最新NewYorkFED　景気後退予想

「この記事が面白いと思うなら、Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう」

 米国債の金利差から一年後の景気後退入り可能性を推測したもの。
１９７０年代８０年代はFFRが１０％を超えていたために数値がとても大きくなっている。
https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf

人気記事

銀鉱株の潜在力は大きい by Zeal

イメージ
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれました。 Big Silver-Stock Potential Adam Hamilton     February 7, 2020     2689 Words The silver miners’ stocks are looking interesting.  While they really lagged silver’s surge on gold’s bull-market-breakout rally last summer, their upleg since remains intact.  Gold stocks’ own upleg peaked in early September.  And silver itself remains wildly undervalued relative to gold, overdue to mean revert dramatically higher.  When that happens during gold’s next upleg, the silver stocks have big potential to soar. Like the global silver market is vastly smaller than gold’s, silver stocks are a proportionally-little fraction of the precious-metals miners.  As a small subset of a usually-ignored contrarian sector, the silver stocks often languish in obscurity.  For decades there wasn’t even a silver-stock index, making sector analysis difficult.  ...
続きを読む

金鉱株の値動きは騙し？ by Zeal

イメージ
最後の二段落だけ訳をいれましょう。 Gold-Stock Head Fake? Adam Hamilton     January 3, 2020     3174 Words Gold miners’ stocks blasted higher this past week, breaking out of their correction downtrend.  Rapidly-improving psychology fueled such strong upside momentum that sector benchmarks are challenging months-old upleg highs.  Most traders assume this is righteous, that gold stocks’ next upleg is starting to accelerate.  But key indicators argue the contrarian side, that this breakout surge is a head fake within a correction. In early September, a major gold-stock upleg peaked after soaring higher on gold’s decisive bull-market breakout in late June.  The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF, this sector’s leading benchmark and trading vehicle, had powered 76.2% higher over 11.8 months.  It crested the same day gold’s own upleg did, hitting $30.95 on close.  That ma...
続きを読む

銀鉱株2019Q3ファンダメンタルズ by Zeal

イメージ
最後の２段落だけ訳を入れておきます。 Silver Miners’ Q3’19 Fundamentals Adam Hamilton     November 29, 2019     3726 Words The silver miners are finally enjoying higher prevailing silver prices, a great boon for this sector.  Silver surged this past summer after gold’s first new bull-market highs in several years rekindled enthusiasm for precious metals.  The long-neglected silver stocks rallied strongly with their metal.  Their recently-reported Q3’19 results reveal whether those gains are justified, and how much fundamentals improved on higher silver. Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders.  They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding pr...
続きを読む

シルバーはゴールドを凌ぐ　２　by Zeal

イメージ
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton     July 26, 2019     3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold.  This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years.  This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside.  Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying.  Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 　 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians.  Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
続きを読む

銀鉱株２０１８Q4ファンダメンタルズ by Zeal

イメージ
大切な数段落だけ訳しておきます。 Silver Miners’ Q4’18 Fundamentals Adam Hamilton     March 29, 2019     4073 Words The major silver miners have rallied higher on balance in recent months, enjoying a young upleg.  That’s a welcome change after they suffered a miserable 2018.  Times are tough for silver miners, since silver’s prices have languished near extreme lows relative to gold.  That has forced many traditional silver miners to increasingly diversify into gold.  The major silver miners’ recently-released Q4’18 results illuminate their struggles. Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders.  They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surr...
続きを読む