Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,
When earlier this year China announced subsidies for 22.79 GW of new solar power capacity, those following the country’s renewable energy story must have started to worry. The capacity subsidized is half the amount approved in 2017, at 53 GW. And chances are that solar and wind additions will continue to fall. 今年のはじめに、新たな太陽光発電設備２２．７９GWに補助金を出すと中国政府は発表した、この件を見てみると、同国の再生エネルギー政策に懸念されることが起き始めている。この補助金対象規模は２０１７年補助の半分でしかない、５３GWだったのだ。そして太陽光発電と風力発電への補助金は引き続き下落するだろう。 Subsidies are one reason. In January, Beijing said it
will only approve solar power projects if they are cost-competitive
with coal. Judging by the size of subsidies announced in July, more than
22 GW in projects can boast cost-competitiveness with coal.
Yet there is another reason: curtailment. China-based journalist Michael Standaert wrote in a recent story for
Yale Environment 360 that China’s solar and wind farms continue to
produce electricity that is wasted because there is not enough
transmission capacity.
それでもまだ別の理由がある：削減。中国を拠点とするジャーナリスト Michael Standaertは最近こういう記事を書いた、Yale Environment 360によると、送電能力不足により中国の太陽光発電と風力発電による電力は廃棄（利用不能）されている。
Renewable energy is a top priority for China as it fights one of the
worst air pollution levels in the world while subject to an
uncomfortably high degree of reliance on energy imports, namely oil and
gas. At the same time, it is one of the biggest—if not the
single biggest—driver of global energy demand as its middle class grows
fast and with it, energy demand. Now, it seems, energy demand is taking the upper hand.
China has substantially increased subsidies for shale gas exploration
and methane separation from coal, Standaert writes. He also quotes a
former IEA official as saying, “Though China is the largest clean energy
market in the world, wind and solar only accounted for 5.2 percent and
2.5 percent of China’s national power generation in 2018.”
What’s more, Kevin Tu, now a fellow at the Center on Global Energy
Policy at Columbia University, tells Standaert that “Against the
backdrop of an ongoing U.S.-China trade war and a slowing Chinese
economy, political priority of climate change in China is unlikely to
become very high in the near future, indicating great difficulties for
Beijing to further upgrade its climate ambitions.”
In short, renewables won’t cut it when you need cheap power
to feed growing energy demand. By the way, China is not alone in this
situation. Energy demand is rising on a global scale and this means
emissions are rising, too. 簡単に言うと、高まるエネルギー需要を賄うほどに安価なら再生エネルギーが削減されることはないだろう。ところで、この状況は中国だけではない。世界規模でエネルギー需要は増している、それは大気汚染もまた増えるということだ。
In its latest International Energy Outlook,
the U.S. Energy Information Administration poured cold water on the
hopes of many climate change fighters by estimating global energy demand
will increase by as much as 50 percent between 2018 and 2050. That’s
under the EIA’s reference case scenario, that is, the middle ground
between the scenario of high economic growth, under which energy demand
growth will be even greater and the scenario of low economic growth,
which could give the planet a breather.
最新の世界エネルギー見通しによると、米国 Energy Information Admnistrationは多くの気候変動活動家に冷水を浴びせるものだ、２０１８年から２０５０年でエネルギー需要は５０％程度増えると見ている。EIAの標準ケースでは、高経済成長のもとで、エネルギー需要はさらに増えるだろう、そして低成長シナリオではひと息つける状態という見立てだ。
Unsurprisingly, Asia will be the biggest driver of this growing
demand and China specifically as its economy continues to expand at
rates higher than the mature economies of the OECD. As it expands,
Beijing—as other governments around the world—would need to juggle
between satisfying this growing energy demand and cutting emissions.
It seems like an impossible task. To do it, China
would need to solve the curtailment problem and make solar and wind even
cheaper, and not just for households but for the industrial sector: it
is this sector that will account for most of energy demand growth to
2050. これには解決策がないように見える。実行に際しては中国政府はエネルギ消費削減と太陽光発電風力発電の低価格を進めねばならない、それは家計だけでなく、産業部門にもだ：２０５０年に向けて産業部門のエネルギー需要が最も大きい。
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