In
at least one important way, President Trump's decision to browbeat the
Fed into pausing its program of interest-rate hikes is paying off bigly
for America's most vulnerable corporate borrowers.
The Fed's decision to 'pause' interest rate hikes comes as nearly
one-third of the entire $1.2 trillion US high-yield market is slated for
maturity over the next four years. That's a record proportion,
according to a team of strategists at Barclays led by Bradley Rogoff,
and compares with a post-2000 average of just 20%. And after the
historic market 'freeze' late last year where not a single high-yield
bond was issued, corporate America has apparently got the message: Now
is the time to strike while the iron is hot. The more speculative-grade the rating, the more important it is for companies to act now to refinance that debt. $1.2Tにもなる米国高金利債権の1/3が今後4年で満期を迎えようとするなかで、FEDが金利引き上げを「中断」することを決めた。Bradley RogoffをリーダーとするBarclaysのストラテジストによると、この割合はとても大きなもので、比較として示すと、2000以降での平均満期割合はわずか20%にすぎなかった。そして昨年遅くに歴史的なこの市場の「凍結」が生じ、まったく高金利債権は発行されなかった、米国全体が明らかにこういうメッセージを発している:今こそ、鉄は熱いうちに打て、ということだ。周囲で投機的企業格付が増えるほどに、多くの企業にとってはいまいそいで債務の借り換えをすることがさらに大切になる。
Though many companies have years to plan on refinancing (almost none
will pay off their debt tabs entirely), many are choosing to refinance
now, while rates are low, and demand for higher-yielding debt is high.
Junk bonds tanked last week as markets shunned risky assets, but this
didn't dampen buyers' appetite: Last week was the biggest week for
issuance in nearly two years, with junk issuers selling $12 billion. So
far this year, more than $80 billion of bonds that listed refinancing in
the prospectus have been issued. That has accounted for more than 70%
of the issuance so far this year, according to Bloomberg.
And while credit analysts at some of the bigger fund managers insist
that this is 'healthy', they seem to have neglected the fact that the
president has effectively given corporations a green light to continue
on their debt binge by effectively putting off their day of reckoning
until the Democrats take back control of the White House.
"Companies are extending maturities out, and that’s healthy," said
Scott Roberts, head of high-yield debt at Invesco Ltd. Refinancing is a
better use of debt than buying back shares, he added. "I’ve seen frothy
before and this is not it."
"I feel good about this high-yield market and we are trying to push issuers to take advantage of it,"
said Richard Zogheb, global head of debt capital markets at Citigroup
Inc. "Investors are so excited now that the underlying rate environment
is more dovish, and that’s really good news for high-yield borrowers."
Companies that backed out of their issuance plans late last year
during the sudden market drought are beginning to realize that 'market
conditions' probably aren't going to get much better than they are now.
"We had half a dozen companies that were planning to go as early as
nine or 10 months ago, then the market started weakening and we never
got to the point where we could do those deals," said John Gregory, head
of leveraged-finance syndicate at Wells Fargo & Co., referring to
when junk bond prices fell late last year. "Now we’re finally getting to that point."
What's more, floating-rate leveraged loans have become less
attractive thanks to the Fed's capitulation, creating something of a
perfect storm for the junk-bond market, which is great for heavily
indebted companies hoping to lock in the lowest possible interest rate. 更に言うと、変動金利レバレッジドローンはそれほど魅力的にならなくなった、FEDが罠に陥ったためだ、これがジャンクボンド市場に何らかの嵐を引き起こしつつある、債務過多の企業にとって最低金利を得ることを期待している。
"I can’t remember when $5 billion worth of deals came in one day," said Matt Eagan, a portfolio manager at Loomis Sayles & Co.
"The market is generally wide open for issuers," said Jenny Lee,
co-head of leveraged loan and high-yield capital markets at JPMorgan
Chase & Co. "We’re advising issuer clients to look harder at doing
high-yield bonds."
Even if borrowers truly can't afford it, the longer they can delay
their day of reckoning, the greater the chance that the Fed takes care
of their obligations for them when the central bank inevitably pivots to
buying corporate debt - as former Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen recently
suggested - during QE4.
多量のオピオイドを米国に送り込み、米国で深刻な麻薬中毒問題を引き起こしています。現代版「阿片戦争」です。あのトヨタ初の女性取締役もオピオイド中毒で逮捕解任されましたよね。 US Is Dependent On China For Almost 80% Of Its Medicine by Tyler Durden Fri, 05/31/2019 - 12:55 Experts are warning that the U.S. has become way too reliant on China for all our medicine , our pain killers, antibiotics, vitamins, aspirin and many cancer treatment medicine. 専門家はこう警告する、米国はすべての医薬品、痛み止め、抗生物質、ビタミン、アスピリン、各種抗がん剤で、中国依存度が高すぎる。 Fox Business reports that according to FDA estimates at least 80 percent of active ingredients found in all of America’s medicine come from abroad, primarily from China . And it’s not just the ingredients, China wants to become the world’s dominant generic drug maker. So far Chinese companies are making generic for everything from high blood pressure to chemotherapy drugs. 90 percent of America’s prescriptions a...
日本と同じくPOMOになる公算が大きいとは思いますが、どうでしょうね。 米国大統領選挙の勝者と11月投票日前数ヶ月の株価の動向には9割以上の相関があります。はっきり言えば、公約とか主義主張には無関係です :) 。この時期株価を維持・上昇すると現職政党勝利、株価が下落すると挑戦政党勝利となります。熱心な民主党員活動家である前FED議長イエレンは頻繁に口先介入をしましたが、量的緩和再開まで踏み込めず、4年前の秋に株価が下落し、トランプ勝利となりました。株価と大統領選挙の相関をトランプは熟知しています、4年前には株価が下落するようしきりと口先介入していました。今年は11月まで株価を維持できるかどうか?どうでしょう。 Mark Your Calendar: Next Week The Fed's Liquidity Drain Begins by Tyler Durden Fri, 01/03/2020 - 14:54 What goes up, must come down, at least in theory. 上昇があれば、その後に下落が伴う、少なくとも理論上ではそうだ。 Ever since the start of October when the Fed launched QE4 - or as some still call it "Not QE" - in response to the Sept repo crisis, figuring out the market has been pretty simple: if the Fed's balance sheet goes up so does the S&P500, and vice versa. 10月にFEDがQE4を始めて以来ーー「Not QE」という人もいるがーー9月のレポ危機に対応したものだが、相場はとても単純になった:FEDがバランス...
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