Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,
M2 Money Supply is surging. Will gold follow? M2マネーサプライが急増している。ゴールドはこれを追従するだろうか？
Let's investigate an alleged relationship between gold and M2, a measure of money supply in the US.
よく言われるM2（米国のマネーサプライ指標）とゴールドの関係について調べてみよう。
"There’s a clear correlation between the annual growth rate in M2 money supply and the price of the yellow metal. "
「M2の年率増加速度とゴールド価格の間には明らかな相関がある。」
Clear Correlation? 明らかな相関？
The Tweet claims something different than my lead chart depicts. So let's investigate the above idea in other time frames.
If we look at longer time frames, the rate of increase in M2 theory falls flat on its face.
もっと長期間を見ると、M2増加率理論は意味を成さないことが解る。
One can force a correlation starting in 2010 but that is purposeful
cherry-picking a timeframe. and even then, the time period in the box is
counter-trend.
Similarly, one can find times when gold is correlated to the dollar,
the Yen, and most likely the popularity of peanuts at Cub games in some
time frame.
The best correlation I can find to the price of gold is faith in
central banks. Gold collapsed from $850 to $250 under Greenspan's "Great
Moderation". Greenspan was viewed as the "Maestro" until the dot-com
bubble collapsed.
Gold went on a tear during the housing bubble, but put in a top when ECB president Mario Draghi gave his famous speech: "We will do whatever it takes to save the Euro, and believe me it will be enough."
Draghi did nothing. His speech was enough. Bond yields on Greek,
Portuguese, and Italian bonds started collapsing right after that
speech. It was not until years later the ECB resorted to negative
interest rates and QE.
Gold started rising again when the ECB went nuts with QE and the Fed
started talking about "normalization"that anyone in their right mind
knew was not coming.
The BIS did a historical study and found routine price deflation was not any problem at all.
BISは長年物価デフレを研究してきた、そこに何ら問題はないという。
"Deflation may actually boost output. Lower prices increase real
incomes and wealth. And they may also make export goods more competitive,” stated the study.
It’s asset bubble deflation that is damaging. When asset bubbles burst, debt deflation results.
資産バブルデフレは損失を生み出す。資産バブルが破裂すると、債務デフレが生み出される。
Central banks’ seriously misguided attempts to defeat routine
consumer price deflation is what fuels the destructive build up of
unproductive debt and asset bubbles that eventually collapse.
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう この長文記事をRay Dalioが発表し、ゴールドは＄１４００から＄１４２０へと急騰しました。GLD保持高に変化はないのでたぶん先物ポジションが進んでいます。 Ray Dalio Warns A "New Paradigm" Is Coming: "Buy Gold, Sell Stocks" by Tyler Durden Wed, 07/17/2019 - 14:44 Authored by Ray Dalio via LinkedIn, One of my investment principles is: 私の投資原則はこういうものだ： Identify the paradigm you’re in, examine if and how it is unsustainable, and visualize how the paradigm shift will transpire when that which is unsustainable stops. 現在のパラダイムを認識し、それがどの程度持続可能かどうか判断する、そしてパラダイムシフトがどのように起きるか、そしてその着地点を思い描く。 Over my roughly 50 years of being a global macro investor, I have observed there to be relatively long of periods (about 10 years) in which the markets and market relationships operate in a certain way (which I call “paradig...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
