Authored by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com, The Chinese came from nothing; only 40 years
ago, they had nothing but a billion impoverished peasants. No money. No
technology. No power. Today, they’re on par with the United States. But, if this trend continues – which it will – their economy will be triple the size of the US economy in 20 years.
中国は本当に無から出発した;40年前には本当に何もなく、何億人の貧しい農奴しかいなかった。マネー無し。技術なし。力なし。現在では、彼らは米国と肩をならべるまでになった。しかし、もしこのトレンドが続くならーーそうなりそうな気配だがーー彼らの経済規模はあと20年で米国の3倍にもなる。 Not just a trade war, but a shooting war with the Chinese seems inevitable.
これは貿易戦争ではない、むしろ中国とは実弾の飛び交う戦争が不可避に見える。
Because when tensions build up between states they eventually fight with each other. China is the major rising power. It’s
got four times the US population, it’s soon going to be more
economically powerful, and it’s going to reach military parity. It’s of a
different culture than the US. The US government may figure it’s best
to take them out while the balance still favors them. It’s a bit like
the situation was with the USSR in the ’80s. They could see they were
going into decline, and some Soviet generals figured it was “now or
never” for a successful war. Fortunately they collapsed first.
The Chinese don’t like seeing US aircraft carriers off their coast
any more than we would like to see Chinese aircraft carriers in the Gulf
of Mexico or off Santa Catalina Island.
The last thing that we need is a war with the Chinese.
But if something that’s been called the Thucydides Trap is valid – and I
think it is – then it’s highly likely. It refers to the Peloponnesian
War between Athens and Sparta, at the end of 5th century BC. The Trap is
sprung when a reigning power strikes out at the advancing power while
they still have a chance of winning.
The American military thinks that a shooting war is inevitable. And
it probably is. Why? Well, 5,000 years of history teaches us that it’s
better to start a war when you’re more powerful than your enemy rather
than wait until they’re more powerful than you. It’s always been this
way. The Golden Rule of statecraft is: Do unto others – but do it first.
It’s a very dangerous situation.
The US may do something stupid, like fabricate an incident, and
launch a preemptive strike against China. Or perhaps things just get out
of control, as they did in World War I.
The wars between European powers were bad enough. But when the US
fought Japan it actually turned into a race war. What happened in the
Pacific was far uglier than what happened in Europe. There were
basically no prisoners taken. The next big war – as opposed to a sport war, like those in
the Middle East – is likely to be with China. That could make World War
II look trivial by comparison. 欧州列強の間の戦争はひどいものだった。しかし米日戦争ではこれは民族間戦争となった。欧州戦線よりも太平洋戦争で起きたことは醜かった。基本的に捕虜なんていなかったのだ、お互い死ぬまで戦う。次の大戦ではーー中東のような武力紛争というものではなくーー中国とのものだ。こうなると第二次世界大戦など比較にならないほど些細なものに見えるだろう。
The Next Financial Crisis Will Be “The Big One”
次の金融危機は「大物」になるだろう。
Nobody has a crystal ball, but I think you can see the dominos lining up. Will
this be the big one, or will it just be another recession – an
inconvenience, followed by even bigger bubbles? It’s a question of odds.
And the more dominos that lineup – the political, economic, social,
demographic, military, and cultural dominos – the more logical that this
next one is going to be much bigger than what happened in 2008.
That’s why I use the analogy of 2007-2010 being the leading edge of
this hurricane. We’ve had a very big eye of the storm because of
absolutely massive money printing by central banks all over the world.
It’s had the effect of throwing oil on the water.
When we go into the trailing edge of this hurricane, it’s going to be
much worse, much different, and much longer lasting than the
unpleasantness of 2007-2010. Why? Because that was caused by inflation
and debt. We’ve had vastly more of that over the last decade to paper
over the problems. I think we’re re-entering the hurricane now.
But there’s always some good news. Here the good news is that
most of the real wealth in the world – skills, technologies, buildings,
things of that nature – won’t disappear just because the economy
collapses. Most of the real wealth will still be here. It’s just going
to change ownership. しかしいつものことながら良い知らせもある。今回の良い知らせとは、多くの世界の実資産ーースキル、技術、建物、自然ーーどれもが経済崩壊で消え去るわけではない。多くの実資産は生き残るだろう。単にその持ち主が変わるだけだ。
I look forward to moments of crisis – assuming that the system itself
is maintained in more or less its present form. In other words, it’s
possible to look forward to a financial crisis, if you can position
yourself to weather it. Financial crises come and go. It’s possible to
position yourself to profit from a financial crisis.
