Authored by Jesse Colombo via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Market volatility has reared its ugly head once again in
recent weeks as the trade war with China took a turn for the worse and
global economic data continues to weaken. On Thursday, the Dow
lost 286.14 points, or 1.1%, the S&P 500 fell 34.03 points, or 1.2%,
and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 122.56 points, or 1.6%. From a
technical perspective, the S&P 500 is sitting just above a key
support level at 2,800. The S&P 500 has bumped its head or bounced
off of this levels quite a few times since early-2018. If the S&P
500 closes below 2,800 in a decisive manner, it would increase the
likelihood of further downside.
ここ数週で再び市場は醜い head パターンとなった、中国との貿易戦争が悪化しまた世界経済データが弱いからだ。火曜にDJIは1.1%相当の286.14ポイント下落し、S&P500は1.2%相当の34.03ポイント下落した、そしてNasdaq Compositeは1.6%相当の122.56ポイント下落だった。チャートテクニカルから見るとS&P500は2,800の重要なサポートレベルの少し上にいる。S&P500は2018年はじめ以来このレベルからの頭出しを何回か繰り返した。もしS&P500が終値で2,800を確実に下回るなら、さらなる下落が起きる可能性が高い。
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is sitting just above its 25,250
support level that it has bounced off of in recent months. If the Dow
closes below this level in a convincing manner, it may foreshadow even
more downside action.
The tech-oriented Nasdaq Composite Index is just above its 7,600
support level that has come into play several times in the past year. If
the Nasdaq closes convincingly below 7,600, further bearish action is
likely.
テック銘柄の多いNasdaq Composite Indexは7,600のサポートの少し上だ、ここ数年で何度かこのレベルになった。もしNasdaq が終値で確実に7,600を下回るならさらなるベア傾向となるだろう。
The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index closed just above its 1,500 support
level. If it closes below this level, further weakness is likely.
Russell 2000小型株指数は1,500のサポートの少し上だ。もし終値でこのレベルを下回るなら、さらなる下落となるだろう。
After the U.S. stock market’s 300% gain in the past decade (which is an unsustainable bubble), it is prudent to be aware of the risk of a sharp unwind:
The S&P 500 rose much faster than earnings and is now at
1929-like valuations, which means that a painful correction is
inevitable:
S&P500は収益以上に急速に上昇してきた、今や1929年ほどのバリエーションだ、ということは痛みの伴う調整が不可避だ:
Another indicator that supports the “higher volatility ahead” thesis
is the 10-year/2-year Treasury spread. When this spread is inverted, it
leads the Volatility Index by approximately three years. If this
historic relationship is still valid, we should prepare for much higher
volatility over the next few years. A volatility surge of the magnitude
suggested by the 10-year/2-year Treasury spread would likely be the
result of a recession and a bursting of the massive asset bubble created
by the Fed in the past decade.
For now, I am watching how the major indices act at their key support
levels. If the indices break their supports at the same time that the
trade war worsens even further, we could see another sharp sell-off like
the one in late-2018.
多量のオピオイドを米国に送り込み、米国で深刻な麻薬中毒問題を引き起こしています。現代版「阿片戦争」です。あのトヨタ初の女性取締役もオピオイド中毒で逮捕解任されましたよね。 US Is Dependent On China For Almost 80% Of Its Medicine by Tyler Durden Fri, 05/31/2019 - 12:55 Experts are warning that the U.S. has become way too reliant on China for all our medicine , our pain killers, antibiotics, vitamins, aspirin and many cancer treatment medicine. 専門家はこう警告する、米国はすべての医薬品、痛み止め、抗生物質、ビタミン、アスピリン、各種抗がん剤で、中国依存度が高すぎる。 Fox Business reports that according to FDA estimates at least 80 percent of active ingredients found in all of America’s medicine come from abroad, primarily from China . And it’s not just the ingredients, China wants to become the world’s dominant generic drug maker. So far Chinese companies are making generic for everything from high blood pressure to chemotherapy drugs. 90 percent of America’s prescriptions a...
日本と同じくPOMOになる公算が大きいとは思いますが、どうでしょうね。 米国大統領選挙の勝者と11月投票日前数ヶ月の株価の動向には9割以上の相関があります。はっきり言えば、公約とか主義主張には無関係です :) 。この時期株価を維持・上昇すると現職政党勝利、株価が下落すると挑戦政党勝利となります。熱心な民主党員活動家である前FED議長イエレンは頻繁に口先介入をしましたが、量的緩和再開まで踏み込めず、4年前の秋に株価が下落し、トランプ勝利となりました。株価と大統領選挙の相関をトランプは熟知しています、4年前には株価が下落するようしきりと口先介入していました。今年は11月まで株価を維持できるかどうか?どうでしょう。 Mark Your Calendar: Next Week The Fed's Liquidity Drain Begins by Tyler Durden Fri, 01/03/2020 - 14:54 What goes up, must come down, at least in theory. 上昇があれば、その後に下落が伴う、少なくとも理論上ではそうだ。 Ever since the start of October when the Fed launched QE4 - or as some still call it "Not QE" - in response to the Sept repo crisis, figuring out the market has been pretty simple: if the Fed's balance sheet goes up so does the S&P500, and vice versa. 10月にFEDがQE4を始めて以来ーー「Not QE」という人もいるがーー9月のレポ危機に対応したものだが、相場はとても単純になった:FEDがバランス...
What Could Go Wrong? The Fed's Warns On Corporate Debt by Tyler Durden Thu, 05/09/2019 - 11:44 Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, “So, if the housing market isn’t going to affect the economy, and low interest rates are now a permanent fixture in our society, and there is NO risk in doing anything because we can financially engineer our way out it – then why are all these companies building up departments betting on what could be the biggest crash the world has ever seen? What is more evident is what isn’t being said. Banks aren’t saying “we are gearing up just in case something bad happens.” Quite the contrary – they are gearing up for WHEN it happens. When the turn does come, it will be unlike anything we have ever seen before. The scale of it could be considerable because of the size of some...
先週の記事です。最後の2段落だけ訳をいれておきます。 Gold’s Peculiar Surge Adam Hamilton February 21, 2020 3246 Words Gold is enjoying an awesome week, surging back above $1600 for the first time in nearly 7 years! That big round psychologically-heavy level is really catching traders’ attention, great improving sentiment. Yet this recent gold surge has proven peculiar. Unlike normal rallies, the buying driving this one largely hasn’t come from gold’s usual primary drivers. The stealth buying behind this surge may impair its staying power. This Tuesday gold surged 1.2% higher to close near $1602. It hadn’t crested $1600 on close since way back in late March 2013 fully 6.9 years ago! Long-time gold traders shudder at the dark spring which followed. Within less than several weeks after that last $1600+ close, gold plummeted 16.2%. Most of that came in ...