ば／後半にピークを迎える。年初来の自社株買いはYoYで２０％超である、ただし増加率は鈍化している。」


While this means that we can once and for all forget about the recurring lie of a buyback blackout period - which as we explained before applies only to a very narrow subset of stock repurchases - it also means that we have reached a level of market lethargy where stock buybacks are powerful enough to offset all other selling. .


ということはかつて繰り返された自社株買いブラックアウト期間に対する考え方が間違いでーーかつてZeroHedgeが解説してきたことは自社株買いのほんの一面を見ていたに過ぎないーーそしてまたこの意味するところは、市場機能は昏睡状態になっており、自社株買いが他のすべての売りを圧倒している。