GDPはフェイント
Head Fake on GDP
Real GDP surged 3.2% in the first quarter of 2019. Over half of those
gains can be attributed to a surge in inventories and a narrowing in the
trade deficit. Exports picked up slightly while imports plunged.
Consumer spending and business investment slowed to crawl. The pace of
consumer spending was half that of the previous quarter. Residential
investment was a drag on growth for a fifth consecutive quarter.
Investment in new structures, which includes commercial real estate,
contracted for the third quarter in a row.
Diane Swonk２０１９Q1実GDPは３．２％増加と急騰した。この増加の内半分以上は在庫と貿易赤字低減によるものだ。輸出増加はほんの少しだが輸入が急落した。消費支出とビジネス投資は鈍化している。消費支出は前四半期の半分だ。住宅関連投資は５四半期連続で成長鈍化している。商業不動産を含む新規投資は引き続き３四半期連続縮小している。
Separately, federal government spending flatlined in response to the prolonged government shutdown. A rise in defense spending was offset by a fall in nondefense spending. State and local government spending rebounded after contracting in the fourth quarter.
これとは別に、連邦政府支出は政府閉鎖もあり低迷している。防衛費用支出増加は他の支出減で相殺されている。州政府支出は４四半期連続縮小後反転した。
The details revealed a few silver linings. Exports picked up modestly but remain well below the pace of last year. Investment in intellectual property (mostly AI and automation) was the only real positive in business investment. Those gains, however, were more reflective of changes in the tax laws and how technology companies book their investment in intellectual property than an actual increase in investment.
The details revealed a few silver linings. Exports picked up modestly but remain well below the pace of last year. Investment in intellectual property (mostly AI and automation) was the only real positive in business investment. Those gains, however, were more reflective of changes in the tax laws and how technology companies book their investment in intellectual property than an actual increase in investment.
GDP増加の詳細を見ると明確なことがいくつかある。輸出は緩やかに回復しているがまだ昨年のペースをかなり下回る。知的財産投資（AIや自動化）がビジネス投資の中で唯一のプラス要因だった。しかしながらこの増加も税制変更を反映したもので、テックカンパニーの帳簿で実際の投資よりも知的財産投資を増やしている。
Prices decelerated sharply, which helped to boost inflation-adjusted growth. This is not exactly what the Federal Reserve was hoping for at this late phase of the expansion. It bodes poorly for profit margins, which are expected to be squeezed by everything from higher wages and tariffs to a stronger dollar, which makes imports even cheaper.
Prices decelerated sharply, which helped to boost inflation-adjusted growth. This is not exactly what the Federal Reserve was hoping for at this late phase of the expansion. It bodes poorly for profit margins, which are expected to be squeezed by everything from higher wages and tariffs to a stronger dollar, which makes imports even cheaper.
物価上昇は急激に鈍化しており、これがインフレ調整後成長を増大させている。景気拡大終盤で、FEDが期待するようなものではまったくない。利益率鈍化を予兆させる、この傾向に関しては多方面から同様の圧力がかかっている、給与増や強いドル効果だ、輸入品が安くなる。
Prospects for growth in the second quarter now look much worse because bloated inventories must be depleted. The hope is that consumers bounce back to do some heavy lifting. The fly in the ointment is rising prices at the gas pump, which could erode some of the gains we are finally seeing in wages at the low end of the wage scale.
Q2の成長見通しは今のところもっと悪いものだ、というのも膨れ上がった在庫解消が必要だからだ。期待されるのは個人消費が大きく回復することだ。予定を台無しにしそうなのはガソリン価格上昇だ、収入が低い階層にとっては給与増を相殺してしまうだろう。
Prospects for growth in the second quarter now look much worse because bloated inventories must be depleted. The hope is that consumers bounce back to do some heavy lifting. The fly in the ointment is rising prices at the gas pump, which could erode some of the gains we are finally seeing in wages at the low end of the wage scale.
Q2の成長見通しは今のところもっと悪いものだ、というのも膨れ上がった在庫解消が必要だからだ。期待されるのは個人消費が大きく回復することだ。予定を台無しにしそうなのはガソリン価格上昇だ、収入が低い階層にとっては給与増を相殺してしまうだろう。
Bottom Line 要約
This is one of the weakest 3% growth quarters I have ever seen. Underlying momentum in the domestic economy was particularly weak. Now we have to deplete inventories that have been built up for the better part of a year. Our forecast holds for a slowdown in 2019.
今回のGDP成長３％というのは、私がこれまで見てきた中でもっとも弱い成長だ。国内経済のモメンタムは特に弱い。今や我々は積み上がった在庫を消化しなければならない、この積み上げが今年の大半だと言うのに。私どもの見立ては２０１９年減速のままだ。
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Karen Nye
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Na Tasha Lowe
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Karen Nye
T +1 312 602 8973
Karen.Nye@us.gt.com
Other Inquiries
Na Tasha Lowe
T +1 312 754 7368
NaTasha.Lowe@us.gt.com
