最新NewYorkFED　景気後退予想

「この記事が面白いと思うなら、Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう」

 米国債の金利差から一年後の景気後退入り可能性を推測したもの。
１９７０年代８０年代はFFRが１０％を超えていたために数値がとても大きくなっている。
https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf

人気記事

雇用統計が教えるものーー経済は鈍化している

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The Message From The Jobs Report – The Economy Is Slowing Written by Lance Roberts | Apr, 8, 2019 Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published the March monthly “employment report” which showed an increase in employment of 196,000 jobs. As Mike Shedlock noted on Friday: 先週、BLSが３月の月例「雇用統計」を発表した、雇用が１９６，０００増えたという。Mike Shedlockは金曜にこう書いた： “The change in total non-farm payroll employment for January was revised up from +311,000 to +312,000, and the change for February was revised up from +20,000 to +33,000. With these revisions, employment gains in January and February combined were 14,000 more than previously reported. After revisions, job gains have averaged 180,000 per month over the last 3 months. 「１月全非農業雇用は＋３１１，０００から＋３１２，０００に改定された、２月のデータは＋２０，０００から＋３３，０００に改定された。これらの改定で１月と２月を合算した雇用増は以前の報告よりも１４，０００多くなった。改定後でみると、雇用増は直近三ヶ月で平均１８０，０００／月となる。 BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance BLS　雇用統計概観 Nonfarm Payroll : +196,000 – Establishment Survey Emp
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大型米国株２０１９Q1ファンダメンタルズ by Zeal

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Big US Stocks’ Q1’19 Fundamentals Adam Hamilton     May 10, 2019     3653 Words The US stock markets sure feel inflectiony, at a major juncture.  After achieving new all-time record highs, sentiment was euphoric heading into this week.  But those latest heights could be a massive triple top that formed over 15 months.  Then heavy selling erupted in recent days as the US-China trade war suddenly went hostile.  The big US stocks’ just-reported Q1’19 fundamentals will help determine where markets go next. 米国株式市場は転換点を迎えたように感じる、大きな岐路だ。記録的新高値を迎えた後、今週に向けてeuphoricな心理が優勢だった。しかし直近の高値は１５か月をかけた大きなトリプルトップかもしれない。その後ここ数日大きな売りが起きた、米中貿易戦争が急に敵対的になったためだ。大型米国銘柄が開示した２０１９Q1ファンダメンタルズで市場の今後の行方を判断できるだろう。 Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data avail
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地球温暖化論のデタラメを図解

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Global Warming Fraud Exposed In Pictures by Tyler Durden Tue, 10/01/2019 - 12:25 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, Climate change alarmists have convinced the public something must be done now. The reports are easily debunked as fraud ... 気候変動主張者たちは今行動を実行せねばと確信している。その手の報告書はでたらめだということが簡単に解る・・・・ My Gift To Climate Alarmists 気候変動活動家への贈り物 Tony Heller does an amazing job of showing  how  the fraud takes place in his video entitled My Gift To Climate Alarmists. Tony Heller は素晴らしい仕事をした、このビデオを見ると彼らの主張が如何にでたらめかということがよく分かる、そのタイトルは My Gift To Climate Alarmists。 The video is only 12.51 minutes long. このビデオはわずか１２．５１分しかない。（訳注：画像・動画がいっぱいで英語がわからなくても理解できる） Cherry Picking 例を上げると Heatwaves increasing since 1960 熱波発生は１９６０年以降増えているという Arctic ice declining since 1979 北極海氷は１９７９年以来減っているという Wildfires increasing sinc
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収益祭りは終わる：Q1収益成長は急落、この３年で最大の下落

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The Profit Party Is Over: Q1 Earnings Growth Crashes, Set For Biggest Drop In 3 Years by Tyler Durden Sun, 02/03/2019 - 17:00 After last week's earnings deluge, 46% of the companies in the S&P 500 have now reported actual results for Q4 2018. And according to Factset data , so far earnings season is mediocre at best with the percentage of companies reporting EPS above estimates (70%) below the 5-year average. Companies are also reporting earnings that are 3.5% above the estimates, which is also below the 5-year average. The silver lining is that in terms of revenues, the percentage of companies reporting actual revenues above estimates (62%) is above the 5-year average, and on aggregate, companies are reporting revenues that are 0.8% above the estimates, which is also above the 5-year average. 先週は収益開示が最も多く、S&P500構成銘
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中国の流動性不足が差し迫る（どうしてこれまでの限りない刺激策が機能しないか）

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China's Looming Liquidity Shortage (Or Why Endless Stimulus Isn't Working) by Tyler Durden Fri, 03/15/2019 - 21:30 Chinese Premier Li promised yet more stimulus measures overnight from tax cuts to focused rate reductions (but, he admitted, not blanket liquidity provision). But, after over 60 different 'stimulus' measures in the last few months and last night's promises , nothing seems to be working as China's economic data continues to tumble. 中国李克強首相が昨夜さらなる刺激策を約束した、減税や金利引き下げだ（しかし彼も認めるように全面的な流動性注入ではない）。しかしここ数ヶ月６０回にもおよぶ「刺激策」を講じたにもかかわらず、また昨夜の約束にもかかわらず、どれ一つ効果を発することなく中国経済指標は下落を続けている。 As Goldman's Andrew Tilton (Chief Asia Economist) suggested: ゴールドマンサックスのAndrew Tilton（アジアエコノミスト主任）はこう示唆する： " There are reasons to be concerned [that easing is becoming less effective]. Local government officials who typ
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