とうとう始まった：史上初めて、中国政府が破産銀行を国有化

It Begins: For The First Time Ever, China Takes Over An Insolvent Bank

by Tyler Durden

Fri, 05/24/2019 - 14:39

There was a time when in the years following the financial crisis, every Friday the FDIC would report of one or more small and not small banks failing, as their liabilities exceeded their assets, who were taken over by larger peers with a taxpayer subsidy to cover the capital shortfall. And while this weekly event, also known as "FDIC Failure Friday" has faded from the US, for now, it has made a grand appearance in China.

金融危機後の数年間、毎週のようにFDIC連邦預金保険公社は中小銀行の倒産を報告していた時期があった、債務が資産を超えていたのだ、納税者の助けを得て買収されることで資金不足を解消した。そして今週起きたのは、「FDICの金曜の倒産」はもう米国では聞かないが、とうとう中国でそれが起きた。

China’s financial regulators said on Friday the country’s banking and insurance regulator and the central bank, will take control of the small, troubled inner Mongolia-based Baoshang Bank due to the serious credit risks it poses. The regulator’s control of Baoshang will last for a year starting on Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) said on their websites.

金曜に中国の金融監督当局が、内モンゴルの小さな問題銀行Baoshang Bankを当局の管理下に置くことを発表した、深刻な与信危機をはらんでいるためだ。金曜から一年間Baoshanを当局の管理下に置く、と中国人民銀行PBOCと中国銀行保険管理委員会CBIRCがホームページで開示した。


China Construction Bank (CCB) will be entrusted to handle the business operations of the small lender, based in the industrial city of Baotou, the statement said.

内モンゴルの小規模貸し手に対しては中国建設銀行が救済する、とその声明に書かれている。

Such a takeover by national authorities is extremely rare, and takes place amid gathering concerns among regulators and financial analysts about a renewed surge in bad debts...


このような国有化はとても稀なものだ、そして新たな不良債権急増を管理当局や金融アナリストが懸念する中でこの国有化が起きた・・・・


... a record pace of corporate defaults, amounting to 39.2 billion yuan of domestic bond defaults in the first four months of the year, 3.4 times the total for the same period of 2018...

・・・記録的な企業倒産だ、今年Q1だけで３９．２B人民元の国内債券デフォルトが起きている、２０１８年の同時期の３．４倍にもなる・・・・


... and the deteriorating health of small-scale banks in rural areas and small cities as China’s economy slows and enormous debts come due.

・・・そして地方の小規模銀行の健全性が悪化している、中国経済を見ると巨額債務が満期を迎えているのだ。

“It’s a rare move for the Chinese central government to take over a bank,” said Shujin Chen, an analyst with Huatai Securities.

「中国中央政府が銀行を国有化するのはとても稀なことだ、」とShujin Chenは言う、彼はHuatai Securitiesのアナリストだ。

Moody's analyst Yulia Wan told the WSJ that regulators likely decided to take over Baoshang to limit any fallout to businesses in Inner Mongolia. “The move is to reduce the risk of a shock to the local economy,” said said, adding that the Baoshang takeover appeared to be the first time that national authorities seized control of a bank since Chinese lenders started listing on stock markets in the 1990s. In the past when banks came under pressure, local authorities would pull together funds from local state-owned firms and investors, or have another bank stage a takeover.

ムーディーズのアナリスト Yulia WanがWSJに言うところでは、内モンゴルでのビジネスへの後遺症を限定するために当局はBaoshangの国有化を決めた。「この行動で地域経済への動揺を軽減する、」と彼は言う、さらに彼が言うには、中国の貸し手が株式上場をし始めた１９９０年代以来で、このBaoshangの国有化ははじめての出来事だ、と。これまでは銀行経営が悪化した時は地方当局が現地の国有企業や投資家の債権を買い上げるか、他の銀行に買収させた。


As Reuters adds, this extremely rare takeover - the first in nearly three decades - comes at a time when the PBOC has aggressively eased financial standards and cut reserve ratios for smaller banks to avoid just this outcome, and highlights the long struggle of some smaller regional lenders in China, which suffer from deteriorating asset qualities, inadequate capital buffers, and poor internal controls and corporate governance

ロイターによると、このとても稀な国有化ーーこの３０年ではじめての出来事ーーが起きた背景にPBOCが積極的に貸出条件を緩和し、こういうことが起きないように小型銀行の預金準備率を低下する中で起きた、結果として中国の地方銀行が長らく苦しんできた状況に光を当てた、債権の不良化、不十分な資本準備、そして不味い内部統制と企業ガバナンスだ。

Baoshang Bank rose to prominence after its key stakeholder Tomorrow Holdings was targeted in a government crackdown on systemic risks posed by financial conglomerates. The bank was also linked to financier Xiao Jianhua, according to the WSJ. Xiao left Hong Kong and crossed the border into mainland China in early 2017, according to statements from Hong Kong police and his company, and he hasn’t been heard from since.

大口出資者である Tomorrow Hodingsが金融コングロマリットに対するシステムリスク取締の対象となったことで、Baoshang Bankは注目を浴びた。当銀行はまたXiao Jianhua 肖建華からも資金を受けている、とWSJは記している。Xiao は２０１７年はじめに香港から中国本土に異動した、と香港警察や彼の会社は言う、そしてそれ以来消息が無い。


Later that year, Baoshang "unexpectedly" reported a capital shortage.

この年の遅く、Baoshangは「突然」資金不足を開示した。

Chinese ratings agency Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. then revised its outlook on Baoshang to negative, questioning the lender’s ability to repay borrowings. They were right.

