もし中国がスーパーパワーを持ちたいなら、相応の規模の自国通貨を発行せねばならず、かつ世界の為替市場に価格発見能力を持たせねばならない。 Quick history quiz: in all of recorded history, how many
superpowers pegged their currency to the currency of a rival superpower? Put another way: how many superpowers have made their own currency dependent on another superpower's currency?
Only one: China. China pegs its currency, the yuan
(RMB) to the U.S. dollar. It adjusts the peg a bit here and there, but
the yuan's value is set by the Chinese state, not by the market of
buyers and sellers.
(Yes, various nations have used gold coins minted by rival powers
(Spanish pieces of eight were money everywhere, for example) but we're
talking about fiat currencies, backed by nothing but supply and demand, not intrinsically valuable gold coins.)
Second question: is pegging your currency to a rival power's currency a sign of strength? The
obvious answer is no. It's a sign of weakness. A real financial power
issues its own currency and let's the global FX (foreign exchange)
market discover the relative price / value of the currency. The
financial power trusts the market to discover the value / price of its
currency, and it responds by raising or lowering the yields on its
government bonds and other pricing inputs. If the issuing nation won't allow users and owners of its currency price discovery, few will want the currency because they can't trust the state's arbitrary, non-market price. This
reality is reflected in the chart below of global currencies' relative
share in global payments, loans and reserves. China's currency, the yuan
(RMB) is basically signal noise: its global role in payments, loans and
reserves is near-zero.
Why does China cling to state control of its currency's valuation? The
obvious answer is that China's economy and global role are too fragile
to absorb a major revaluation of its currency up or down: a major loss
in purchasing power would raise the cost of energy and other imports,
while a major strengthening of the yuan would crush the global
competitiveness of China's goods and services. As for the idea that China will unpeg its currency when it
backs it with gold, recall that "backed by gold" means "convertible to
gold." If the yuan weakens and other nation-state owners of the
currency decide gold is the safer bet, China will have to exchange yuan
for gold if it wants to make good on its claim to be backing its
currency with gold.
どうして中国は自国通貨価値の国家支配にここまでこだわるのだろう？答えは明らかで、中国経済とその世界での役割はあまりに脆弱で通貨評価の上下を吸収できないということだ：大きく購買力が下がるとエネルギーや他の輸入コストを上げることになる、一方でRMBが大きく強くなると中国製品の世界的競争力を急落させてしまう。中国がペッグを止めてゴールド裏付けとする議論に関しては、「backed by gold」というのは「convertible to gold」ということだ。もしRMBが弱くなり他国が持つRMBをゴールドに変えたほうが安全と思うと、中国はRMBをゴールドに変えざるを得ない。
If the currency isn't convertible to gold, it isn't backed by gold at all; it's just another fiat currency backed by nothing.
ゴールド変換ができないなら、backed by gold とは全く言えない；全く裏付けのない別の管理通貨ということだ。
If China wants superpower status, it will have to issue its currency in size and let the global FX market discover its price. Anything less leaves China dependent on the U.S. and its currency, the dollar.
If China is so powerful, why doesn't it let its currency float on the
FX market like other trading nations? Until its currency floats freely
like other currencies and the yuan's price is discovered by supply and
demand, China's global role in currency payments, loans and reserves
will remain near-zero. That is a weakness that appears to be
insurmountable. もし中国が底まで力強いなら、どうして他国のように為替市場の変動相場通貨にしないのか？他国と同様にRMBが変動相場となりRMB価格が需給で決まるようにならないかぎり、支払い・債務・準備金における中国の通貨の役割はほとんどゼロのままだろう。これは明らかに克服できない弱さだ。
* * *
文章全体がZeroHedge特有の皮肉で満ちています。 Global Earnings Downgrades At Highest Level In 10 Years by Tyler Durden Thu, 01/10/2019 - 16:45 As stock markets plunged in December, asset-gatherers and commission-takers (and politicians) rushed on to every media outlet to reassure everyone that the fundamentals are "solid", "extremely strong", "very positive" ... pick your spin. The only problem is that top-down, the fundamentals are dismally disappointing... １２月の株式急落で、株式を買い集めている人、手数料狙いの人（そして政治家）はメディアに出ずっぱりで誰もにこう訴えた、ファンダメンタルズは「健全」、「とても強い」、「とてもポジティブ」・・・みなさんもこれに振り回された。唯一の問題はこれらは上意下達であることだ、実際のファンダメンタルズは悲しいかな失望するものだ・・・・ And bottom-up, the fundamentals are almost as bad as they have ever been as analysts take the ax to their outlooks... the number of analysts’ global earnings downgrades exceeded upgrades by the most since 2...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
