もし中国がスーパーパワーを持ちたいなら、相応の規模の自国通貨を発行せねばならず、かつ世界の為替市場に価格発見能力を持たせねばならない。 Quick history quiz: in all of recorded history, how many
superpowers pegged their currency to the currency of a rival superpower? Put another way: how many superpowers have made their own currency dependent on another superpower's currency?
Only one: China. China pegs its currency, the yuan
(RMB) to the U.S. dollar. It adjusts the peg a bit here and there, but
the yuan's value is set by the Chinese state, not by the market of
buyers and sellers.
(Yes, various nations have used gold coins minted by rival powers
(Spanish pieces of eight were money everywhere, for example) but we're
talking about fiat currencies, backed by nothing but supply and demand, not intrinsically valuable gold coins.)
Second question: is pegging your currency to a rival power's currency a sign of strength? The
obvious answer is no. It's a sign of weakness. A real financial power
issues its own currency and let's the global FX (foreign exchange)
market discover the relative price / value of the currency. The
financial power trusts the market to discover the value / price of its
currency, and it responds by raising or lowering the yields on its
government bonds and other pricing inputs. If the issuing nation won't allow users and owners of its currency price discovery, few will want the currency because they can't trust the state's arbitrary, non-market price. This
reality is reflected in the chart below of global currencies' relative
share in global payments, loans and reserves. China's currency, the yuan
(RMB) is basically signal noise: its global role in payments, loans and
reserves is near-zero.
Why does China cling to state control of its currency's valuation? The
obvious answer is that China's economy and global role are too fragile
to absorb a major revaluation of its currency up or down: a major loss
in purchasing power would raise the cost of energy and other imports,
while a major strengthening of the yuan would crush the global
competitiveness of China's goods and services. As for the idea that China will unpeg its currency when it
backs it with gold, recall that "backed by gold" means "convertible to
gold." If the yuan weakens and other nation-state owners of the
currency decide gold is the safer bet, China will have to exchange yuan
for gold if it wants to make good on its claim to be backing its
currency with gold.
どうして中国は自国通貨価値の国家支配にここまでこだわるのだろう？答えは明らかで、中国経済とその世界での役割はあまりに脆弱で通貨評価の上下を吸収できないということだ：大きく購買力が下がるとエネルギーや他の輸入コストを上げることになる、一方でRMBが大きく強くなると中国製品の世界的競争力を急落させてしまう。中国がペッグを止めてゴールド裏付けとする議論に関しては、「backed by gold」というのは「convertible to gold」ということだ。もしRMBが弱くなり他国が持つRMBをゴールドに変えたほうが安全と思うと、中国はRMBをゴールドに変えざるを得ない。
If the currency isn't convertible to gold, it isn't backed by gold at all; it's just another fiat currency backed by nothing.
ゴールド変換ができないなら、backed by gold とは全く言えない；全く裏付けのない別の管理通貨ということだ。
If China wants superpower status, it will have to issue its currency in size and let the global FX market discover its price. Anything less leaves China dependent on the U.S. and its currency, the dollar.
If China is so powerful, why doesn't it let its currency float on the
FX market like other trading nations? Until its currency floats freely
like other currencies and the yuan's price is discovered by supply and
demand, China's global role in currency payments, loans and reserves
will remain near-zero. That is a weakness that appears to be
insurmountable. もし中国が底まで力強いなら、どうして他国のように為替市場の変動相場通貨にしないのか？他国と同様にRMBが変動相場となりRMB価格が需給で決まるようにならないかぎり、支払い・債務・準備金における中国の通貨の役割はほとんどゼロのままだろう。これは明らかに克服できない弱さだ。
* * *
想像していたことが起きはじめました。次はヨトウムシ被害が顕在化するのではないかと想像していますが、どうでしょうね。６月以来ヨトウムシ被害について北京政府の発表を目にしていません、そろそろ収穫期になります。 「この記事が面白いと思うなら、 Amaz onで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう 」 Chinese Imports Of US Pork Soar To The Highest Ever As Beijing Faces Food Crisis by Tyler Durden Thu, 10/10/2019 - 11:25 In a time when China is losing between a third and half of its pig herds as a result of the unprecedented decimation unleashed by African swine fever - less affectionately known as pig ebola - which has sent wholesale pork prices in China soaring to all time highs... アフリカ豚コレラの前代未聞の殺処分で中国の豚の１／３から１／２を失いーー豚エボラとも呼ばれるがーー中国豚肉卸価格が過去最高に急騰している・・・ ... and prompted local farmers to breed pigs the size of polar bears ... ・・こういう状況で当地の農家はホッキョクグマ級の豚を飼わざるを得ないという・・・ ... China is increasingly finding itself at America's mercy. ・・・中国は米国の慈悲に頼らざるを得ないという状況におちいりつつある。 As Bloomber
Manhattan Home Prices Tumble Most Since 2010... And Buyers Reappear by Tyler Durden Sun, 05/26/2019 - 21:00 Proving that higher prices aren't always better news, housing in Manhattan may finally be catching a bid after a nearly yearlong slump in prices has plunged far enough to finally attract buyers. Additionally, inventory growth finally looks to be slowing down. 価格上昇が必ずしも良いニュースではないことが判明した、マンハッタンの住宅が１年に及ぶ低迷で十分に下落し等々買い手がつくようになった。更に加えて、在庫増加が等々鈍化し始めた。 Manhattan home prices were thrashed again in April, falling the most since 2010 - but this time, there may be somewhat of a silver lining. The falling prices caused buyers to "pounce", resulting in 1,193 homes under contract during the month - more than any month since April of 2015, according to data provided by Bloomberg and StreetEasy. Perhaps deflation is not so evil afte
コメント欄に詳しい解説が書き込まれています。 英語でいうところの「buy back」と「insider buy」は異なる概念です。日本語の記事でどちらも自社株買いとされていることがあり、これを混同すると意味不明の記事になってしまいます。 The Great Stock Buyback Debate Written by Lance Roberts | May, 2, 2019 I recently wrote about stock buybacks in our weekly newsletter. However, a recent report from Axios noted that for 2019, IT companies are again on pace to spend the most on stock buybacks this year, as the total looks set to pass 2018’s $1.085 trillion record total. 最近私は週間記事で自社株買いに関して議論した。しかしながら、Axiosの最近の2019報告書によると、IT企業は再び今年その規模を増やしている、２０１８年は＄１．０８５Tと記録的規模だったが、今年はこれを超えそうだ。 “By the numbers: Companies so far have spent $272 billion on buybacks, data compiled by Mike Schoonover, COO of Catalyst Funds, for Axios shows. 「数値を見る限り：企業は＄２７２Bをすでに自社株買いに費やした、数値の解釈はMike Schoonoverによるものだ、彼はCatalyst FundsのCOOだ、Axiosがデータを示す。 Between the lines: The amount of spending on buybacks announced by companies in the IT sector has fallen significantly this year as other industries, par