中国の格付会社 Dagong Global Credit Rating Coはその時 Baoshanの見通しをネガティブに格下げした、借金返済に際しての貸し手能力に疑念が持たれたのだ。
彼らの判断は正しかった。

Understandably, there is concern the Baosheng takeover "will add to the vulnerability of country’s financial system amid the economic slowdown." The reason: if one bank can fail, all can fail. And how long before depositors jog, run or sprint to their own bank to yank whatever deposits they have there, in the process beginning the terrifying bank run domino sequence of events, that eventually collapses China's $40 trillion banking system (by comparison, the US banking system is about $20 trillion).

当然のことながら、Baosheng国有化に関す懸念がある、「中国の経済原則のなかで金融システムの脆弱性が増すだろうか？」。その理由は：もしひとつの銀行が倒産すると、全部が倒産するのではないか。そして預金者は自らの口座を引き出しに銀行へ駆け込むまでにどれくらいの残り時間があるのだろうか、恐ろしい銀行倒産連鎖が始まると、それはやがて中国全体の＄４０Tの銀行システムの崩壊へと向かう（比較のために言うと、米国の全銀行システム資産は約＄２０Tだ）。

While it has been generally described as a "small" bank, Baoshang had a total of 156.5 billion yuan ($22.68 billion) of outstanding loans by the end of 2016, a 65% jump from the end of 2014, according to the bank’s last filing on its assets and liabilities on its website. What is absolutely bizarre, however, is that the bank's "official" non-performing loan ratio then was only 1.68% as of December 2016. That, in itself, would never have been sufficient to force a takeover, and suggests that not only was the bank's real bad debt ratio much higher, but that China continues to chronically under-represent the true state of its NPLs to avoid bank runs.


「小型」銀行と表現されているが、Baoshangの２０１６年末の全貸出資産は１５６．５B人民元（＄２２．６８B)だ、２０１４年末から６５％も急増している、この数字は当行が自らのHPで記したデータだ。しかしながら本当に奇妙なことは、当行の「公式」不良債権割合は２０１６年１２月時点でわずか１．６８％しかない。こういう状況なら決して国有化など起きるはずがない、そして当行の本当の不良債権比率はもっと高いと示唆するだけでなく、中国は慢性的に本当の不良債権状況を過少申告していることを示唆している、倒産を回避するためだ。

The last time Baoshang disclosed financial data was in the third quarter of 2017. Then it had 576 billion yuan in assets and 543 billion yuan in liabilities, with a net profit of 3.2 billion yuan. Based on those 2017 numbers, analyst Long Chen with consulting firm Gavekal Dragonomics estimated that Baoshang back then was ranked around the 50th largest bank in the nation.

Baoshangが最後に金融データを開示したのは２０１７Q3だ。このとき資産が５７６B人民元で、債務は５４３B人民元だった、またネット利益は３．２B人民元だった。これらの２０１７年の数値からすると、Gavekal Dragonomicsコンサルティング会社のアナリストLong Chenの見積もりでは、当時Baoshangは５０番目に大きな銀行だった。

Naturally, to avoid a panic bank run among other smaller, less capitalized banks, the CBIRC said that principal and interest on personal saving accounts in the bank will be fully guaranteed, and the business operations of Baoshang bank will not be affected by the takeover.

当然のことながら、もっと小さな銀行の倒産混乱を回避するため、CBIRCは当行の預金者の元金と金利は完全に保証すると言った、そしてBaoshang銀行の業務は国有化で全く影響を受けないと述べた。

The takeover of the bank is the first in decades, and takes place amid China’s crackdown on systemic financial risks, which in February 2018 resulted in the take over of former roll-up giant and conglomerate Anbang Insurance, which in 2015-2016 made eyebrow-raising investments in overseas property, including the Waldorf Astoria hotel in New York. Anbang’s chairman, Wu Xiaohui, was sentenced to 18 years in prison later that year after being convicted of fraud and abuse of power. Wu expressed remorse, according to the court that sentenced him, but he also said he doubted he violated any laws. He hasn’t made a public statement since.

銀行国有化は何十年かではじめてのことだ、そして中国政府がシステマティックな金融リスクを取り締まる中で起きた、２０１８年２月には、かつての典型的巨大コングロマリットAnbang保険を国有化した、当社は２０１５−２０１６に海外不動産に驚くほどの投資をしていた、そのうちの一つがニューヨークのWaldorf Astoria ホテルだ。Anbangの会長 Wu Xiaohuiはこの年の遅く禁固１８年の有罪判決を受けた、職権乱用の罪だ。有罪判決を受けた法定で彼は後悔の念を示した、同時に彼は全く法を犯していないとも言った。それ以来彼は公式な主張をしていない。

The question now is whether bank investors, having seen first hand for the first time in nearly 30 years, that a Chinese bank can fail (and be taken over by the state), will jog at a leisurely pace, or not so leisurely, to their own local bank and pull out their deposits in a cool, calm and collected manner... or not so cool, calm and collected. If so, the trade with between the US and China will have a clear winner in the very near future.


現在の疑問は、銀行投資家はこの３０年で初めて銀行倒産を目の当たりにし（そして国有化された）それでも彼らは鷹揚に構えているだろうか、それともそれほど落ち着いていられず、自ら利用する銀行に駆けつけ預金を引き出すだろうか、落ち着いて礼儀正しく・・・それとも穏やかに礼儀などかまっていられないだろうか。もしそうなってしまうなら、米中貿易係争の勝者はどちらかがすぐに分かるだろう。