With
the trade war between the US and China re-escalating once more,
investors are again casting frightened glances at declining global trade
volumes, which as Bloomberg writes today, "threaten to upend the global
economy’s much-anticipated rebound and could even throw its decade-long
expansion into doubt if the conflict spirals out of control."
"Just as tentative signs appeared that a recovery is taking hold,
trade tensions have re-emerged as a credible and significant threat to
the business cycle," said Morgan Stanley's chief economist, Chetan Ahya,
highlighting a “serious impact on corporate confidence" from the tariff
feud.
To be sure, even before the latest trade war round, global growth and trade were already suffering,
confirmed most recently by last night's dismal China economic data,
which showed industrial output, retail sales and investment all sliding
in April by more than economists forecast.
A similar deterioration was observed in the US, where retail sales
unexpectedly declined in April while factory production fell for the
third time in four months. Meanwhile, over in Europe even though
Germany’s economy emerged from stagnation to grow by 0.4% in the first
quarter, "the outlook remains fragile amid a manufacturing slump that
will be challenged anew by the trade war." As a result, investor
confidence in Europe’s largest economy unexpectedly weakened this month
for the first time since October.
Framing the threat, a study by Bloomberg Economics calculated that
about 1% of global economic activity is at stake in goods and services
traded between the US and China. Almost 4% of Chinese output is exported
to the U.S. and any hit to its manufacturers would reverberate through
regional supply chains with Taiwan and South Korea among those at risk.
U.S. shipments to China are more limited, though 5.1% of its
agricultural production heads there as does 3.3% of its manufactured
goods.
米国から中国への出荷がさらに制限されており、農業生産の5.1%、製造業の3.3%は中国向けだ。
The macro fears are once again trickling down to the micro level, and
last week chip giant Intel tumbled after it guided to a "more cautious
view of the year," and Italian drinks maker Davide Campari-Milano SpA
this month noted the “uncertain geopolitical and macro economic
environment.”
“The world economy has been in a significant slowdown for a period,’’
said James Bevan, chief investment officer at CCLA Investment
Management. “People just have to wake up and look at the trade data.’’
But the best way to visualize just how serious the threat to global
flow of trade, and the world economy in general, below is a chart on the
year-over-year changes in global trade as measured by the IMF's
Direction of Trade Statistics, courtesy of BMO's Ian Lyngern. It shows
the absolutely collapse in global exports as broken down into three
categories:
そこで世界貿易や世界経済がどれほど深刻であるかを目の当たりにする方法は、下のチャートのYoY世界貿易変化を見ることだ、IMFのDirection of Trade Sataisticsが発表したデータだ、BMOの Ian Lyngernが提供してくれた。これを見ると世界輸出が急落しており、その内訳を3分類している:
Exports to the world (weakest since 2009),
Exports to advances economies (also lowest since 2009), and
Exports to the European Union (challenging 2009 lows).
In short, even before the latest round of trade escalation,
global trade had tumbled to levels last seen during the financial crisis
depression. One can only wonder what happens to global trade after the
latest escalation in US-China trade war...
簡単に言うと、直近の貿易係争の高まり前に、すでに世界貿易は急落しており、前回の金融危機恐慌レベルにまで下落している。直近の米中貿易戦争の加熱を見ると世界貿易がどうなるかを誰でも心配するだろう・・・
Commenting on the chart above, Lyngen writs that "as estimates of the
fallout from the renewed Trade War begin to reflect the growing
apprehension in a variety of markets, we're struck by the extent of the
drop in exports."
On Wednesday, markets were clearly not struck by the drop in exports,
or any other negative news for that matter, with the Dow ripping,
reversing its entire morning drop, and trading over 100 points in the
green at last check.
文章全体がZeroHedge特有の皮肉で満ちています。 Global Earnings Downgrades At Highest Level In 10 Years by Tyler Durden Thu, 01/10/2019 - 16:45 As stock markets plunged in December, asset-gatherers and commission-takers (and politicians) rushed on to every media outlet to reassure everyone that the fundamentals are "solid", "extremely strong", "very positive" ... pick your spin. The only problem is that top-down, the fundamentals are dismally disappointing... 12月の株式急落で、株式を買い集めている人、手数料狙いの人(そして政治家)はメディアに出ずっぱりで誰もにこう訴えた、ファンダメンタルズは「健全」、「とても強い」、「とてもポジティブ」・・・みなさんもこれに振り回された。唯一の問題はこれらは上意下達であることだ、実際のファンダメンタルズは悲しいかな失望するものだ・・・・ And bottom-up, the fundamentals are almost as bad as they have ever been as analysts take the ax to their outlooks... the number of analysts’ global earnings downgrades exceeded upgrades by the most since 2...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを7時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、2018年の最後の3ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...