Before
the next recession strikes and valuations reset, who around the world
will be the next bag holder? The Chinese have understood in the last
several years, it could be them. Their recent acquisitions of foreign
companies were paid at hefty premiums, and now, it seems that with an
imminent global trade recession, these folks are ready to dump.
次の景気後退とバリュエーション見直し前に、世界中の bag holder （無用資産持ち手）となるのは誰だろう？ここ数年それは中国がそうかもと思われていた。ここ数年の彼らの海外企業買収には巨額なプレミアムが盛り込まれていた、今になり、世界貿易景気後退が差し迫り、彼らは投げ出そうとしている。
Bloomberg
outlines a significant problem. Since the Chinese overpaid for many
foreign companies in the last several years, volatile markets across the
world have made it impossible at the moment to sell for the right
price.
Since the ability to offload some of these companies through public
markets has shut in 2019, one needs to look at the IPO implosion in the
US, as these companies are now trying to reduce their debt piles, which
is an acknowledgment that bad times are ahead.
Ferretti SpA, an Italian superyacht maker, owned by China's
SHIG–Weichai Group, shelved its IPO last week. Ferretti blamed
macroeconomic headwinds for the dealy, as the IPO was seen as a way for
SHIG–Weichai Group's to cash out of its position in the company.
Since the trade war began a little over 15 months ago between the US
and China, the Chinese have been selling assets across the world to
build liquidity as domestic capital controls become tighter.
The global IPO and M&A markets are slowing,
something we recently highlighted, has made it much more difficult for
Chinese firms to sell foreign companies and assets in 2H19.
"It's a big process of adjustment," Mark Webster, managing director
at BDA Partners in Shanghai, told Bloomberg in a phone interview. "Some
Chinese companies made overseas acquisitions at the top of the cycle and
ended up overpaying for assets that did not make a lot of strategic
sense. They are now finding it challenging to offload those businesses
at fair values."
「今はまさに調整時期だ、」と上海のBDA Partnersの取締役 Mark Websterはブルームバーグに告げた。「中国企業の中にはサイクルの天井で海外資産を買い取ったところもある、とても戦略的とは思えないような価格で支払い過ぎた。彼らは今になってフェアバリューでそういうビジネスを手放そうとしている。」
Another example of Chinese firms attempting to liquidate companies is
PizzaExpress Ltd., a UK casual dining chain acquired by Chinese private
equity firm Hony Capital in 2014.
Sources told Bloomberg that PizzaExpress had hired a financial
adviser to prepare debt talks with creditors. There's also a possibility
that advisors are preparing the company for a sale.
Data compiled by Bloomberg shows the volume of Chinese outbound deals
dropped to $59 billion so far this year, down 13% over last year, and
well off 2016 high.
It's only a matter of time before Chinese firms become forced sellers
of Western companies, only to realize that there will be no buyers at
the valuations they paid several years ago, as forced selling will then
crush valuations.
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
結局、中国は隣国日本で２０年前に起きたことを学んでいなかったということでしょう、というかどの国もどの政府も十分成熟するまでは「わかっちゃいるけどやめられない」ということでしょうね、きっと。 Spooked By Apple? Wait ‘Til China’s Bubble Bursts Written by Jesse Colombo | Jan, 3, 2019 Apple stock plunged nearly 10% on Thursday after the company cut its revenue forecast due to slowing iPhone sales in China. Apple’s woes dragged U.S. stock indices lower by more than 2% as fears of a more extensive China-driven slowdown spread. アップルの株価は火曜に約１０％下落した、同社が中国でのiPhone売上原則を予想したためだ。アップルの弱さが米国株式指数を２％以上押し下げた、中国主導でさらなる原則が広がるのではという懸念からだ。 From the New York Times : ニューヨークタイムスによると： For years, no matter what was happening elsewhere, global companies bet billions upon billions of dollars that China’s consumers would keep spending money. 長年、他国で何が起きようとも多国籍企業は中国消費は巨額を維持することに賭けてきた。 Now, just when the world economy could use their financial firepower, they are no longer so quick to open their wallets. 今や、世界経済が金融弾薬を用いてももはや彼らの財布を緩めることはできない。 The latest sign of a slowdown in...
多量のオピオイドを米国に送り込み、米国で深刻な麻薬中毒問題を引き起こしています。現代版「阿片戦争」です。あのトヨタ初の女性取締役もオピオイド中毒で逮捕解任されましたよね。 US Is Dependent On China For Almost 80% Of Its Medicine by Tyler Durden Fri, 05/31/2019 - 12:55 Experts are warning that the U.S. has become way too reliant on China for all our medicine , our pain killers, antibiotics, vitamins, aspirin and many cancer treatment medicine. 専門家はこう警告する、米国はすべての医薬品、痛み止め、抗生物質、ビタミン、アスピリン、各種抗がん剤で、中国依存度が高すぎる。 Fox Business reports that according to FDA estimates at least 80 percent of active ingredients found in all of America’s medicine come from abroad, primarily from China . And it’s not just the ingredients, China wants to become the world’s dominant generic drug maker. So far Chinese companies are making generic for everything from high blood pressure to chemotherapy drugs. 90 percent of America’s prescriptions a...
Gold Stocks Surge Higher Adam Hamilton February 22, 2019 2932 Words The gold miners’ stocks surged strongly this week, blasting to new upleg highs. The mounting gains are naturally driving more interest in this small contrarian sector, shifting sentiment towards bullish. Despite their accelerating rally, gold stocks still remain fairly low technically and deeply undervalued relative to gold. So their strengthening upleg likely has plenty of room to run considerably higher in coming months. 今週金鉱株は力強く上昇し新高値となった。上昇が積み上がりこの小さなコントラリアンセクターはさらに注目を集めている、これが心理を強気なものにする。ラリーが加速するが、金鉱株はテクニカル的にはまだ安値で、対ゴールドでとても過小評価されている。というわけで力強い上昇は今後数ヶ月まだかなりな上昇余地がある。 The gold miners’ stocks are ultimately leveraged plays on gold, which overwhelmingly drives their profits. The much-maligned yellow metal has enjoyed a strong upleg since mid-August, when record gold-futures s...
