Preliminary Class 8 order data for September is starting to trickle in and, like the data preceding it so far this year - it's ugly. クラス8トラック発注がことしのこれまでと同様にひどい。 Class 8 orders were crushed 71% in September, reaching 12,600 units, according to Baird and Morgan Stanley. 9月にクラス8トラック発注が71%下落し、12,600台となった、Baird and Morgan Stanleyのデータだ。
This follows a 79% plunge in August.
8月の79%下落に次ぐ悪さだ。
This makes September the 11th consecutive month of YOY order declines and the 9th consecutive month of orders below 20,000. この9月で11か月連続でYoY発注が下落している、また9か月連続で20,000台を下回った。
Class 8 orders are often seen as a pulse on the U.S. economy. Morgan
Stanley analyst Courtney Yakavonis wrote in a note that she expects YOY
order declines to continue into the year's end. But Baird analyst David
Leiker said he was gaining "increased confidence" that a bottom in
declines was likely near - but that's a story we have heard from ACT Research analysts all year and orders just continue to collapse. クラス8トラックの発注は米国経済の脈動と見られることが多い。モルガン・スタンレーのアナリストCourtney Yakavonis によるとYoY下落は年末まで続くだろうということだ。しかしBairdのアナリストDavid Leikerが言うには、底打ちが近いというーーしかしACT Researchのアナリストは年内は下落は続くという。
The blame continues to fall on the trade war.
その原因は貿易戦争だ。
"Little has changed since August with respect to the
freight market and freight rates, while uncertainties surrounding trade
and tariffs continue to weigh on truck buyers' psyches," said Steve Tam, ACT vice president, according to FreightWaves.
「8月以来貨物輸送にほとんど変化は見られない、しかしながら貿易と関税に関する不確実性がトラック買い手の心理に のしかかっている」とSteve Tamは言う、かれはACTの副社長だ、FreightWavesからの引用だ。
Don Ake, FTR vice president of commercial vehicles simply said: "Class 8 orders are stuck at the bottom of the cycle." Don Ake,FTRの商用車部門副社長だ、彼が言うには:「クラス8の発注はサイクルの底にある。」
As of September, the rolling 12-month average for orders is about 214,000.
"All the orders needed for 2019 were placed months ago and fleets are
now adjusting delivery dates and finalizing requirements," Ake
continued.
If there's one silver lining, it is that the slowdown
continues to wear away at the backlog of trucks that are awaiting
assembly. ACT predicts that the number of unbuilt trucks has fallen to 135,000, down from 151,000 in August.
The number of available used trucks continues to rise, leading to
lower prices in that sector. Volvo trucks and Mack trucks are both
taking two down weeks at their Virginia and Pennsylvania factories this
quarter.
Donald Broughton, principal and managing partner of research firm Broughton Capital, told FOX Business in September that in 1H19 nearly 640 trucking firms failed. That equates to 20,000 trucks have been pulled off the road.
In 2018, only 310 trucking companies failed, which points to an
accelerating trend that could transform into a major bust cycle for the
industry in 2020.
"This has to do with the spot market," American Trucking Associations
chief economist Bob Costello told FOX Business. "Those fleets that are
primarily in the spot market are facing volumes that are down nearly 50%
and rates that are down nearly 20%."
As previously reported, we've detailed how a freight recession continues to gain momentum through the end of summer, likely to continue through fall into 1H20.
文章全体がZeroHedge特有の皮肉で満ちています。 Global Earnings Downgrades At Highest Level In 10 Years by Tyler Durden Thu, 01/10/2019 - 16:45 As stock markets plunged in December, asset-gatherers and commission-takers (and politicians) rushed on to every media outlet to reassure everyone that the fundamentals are "solid", "extremely strong", "very positive" ... pick your spin. The only problem is that top-down, the fundamentals are dismally disappointing... 12月の株式急落で、株式を買い集めている人、手数料狙いの人(そして政治家)はメディアに出ずっぱりで誰もにこう訴えた、ファンダメンタルズは「健全」、「とても強い」、「とてもポジティブ」・・・みなさんもこれに振り回された。唯一の問題はこれらは上意下達であることだ、実際のファンダメンタルズは悲しいかな失望するものだ・・・・ And bottom-up, the fundamentals are almost as bad as they have ever been as analysts take the ax to their outlooks... the number of analysts’ global earnings downgrades exceeded upgrades by the most since 2...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを7時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、2018年の最後の3ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...