In
at least one important way, President Trump's decision to browbeat the
Fed into pausing its program of interest-rate hikes is paying off bigly
for America's most vulnerable corporate borrowers.
The Fed's decision to 'pause' interest rate hikes comes as nearly
one-third of the entire $1.2 trillion US high-yield market is slated for
maturity over the next four years. That's a record proportion,
according to a team of strategists at Barclays led by Bradley Rogoff,
and compares with a post-2000 average of just 20%. And after the
historic market 'freeze' late last year where not a single high-yield
bond was issued, corporate America has apparently got the message: Now
is the time to strike while the iron is hot. The more speculative-grade the rating, the more important it is for companies to act now to refinance that debt. $1.2Tにもなる米国高金利債権の1/3が今後4年で満期を迎えようとするなかで、FEDが金利引き上げを「中断」することを決めた。Bradley RogoffをリーダーとするBarclaysのストラテジストによると、この割合はとても大きなもので、比較として示すと、2000以降での平均満期割合はわずか20%にすぎなかった。そして昨年遅くに歴史的なこの市場の「凍結」が生じ、まったく高金利債権は発行されなかった、米国全体が明らかにこういうメッセージを発している:今こそ、鉄は熱いうちに打て、ということだ。周囲で投機的企業格付が増えるほどに、多くの企業にとってはいまいそいで債務の借り換えをすることがさらに大切になる。
Though many companies have years to plan on refinancing (almost none
will pay off their debt tabs entirely), many are choosing to refinance
now, while rates are low, and demand for higher-yielding debt is high.
Junk bonds tanked last week as markets shunned risky assets, but this
didn't dampen buyers' appetite: Last week was the biggest week for
issuance in nearly two years, with junk issuers selling $12 billion. So
far this year, more than $80 billion of bonds that listed refinancing in
the prospectus have been issued. That has accounted for more than 70%
of the issuance so far this year, according to Bloomberg.
And while credit analysts at some of the bigger fund managers insist
that this is 'healthy', they seem to have neglected the fact that the
president has effectively given corporations a green light to continue
on their debt binge by effectively putting off their day of reckoning
until the Democrats take back control of the White House.
"Companies are extending maturities out, and that’s healthy," said
Scott Roberts, head of high-yield debt at Invesco Ltd. Refinancing is a
better use of debt than buying back shares, he added. "I’ve seen frothy
before and this is not it."
"I feel good about this high-yield market and we are trying to push issuers to take advantage of it,"
said Richard Zogheb, global head of debt capital markets at Citigroup
Inc. "Investors are so excited now that the underlying rate environment
is more dovish, and that’s really good news for high-yield borrowers."
Companies that backed out of their issuance plans late last year
during the sudden market drought are beginning to realize that 'market
conditions' probably aren't going to get much better than they are now.
"We had half a dozen companies that were planning to go as early as
nine or 10 months ago, then the market started weakening and we never
got to the point where we could do those deals," said John Gregory, head
of leveraged-finance syndicate at Wells Fargo & Co., referring to
when junk bond prices fell late last year. "Now we’re finally getting to that point."
What's more, floating-rate leveraged loans have become less
attractive thanks to the Fed's capitulation, creating something of a
perfect storm for the junk-bond market, which is great for heavily
indebted companies hoping to lock in the lowest possible interest rate. 更に言うと、変動金利レバレッジドローンはそれほど魅力的にならなくなった、FEDが罠に陥ったためだ、これがジャンクボンド市場に何らかの嵐を引き起こしつつある、債務過多の企業にとって最低金利を得ることを期待している。
"I can’t remember when $5 billion worth of deals came in one day," said Matt Eagan, a portfolio manager at Loomis Sayles & Co.
"The market is generally wide open for issuers," said Jenny Lee,
co-head of leveraged loan and high-yield capital markets at JPMorgan
Chase & Co. "We’re advising issuer clients to look harder at doing
high-yield bonds."
Even if borrowers truly can't afford it, the longer they can delay
their day of reckoning, the greater the chance that the Fed takes care
of their obligations for them when the central bank inevitably pivots to
buying corporate debt - as former Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen recently
suggested - during QE4.
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう この長文記事をRay Dalioが発表し、ゴールドは$1400から$1420へと急騰しました。GLD保持高に変化はないのでたぶん先物ポジションが進んでいます。 Ray Dalio Warns A "New Paradigm" Is Coming: "Buy Gold, Sell Stocks" by Tyler Durden Wed, 07/17/2019 - 14:44 Authored by Ray Dalio via LinkedIn, One of my investment principles is: 私の投資原則はこういうものだ: Identify the paradigm you’re in, examine if and how it is unsustainable, and visualize how the paradigm shift will transpire when that which is unsustainable stops. 現在のパラダイムを認識し、それがどの程度持続可能かどうか判断する、そしてパラダイムシフトがどのように起きるか、そしてその着地点を思い描く。 Over my roughly 50 years of being a global macro investor, I have observed there to be relatively long of periods (about 10 years) in which the markets and market relationships operate in a certain way (which I call “paradig...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ2週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
How Are Gold And Money Supply Related? by Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2020 - 13:00 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, M2 Money Supply is surging. Will gold follow? M2マネーサプライが急増している。ゴールドはこれを追従するだろうか? Let's investigate an alleged relationship between gold and M2, a measure of money supply in the US. よく言われるM2(米国のマネーサプライ指標)とゴールドの関係について調べてみよう。 "There’s a clear correlation between the annual growth rate in M2 money supply and the price of the yellow metal. " 「M2の年率増加速度とゴールド価格の間には明らかな相関がある。」 Clear Correlation? 明らかな相関? The Tweet claims something different than my lead chart depicts. So let's investigate the above idea in other time frames. このツイートの主張は私が示す最初のチャートが示すものとは異なる。というわけでこのtweetの主張を別の時間フレームで見てみよう。 Gold vs Rate of Change in M2 Money Supply ゴールド vs M2マネーサプライの変化率 If we look at longer time frames, the rate of increase in M2 theory falls flat on its face....