Initial jobless claims keep grinding lower and lower.
新規失業保険申請はどんどん少なくなる。
The last time this few Americans sought the help of government after
losing a job was in November 1969. Initial Jobless Claims tumbled
another 5K from the prior week's revised 197K to just 192K: the second consecutive sub-200K print in 50 years, and the lowest print since September 1969. 米国人が失業時に政府の助けをここまで求めなかったのは１９６９年１１月以来のことだ。新規失業保険申請は前週比で５K減り、わずか１９２Kとなった：二週連続で２００Kを切ったのは５０年ぶりのことだ、そして１９６９年９月以来の少なさだ。
The YTD change in the absolute number of claims is now the best in at least the past decade.
YTDで絶対値変化を見るとここ１０年で最良のものだ。
While the number will probably not come as a big surprise in light of the recent sharp rebound in payrolls, the
Fed will be hard pressed to explain why it is pausing its rate hikes at
a time when the fewest number of Americans are filing for jobless
benefits in half a century. この良い数値は最近の雇用統計の急改善によるものではないだろうと思われ、半世紀ぶりに新規失業保険申請が少ない中でFEDはどうして金利引き上げを中断するのかと詰問されるだろう。
For some context, the last time claims were this low:
前回ここまで新規失業保険申請が少なかった当時を振り返すとこういう時代だった：
The Beatles' "Abbey Road" Album hit #1
ビートルズの「アビィロード」が全米チットチャート１位となった
Wendy's Hamburgers, American fast food restaurant chains founded by Dave Thomas opens in Columbus, Ohio
Dave Thomasが創業したWendy's Mambergersチェーンが一号店をオハイオ週コロンバスで開店した。
Alcatraz Island off SF, is seized by militant Native Americans
サンフランシスコのAlcatraz Islandが武装ネイティブアメリカンに占拠された
US performs nuclear test at Nevada Test Site
米国政府がネバダ州で核実験を行った
USSR performs nuclear test at Eastern Kazakh/Semipalitinsk USSR
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれました。 Big Silver-Stock Potential Adam Hamilton February 7, 2020 2689 Words The silver miners’ stocks are looking interesting. While they really lagged silver’s surge on gold’s bull-market-breakout rally last summer, their upleg since remains intact. Gold stocks’ own upleg peaked in early September. And silver itself remains wildly undervalued relative to gold, overdue to mean revert dramatically higher. When that happens during gold’s next upleg, the silver stocks have big potential to soar. Like the global silver market is vastly smaller than gold’s, silver stocks are a proportionally-little fraction of the precious-metals miners. As a small subset of a usually-ignored contrarian sector, the silver stocks often languish in obscurity. For decades there wasn’t even a silver-stock index, making sector analysis difficult. ...
最後の２段落だけ訳を入れておきます。 Gold-Stock Bull Breakout! Adam Hamilton April 24, 2020 2845 Words The gold miners’ stocks surged to a major bull-market breakout this week! Powering decisively above their years-old secular resistance is a hugely-important technical event. It proves this gold-stock bull is alive and well, greatly improves sentiment, and puts this high-flying sector on countless more traders’ radars. New bull highs fuel self-feeding bullish psychology, as speculators and investors love chasing winners. The gold miners’ stocks are essentially leveraged plays on gold, since its price overwhelmingly drives their earnings and thus ultimately stock prices. So gold-stock bulls and bears mirror and amplify gold’s own major market cycles. Today’s secular gold bull began marching in mid-December 2015, birthed from choking despair. Gold stocks’ ...
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれておきます。 Gold Stocks Remain Cheap Adam Hamilton December 20, 2019 2800 Words The gold miners’ stocks have suffered a lackluster few months. That’s a disheartening contrast to their powerful summer upleg on gold’s bull-market breakout. While this healthy gold-stock correction likely isn’t over yet, the gold miners remain very undervalued relative to the metal they produce. That means they still have massive upside left in this secular gold bull. Sentiment just needs rebalancing before its next upleg. In recent months I’ve written a lot about gold’s correction, which is naturally driving a parallel one in the gold miners’ stocks. I’ve explained why speculators’ positioning in gold futures, gold’s dominant primary short-term driver, remains bearish with potential selling vastly outweighing likely buying. I’ve shown how shallow ...
大切な数段落だけ訳しておきます。 Silver Miners’ Q4’18 Fundamentals Adam Hamilton March 29, 2019 4073 Words The major silver miners have rallied higher on balance in recent months, enjoying a young upleg. That’s a welcome change after they suffered a miserable 2018. Times are tough for silver miners, since silver’s prices have languished near extreme lows relative to gold. That has forced many traditional silver miners to increasingly diversify into gold. The major silver miners’ recently-released Q4’18 results illuminate their struggles. Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surr...
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれておきました。 Fed’s Risky QE4 Stock Ramp Adam Hamilton January 31, 2020 3567 Words The US stock markets dramatically surged mostly in a straight line since mid-October. This extraordinary rally started when the Federal Reserve announced it would resume expanding its balance sheet for the first time in years. The deluge of new liquidity from that quantitative-easing bond buying has again acted like rocket fuel for stock markets. After shooting vertically they are in real trouble when the Fed pulls back. In early October the flagship US S&P 500 stock index (SPX) slumped to 2888. That was a mild 4.6% pullback from late July’s latest record high. The SPX was still having a great year though, up 15.2% year-to-date at that point thanks to extreme Fed easing . After the SPX had plunged 19.8% mostly in Q4’18 in a severe near-bear cor...
