Across the world, warning signs are flashing about the state of the economy. 世界中で経済状態に警告シグナルが点滅している。
Three-fourths of the global economy (per GDP) will experience a
slowdown this year. The pause in growth has unquestionably transmitted
through the global smartphone industry, sending shipment volumes down
6.6% YoY in 1Q19, according to new data from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
世界経済の３／４は今年経済減速となるだろう。成長停滞は疑うこと無く世界的スマートフォーン産業にも影響する、すでに２０１９Q1の出荷数はYoYで６．６％下落している、最新のIDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Trackerによるものだ。
Smartphone vendors (Samsung, Huawei, Apple, Xiaomi, Vivo, Oppo, and
others) shipped 310.8 million units in 1Q19, recorded the sixth
consecutive quarter of decline. Last year, smartphone shipments fell
4.1% over 2017, as 1Q19 was down 3.5% -- about half of what the market
experienced in 1Q19, indicating the slowdown has only accelerated.
The plunge in demand is more proof that 2019 will be another huge down year for worldwide smartphone shipments. ２０１９にはさらに需要が後退し、世界的に出荷数が減るだろう。
At the heart of these high-tech handheld gadgets, are microprocessor
chips that serve as the central processing unit. Earlier this week, we highlighted a report from the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) that warned of a 13% drop YoY in 1Q19 in chips, a direct correlation to waning demand from smartphones.
However, there was one green shoot, Huawei become number two
smartphone manufacturer in the world, with smartphone shipments
increasing 50% YoY in 1Q19.
"It is becoming increasingly clear that Huawei is laser focused on
growing its stature in the world of mobile devices, with smartphones
being its lead horse," said Ryan Reith, program vice president with
IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. "The overall smartphone market
continues to be challenged in almost all areas, yet Huawei was able to
grow shipments by 50%, not only signifying a clear number two in terms
of market share but also closing the gap on the market leader Samsung.
This new ranking of Samsung, Huawei, and Apple is very likely what we'll
see when 2019 is all said and done."
「とても明らかなのはHuaweiが注目の的だ、世界の移動体デバイス業界で地位を上げている、 スマートフォンがその典型だ、」とRyan Reithは言う、彼はIDC Worldwide Mobile Device Trackersの副社長だ。スマートフォン市場はあらゆる分野で挑戦を受けている、それでもHuaweiは５０％の成長を果たし、マーケットシェアで第二位の地位を獲得するだけでなく、戦闘のSamsungとの距離を縮めている。新たなランキングでは、Samsung, Huawei そしてAppleの順番で、結局の所２０１９通年でもこうなるだろう。」
IDC poured cold water on a 2H19 rebound in China, indicating the
smartphone industry in the country will likely be "challenged" for the
remainder of 2019, and noted that the epicenter of the downturn was in
North America. US smartphone shipments declined 15% YoY during 1Q19 as
replacements rates slowed. Apple iPhone, Samsung, and LG Electronics
performed rather poor in 1Q19.
"The less than stellar first quarter in the United States can be
attributed to the continued slowdown we are witnessing at the high end
of the market," said Anthony Scarsella, research manager with IDC's
Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "Consumers continue to hold on
to their phones longer than before as newer higher priced models offer
little incentive to shell out top dollar to upgrade. Moreover, the
pending arrival of 5G handsets could have consumers waiting until both
the networks and devices are ready for prime time in 2020."
米国ではQ1ほどに確実ではなく、その原因はハイエンド製品の減速に見られる、」とAnthony Scarsellaは言う、彼はIDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker
の調査マネージャだ。「消費者はかつてよりも長期間携帯電話を利用する傾向にあり、大枚をはたいて高価な新製品を買おうとはあまり思わない。更に言うと、端末とネットワークが５G対応するのは２０２０年とみており、それまで先延ばしにしている。
The deterioration in smartphone sales forced LG Electronics in South Korea
last month to suspend all smartphone production in the country. The
South Korean based electronics company is expected to transfer resources
to Vietnam, which follows a list of multinationals reorganizing their
complex supply chains as a global synchronized slowdown gains momentum
in 2Q.
Samsung controls 23.1% of the global market share, the largest out of
any company, but it's down 8.1% from 78.2 million shipments in 1Q18.
Huawei logged a 50.3% increase in shipments, shifting the Shenzhen based
company to the second largest smartphone manufacturer in the world with
59.1 million shipments, while Apple was demoted to the third spot since
its orders crashed 30.2% YoY to 36.4 million shipments.
Both reports from IDC and SIA suggest the second half rebound that
has already been priced into global stock markets through multiple
expansion is merely a fantasy. Perhaps, the plunge in smartphone and
semiconductor chip demand is a sign the global economy is still
crumbling.
We'll leave readers with a chart of where the global economy in terms
of trade volume is headed. As shown below, the move is down and it's
likely to be met with new rounds of global central bank easing.
この記事よりももっと詳しい分析がこちらにあります。： https://www.adamtownsend.me/china-financial-stability-report/ 元データは毎年開示されるPBOCの英文報告に基づいたものです： http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/130736/index.html ただ、毎年２００ページ超もあり、そう簡単に読みこなせるものではありません。この記事の表のようなわかりやすい形で整理して開示はしていません。この記事の表にはどの年の何ページに書かれたデータであるかが示されています。日本語ネットの記事ではシャードーバンクの規模がよくわからないというものが多いですが、毎年PBOC自らがシャドーバンク規模を自ら認めています。その規模は驚くものです。 この記事に書かれている数値は驚くばかりです。ここまで信用創造をしているのかと驚きます。そりゃ昨年来RRRの低減とかの緩和策を連発してますが、効果が無いのももっともです。これまでの緩和の規模からすると昨年のこの手の緩和はその規模が全く足りないですね。一年以上前にZeroHedgeで中国企業の殆どがミンスキーポイントを超えている、企業の営業利益で債務金利が賄えず利払いのために新たな借金をしている、というのが詳しくデータで示されていましたが、なるほどなと思います。 The Black Swan So Ugly No One Will Talk About It by Phoenix Capita… Fri, 01/11/2019 - 11:55 The biggest black swan facing the financial system is China. 金融システムが直面する最大のブラックスワンは中国だ。 China has been the primary driver of growth for the global economy since the 2008 Crisis...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
