Preliminary Class 8 order data for September is starting to trickle in and, like the data preceding it so far this year - it's ugly. クラス８トラック発注がことしのこれまでと同様にひどい。 Class 8 orders were crushed 71% in September, reaching 12,600 units, according to Baird and Morgan Stanley. ９月にクラス８トラック発注が７１％下落し、１２，６００台となった、Baird and Morgan Stanleyのデータだ。
This follows a 79% plunge in August.
８月の７９％下落に次ぐ悪さだ。
This makes September the 11th consecutive month of YOY order declines and the 9th consecutive month of orders below 20,000. この９月で１１か月連続でYoY発注が下落している、また９か月連続で２０，０００台を下回った。
Class 8 orders are often seen as a pulse on the U.S. economy. Morgan
Stanley analyst Courtney Yakavonis wrote in a note that she expects YOY
order declines to continue into the year's end. But Baird analyst David
Leiker said he was gaining "increased confidence" that a bottom in
declines was likely near - but that's a story we have heard from ACT Research analysts all year and orders just continue to collapse. クラス８トラックの発注は米国経済の脈動と見られることが多い。モルガン・スタンレーのアナリストCourtney Yakavonis によるとYoY下落は年末まで続くだろうということだ。しかしBairdのアナリストDavid Leikerが言うには、底打ちが近いというーーしかしACT Researchのアナリストは年内は下落は続くという。
The blame continues to fall on the trade war.
その原因は貿易戦争だ。
"Little has changed since August with respect to the
freight market and freight rates, while uncertainties surrounding trade
and tariffs continue to weigh on truck buyers' psyches," said Steve Tam, ACT vice president, according to FreightWaves.
「８月以来貨物輸送にほとんど変化は見られない、しかしながら貿易と関税に関する不確実性がトラック買い手の心理に のしかかっている」とSteve Tamは言う、かれはACTの副社長だ、FreightWavesからの引用だ。
Don Ake, FTR vice president of commercial vehicles simply said: "Class 8 orders are stuck at the bottom of the cycle." Don Ake，FTRの商用車部門副社長だ、彼が言うには：「クラス８の発注はサイクルの底にある。」
As of September, the rolling 12-month average for orders is about 214,000.
"All the orders needed for 2019 were placed months ago and fleets are
now adjusting delivery dates and finalizing requirements," Ake
continued.
If there's one silver lining, it is that the slowdown
continues to wear away at the backlog of trucks that are awaiting
assembly. ACT predicts that the number of unbuilt trucks has fallen to 135,000, down from 151,000 in August.
The number of available used trucks continues to rise, leading to
lower prices in that sector. Volvo trucks and Mack trucks are both
taking two down weeks at their Virginia and Pennsylvania factories this
quarter.
Donald Broughton, principal and managing partner of research firm Broughton Capital, told FOX Business in September that in 1H19 nearly 640 trucking firms failed. That equates to 20,000 trucks have been pulled off the road.
In 2018, only 310 trucking companies failed, which points to an
accelerating trend that could transform into a major bust cycle for the
industry in 2020.
"This has to do with the spot market," American Trucking Associations
chief economist Bob Costello told FOX Business. "Those fleets that are
primarily in the spot market are facing volumes that are down nearly 50%
and rates that are down nearly 20%."
As previously reported, we've detailed how a freight recession continues to gain momentum through the end of summer, likely to continue through fall into 1H20.
多量のオピオイドを米国に送り込み、米国で深刻な麻薬中毒問題を引き起こしています。現代版「阿片戦争」です。あのトヨタ初の女性取締役もオピオイド中毒で逮捕解任されましたよね。 US Is Dependent On China For Almost 80% Of Its Medicine by Tyler Durden Fri, 05/31/2019 - 12:55 Experts are warning that the U.S. has become way too reliant on China for all our medicine , our pain killers, antibiotics, vitamins, aspirin and many cancer treatment medicine. 専門家はこう警告する、米国はすべての医薬品、痛み止め、抗生物質、ビタミン、アスピリン、各種抗がん剤で、中国依存度が高すぎる。 Fox Business reports that according to FDA estimates at least 80 percent of active ingredients found in all of America’s medicine come from abroad, primarily from China . And it’s not just the ingredients, China wants to become the world’s dominant generic drug maker. So far Chinese companies are making generic for everything from high blood pressure to chemotherapy drugs. 90 percent of America’s prescriptions a...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
結局、中国は隣国日本で２０年前に起きたことを学んでいなかったということでしょう、というかどの国もどの政府も十分成熟するまでは「わかっちゃいるけどやめられない」ということでしょうね、きっと。 Spooked By Apple? Wait ‘Til China’s Bubble Bursts Written by Jesse Colombo | Jan, 3, 2019 Apple stock plunged nearly 10% on Thursday after the company cut its revenue forecast due to slowing iPhone sales in China. Apple’s woes dragged U.S. stock indices lower by more than 2% as fears of a more extensive China-driven slowdown spread. アップルの株価は火曜に約１０％下落した、同社が中国でのiPhone売上原則を予想したためだ。アップルの弱さが米国株式指数を２％以上押し下げた、中国主導でさらなる原則が広がるのではという懸念からだ。 From the New York Times : ニューヨークタイムスによると： For years, no matter what was happening elsewhere, global companies bet billions upon billions of dollars that China’s consumers would keep spending money. 長年、他国で何が起きようとも多国籍企業は中国消費は巨額を維持することに賭けてきた。 Now, just when the world economy could use their financial firepower, they are no longer so quick to open their wallets. 今や、世界経済が金融弾薬を用いてももはや彼らの財布を緩めることはできない。 The latest sign of a slowdown in...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
１００年に一度と言われる出来事が過去２０年で二回も起き、今度が三度目になるかどうか？ Ignore The Yield Curve, They Said… 03-30-19 Written by Lance Roberts | Mar, 30, 2019 A Run For The Highs 高値に向かう Friday wrapped up the first quarter of 2019, and it was the best quarterly performance since 2009. As shown in the chart below, if you bought the bottom, you are “ killing it.” ２０１９Q1も金曜に終わり、２００９年以来最良の四半期だった。下のチャートに示すが、もしみなさんが底値でかっていたなら、「息を呑まんばかりだ」ったろう。 However, you didn’t. しかしながら、そうはしなかったでしょう。 Despite all of the media “hoopla” about the rally, the reality is that for most, they are simply getting back to even over the last year. どのメディアもこのラリーで「大騒ぎ」だが、現実を思い起こすと、これは単に昨年のレベルに戻っただけのことだ。 That is, assuming you didn’t “sell the bottom” in December, which by looking at allocation changes, certainly appears to be the case for many. ということで、みなさんは１２月の「底値で売る」ようなことをしなかったろう、それは多くの人も同じことだ。 If we deconstruct the ratio we can see the rotation a bit better この比率を分析すると資金移動をもう少しよく理解できる Not surpr...
