Across the world, warning signs are flashing about the state of the economy. 世界中で経済状態に警告シグナルが点滅している。
Three-fourths of the global economy (per GDP) will experience a
slowdown this year. The pause in growth has unquestionably transmitted
through the global smartphone industry, sending shipment volumes down
6.6% YoY in 1Q19, according to new data from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
世界経済の3/4は今年経済減速となるだろう。成長停滞は疑うこと無く世界的スマートフォーン産業にも影響する、すでに2019Q1の出荷数はYoYで6.6%下落している、最新のIDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Trackerによるものだ。
Smartphone vendors (Samsung, Huawei, Apple, Xiaomi, Vivo, Oppo, and
others) shipped 310.8 million units in 1Q19, recorded the sixth
consecutive quarter of decline. Last year, smartphone shipments fell
4.1% over 2017, as 1Q19 was down 3.5% -- about half of what the market
experienced in 1Q19, indicating the slowdown has only accelerated.
The plunge in demand is more proof that 2019 will be another huge down year for worldwide smartphone shipments. 2019にはさらに需要が後退し、世界的に出荷数が減るだろう。
At the heart of these high-tech handheld gadgets, are microprocessor
chips that serve as the central processing unit. Earlier this week, we highlighted a report from the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) that warned of a 13% drop YoY in 1Q19 in chips, a direct correlation to waning demand from smartphones.
However, there was one green shoot, Huawei become number two
smartphone manufacturer in the world, with smartphone shipments
increasing 50% YoY in 1Q19.
"It is becoming increasingly clear that Huawei is laser focused on
growing its stature in the world of mobile devices, with smartphones
being its lead horse," said Ryan Reith, program vice president with
IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. "The overall smartphone market
continues to be challenged in almost all areas, yet Huawei was able to
grow shipments by 50%, not only signifying a clear number two in terms
of market share but also closing the gap on the market leader Samsung.
This new ranking of Samsung, Huawei, and Apple is very likely what we'll
see when 2019 is all said and done."
「とても明らかなのはHuaweiが注目の的だ、世界の移動体デバイス業界で地位を上げている、 スマートフォンがその典型だ、」とRyan Reithは言う、彼はIDC Worldwide Mobile Device Trackersの副社長だ。スマートフォン市場はあらゆる分野で挑戦を受けている、それでもHuaweiは50%の成長を果たし、マーケットシェアで第二位の地位を獲得するだけでなく、戦闘のSamsungとの距離を縮めている。新たなランキングでは、Samsung, Huawei そしてAppleの順番で、結局の所2019通年でもこうなるだろう。」
IDC poured cold water on a 2H19 rebound in China, indicating the
smartphone industry in the country will likely be "challenged" for the
remainder of 2019, and noted that the epicenter of the downturn was in
North America. US smartphone shipments declined 15% YoY during 1Q19 as
replacements rates slowed. Apple iPhone, Samsung, and LG Electronics
performed rather poor in 1Q19.
"The less than stellar first quarter in the United States can be
attributed to the continued slowdown we are witnessing at the high end
of the market," said Anthony Scarsella, research manager with IDC's
Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "Consumers continue to hold on
to their phones longer than before as newer higher priced models offer
little incentive to shell out top dollar to upgrade. Moreover, the
pending arrival of 5G handsets could have consumers waiting until both
the networks and devices are ready for prime time in 2020."
米国ではQ1ほどに確実ではなく、その原因はハイエンド製品の減速に見られる、」とAnthony Scarsellaは言う、彼はIDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker
の調査マネージャだ。「消費者はかつてよりも長期間携帯電話を利用する傾向にあり、大枚をはたいて高価な新製品を買おうとはあまり思わない。更に言うと、端末とネットワークが5G対応するのは2020年とみており、それまで先延ばしにしている。
The deterioration in smartphone sales forced LG Electronics in South Korea
last month to suspend all smartphone production in the country. The
South Korean based electronics company is expected to transfer resources
to Vietnam, which follows a list of multinationals reorganizing their
complex supply chains as a global synchronized slowdown gains momentum
in 2Q.
Samsung controls 23.1% of the global market share, the largest out of
any company, but it's down 8.1% from 78.2 million shipments in 1Q18.
Huawei logged a 50.3% increase in shipments, shifting the Shenzhen based
company to the second largest smartphone manufacturer in the world with
59.1 million shipments, while Apple was demoted to the third spot since
its orders crashed 30.2% YoY to 36.4 million shipments.
Both reports from IDC and SIA suggest the second half rebound that
has already been priced into global stock markets through multiple
expansion is merely a fantasy. Perhaps, the plunge in smartphone and
semiconductor chip demand is a sign the global economy is still
crumbling.
We'll leave readers with a chart of where the global economy in terms
of trade volume is headed. As shown below, the move is down and it's
likely to be met with new rounds of global central bank easing.
The Next Decade Will Likely Foil Most Financial Plans by Tyler Durden Tuesday, Jan 26, 2021 - 15:20 Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, There are many individuals in the market today who have never been through an actual “bear market.” These events, while painful, are necessary to “reset the table” for outsized market returns in the future. Without such an event, it is highly likely the next decade will foil most financial plans. 現在の市場参加者の多くは本当の「ベアマーケット」を経験していない。こういう事が起きると、痛みを伴うが、将来の大きなリターンを可能にするために必要なちゃぶ台返しとなる。これがないと、多くのファイナンシャルプランは今後10年ひどいことになりそうだ。 No. The March 2020 correction was not a bear market. As noted: 2020年3月の調整はベアマーケットと呼べるようなものではなかった。以前にも指摘したが: A bull market is when the price of the market is trending higher over a long-term period. ブル相場とは長期に渡り市場価格が上昇するものだ。 A bear market is when the previous advance breaks, and prices begin to trend lower. ベア相場とはこれまでの上昇が止まり、市場価格が下落し始めることだ。 The chart belo...
The Fed And The Treasury Have Now Merged by Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2020 - 14:21 Submitted by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research As I've argued, the Fed and the Treasury merged. Powell said this was the case today (from his Q&A): 私はこれまでも申し上げてきたが、すでにFEDと財務省は一体化している。Powell自身がこれに当たると今日話した(彼の Q&Aでのことだ): These programs we are using, under the laws, we do these, as I mentioned in my remarks, with the consent of the Treasury Secretary and the fiscal backing from the congress through the Treasury. And we are doing it to provide credit to households, businesses, state and local governments. As we are directed by the Congress. We are using that fiscal backstop to absorb any losses we have. 我々FEDが今行っている一連のプログラムは、法に基づいており、それを実行している、私が注意喚起したが、 財務長官の同意を得ており、財政に関しては議会の承認も得ている。私どもは家計、ビジネス、連邦地方政府に貸付を行っている。議会の意向のもとに我々は行動している。以下ほどに損失が生じようともそれを財政的に支えている。 Our ability is limited...