I’m not, however, looking forward to an economic crisis, or a
political crisis. Those can have major consequences. And I’m absolutely
not looking forward to a cultural crisis, which is by far the most
serious kind. Unfortunately, that is what we’re facing at this point.
Let’s just hope that what’s coming this time, over the next few
years, is limited to a financial crisis. But I don’t expect that’s the
case. I think it’s going to be economic, political, and cultural as
well.
* * * If the trade war between China and the US turns into a shooting
war, a complete economic collapse is sure to follow. That’s why we’re
sharing our field guide to Surviving and Thriving During an Economic
Collapse. Click here to download your free PDF copy now.
多量のオピオイドを米国に送り込み、米国で深刻な麻薬中毒問題を引き起こしています。現代版「阿片戦争」です。あのトヨタ初の女性取締役もオピオイド中毒で逮捕解任されましたよね。 US Is Dependent On China For Almost 80% Of Its Medicine by Tyler Durden Fri, 05/31/2019 - 12:55 Experts are warning that the U.S. has become way too reliant on China for all our medicine , our pain killers, antibiotics, vitamins, aspirin and many cancer treatment medicine. 専門家はこう警告する、米国はすべての医薬品、痛み止め、抗生物質、ビタミン、アスピリン、各種抗がん剤で、中国依存度が高すぎる。 Fox Business reports that according to FDA estimates at least 80 percent of active ingredients found in all of America’s medicine come from abroad, primarily from China . And it’s not just the ingredients, China wants to become the world’s dominant generic drug maker. So far Chinese companies are making generic for everything from high blood pressure to chemotherapy drugs. 90 percent of America’s prescriptions a...
日本と同じくPOMOになる公算が大きいとは思いますが、どうでしょうね。 米国大統領選挙の勝者と11月投票日前数ヶ月の株価の動向には9割以上の相関があります。はっきり言えば、公約とか主義主張には無関係です :) 。この時期株価を維持・上昇すると現職政党勝利、株価が下落すると挑戦政党勝利となります。熱心な民主党員活動家である前FED議長イエレンは頻繁に口先介入をしましたが、量的緩和再開まで踏み込めず、4年前の秋に株価が下落し、トランプ勝利となりました。株価と大統領選挙の相関をトランプは熟知しています、4年前には株価が下落するようしきりと口先介入していました。今年は11月まで株価を維持できるかどうか?どうでしょう。 Mark Your Calendar: Next Week The Fed's Liquidity Drain Begins by Tyler Durden Fri, 01/03/2020 - 14:54 What goes up, must come down, at least in theory. 上昇があれば、その後に下落が伴う、少なくとも理論上ではそうだ。 Ever since the start of October when the Fed launched QE4 - or as some still call it "Not QE" - in response to the Sept repo crisis, figuring out the market has been pretty simple: if the Fed's balance sheet goes up so does the S&P500, and vice versa. 10月にFEDがQE4を始めて以来ーー「Not QE」という人もいるがーー9月のレポ危機に対応したものだが、相場はとても単純になった:FEDがバランス...
What Could Go Wrong? The Fed's Warns On Corporate Debt by Tyler Durden Thu, 05/09/2019 - 11:44 Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, “So, if the housing market isn’t going to affect the economy, and low interest rates are now a permanent fixture in our society, and there is NO risk in doing anything because we can financially engineer our way out it – then why are all these companies building up departments betting on what could be the biggest crash the world has ever seen? What is more evident is what isn’t being said. Banks aren’t saying “we are gearing up just in case something bad happens.” Quite the contrary – they are gearing up for WHEN it happens. When the turn does come, it will be unlike anything we have ever seen before. The scale of it could be considerable because of the size of some...
先週の記事です。最後の2段落だけ訳をいれておきます。 Gold’s Peculiar Surge Adam Hamilton February 21, 2020 3246 Words Gold is enjoying an awesome week, surging back above $1600 for the first time in nearly 7 years! That big round psychologically-heavy level is really catching traders’ attention, great improving sentiment. Yet this recent gold surge has proven peculiar. Unlike normal rallies, the buying driving this one largely hasn’t come from gold’s usual primary drivers. The stealth buying behind this surge may impair its staying power. This Tuesday gold surged 1.2% higher to close near $1602. It hadn’t crested $1600 on close since way back in late March 2013 fully 6.9 years ago! Long-time gold traders shudder at the dark spring which followed. Within less than several weeks after that last $1600+ close, gold plummeted 16.2%. Most of that came in ...