Authored by Jesse Colombo via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Market volatility has reared its ugly head once again in
recent weeks as the trade war with China took a turn for the worse and
global economic data continues to weaken. On Thursday, the Dow
lost 286.14 points, or 1.1%, the S&P 500 fell 34.03 points, or 1.2%,
and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 122.56 points, or 1.6%. From a
technical perspective, the S&P 500 is sitting just above a key
support level at 2,800. The S&P 500 has bumped its head or bounced
off of this levels quite a few times since early-2018. If the S&P
500 closes below 2,800 in a decisive manner, it would increase the
likelihood of further downside.
ここ数週で再び市場は醜い head パターンとなった、中国との貿易戦争が悪化しまた世界経済データが弱いからだ。火曜にDJIは１．１％相当の２８６．１４ポイント下落し、S&P500は１．２％相当の３４．０３ポイント下落した、そしてNasdaq Compositeは１．６％相当の１２２．５６ポイント下落だった。チャートテクニカルから見るとS&P500は２，８００の重要なサポートレベルの少し上にいる。S&P500は２０１８年はじめ以来このレベルからの頭出しを何回か繰り返した。もしS&P500が終値で２，８００を確実に下回るなら、さらなる下落が起きる可能性が高い。
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is sitting just above its 25,250
support level that it has bounced off of in recent months. If the Dow
closes below this level in a convincing manner, it may foreshadow even
more downside action.
The tech-oriented Nasdaq Composite Index is just above its 7,600
support level that has come into play several times in the past year. If
the Nasdaq closes convincingly below 7,600, further bearish action is
likely.
テック銘柄の多いNasdaq Composite Indexは７，６００のサポートの少し上だ、ここ数年で何度かこのレベルになった。もしNasdaq が終値で確実に７，６００を下回るならさらなるベア傾向となるだろう。
The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index closed just above its 1,500 support
level. If it closes below this level, further weakness is likely.
Russell 2000小型株指数は１，５００のサポートの少し上だ。もし終値でこのレベルを下回るなら、さらなる下落となるだろう。
After the U.S. stock market’s 300% gain in the past decade (which is an unsustainable bubble), it is prudent to be aware of the risk of a sharp unwind:
The S&P 500 rose much faster than earnings and is now at
1929-like valuations, which means that a painful correction is
inevitable:
S&P500は収益以上に急速に上昇してきた、今や１９２９年ほどのバリエーションだ、ということは痛みの伴う調整が不可避だ：
Another indicator that supports the “higher volatility ahead” thesis
is the 10-year/2-year Treasury spread. When this spread is inverted, it
leads the Volatility Index by approximately three years. If this
historic relationship is still valid, we should prepare for much higher
volatility over the next few years. A volatility surge of the magnitude
suggested by the 10-year/2-year Treasury spread would likely be the
result of a recession and a bursting of the massive asset bubble created
by the Fed in the past decade.
For now, I am watching how the major indices act at their key support
levels. If the indices break their supports at the same time that the
trade war worsens even further, we could see another sharp sell-off like
the one in late-2018.
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれました。 Big Silver-Stock Potential Adam Hamilton February 7, 2020 2689 Words The silver miners’ stocks are looking interesting. While they really lagged silver’s surge on gold’s bull-market-breakout rally last summer, their upleg since remains intact. Gold stocks’ own upleg peaked in early September. And silver itself remains wildly undervalued relative to gold, overdue to mean revert dramatically higher. When that happens during gold’s next upleg, the silver stocks have big potential to soar. Like the global silver market is vastly smaller than gold’s, silver stocks are a proportionally-little fraction of the precious-metals miners. As a small subset of a usually-ignored contrarian sector, the silver stocks often languish in obscurity. For decades there wasn’t even a silver-stock index, making sector analysis difficult. ...
最後の二段落だけ訳をいれましょう。 Gold-Stock Head Fake? Adam Hamilton January 3, 2020 3174 Words Gold miners’ stocks blasted higher this past week, breaking out of their correction downtrend. Rapidly-improving psychology fueled such strong upside momentum that sector benchmarks are challenging months-old upleg highs. Most traders assume this is righteous, that gold stocks’ next upleg is starting to accelerate. But key indicators argue the contrarian side, that this breakout surge is a head fake within a correction. In early September, a major gold-stock upleg peaked after soaring higher on gold’s decisive bull-market breakout in late June. The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF, this sector’s leading benchmark and trading vehicle, had powered 76.2% higher over 11.8 months. It crested the same day gold’s own upleg did, hitting $30.95 on close. That ma...
最後の２段落だけ訳を入れておきます。 Silver Miners’ Q3’19 Fundamentals Adam Hamilton November 29, 2019 3726 Words The silver miners are finally enjoying higher prevailing silver prices, a great boon for this sector. Silver surged this past summer after gold’s first new bull-market highs in several years rekindled enthusiasm for precious metals. The long-neglected silver stocks rallied strongly with their metal. Their recently-reported Q3’19 results reveal whether those gains are justified, and how much fundamentals improved on higher silver. Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding pr...
Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q4’19 Fundamentals Adam Hamilton March 20, 2020 3250 Words The mid-tier gold miners’ stocks have been annihilated with COVID-19 fears infecting traders’ sentiment. They crashed with gold getting hammered on extreme gold-futures selling! With blood in the streets, the buy-low opportunities are phenomenal. The fundamentally-superior mid-tier gold miners have epic upside potential during gold’s next upleg. This key sector just reported outstanding Q4’19 results on higher gold. The sheer carnage in gold-stock-land has been jaw-dropping! In late February, the gold-stock sector per its leading benchmark GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF edged up to a 3.5-year high slightly above early September’s. That was fueled by gold’s $1600 breakout surge on COVID-19 fears. Yet as I warned in an essay the trading day before GDX’s pe...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
