SoftBank
Group CEO Masayoshi Son has ruined his name in the investment
community. His botched investments in WeWork, Uber, and Slack, just to
name a few, could result in billions of dollars in losses for SoftBank
Group Corp., according to Bloomberg, who compiled several notes from
Wall Street analysts detailing the turmoil.
Profit estimates for SoftBank's Vision Fund were slashed by $5.4
billion to an operating loss of $3.5 billion for 3Q19, wrote Mitsubishi
UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co, in a recent note. Most of the losses
were due to drastic valuation declines of Uber and Slack, and a massive
writedown of WeWork after the shelved IPO collapsed valuations last
month.
Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. believes SoftBank's Vision Fund could
write down as much as $5.93 billion of WeWork, and SoftBank Group could
writedown another $1.24 billion.
Tanaka said Uber's 35% drop in 15 weeks was a massive reason for
Vision Fund's awful 2Q19 performance. He also reduced SoftBank Group's
fiscal year operating profit to $9.446 billion, from $14.861 billion.
Chris Lane, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, said SoftBank might
record a $3.54 billion drop in the value of its Uber stake and $350 loss
in Slack. Lane believes the combined writedown for WeWork could be
$2.82 billion, but that is based on WeWork's valuation sliding to $15
billion from $24 billion. And as we've reported, WeWork could be worth
$10 billion to $12 billion, a dramatic discount from the $47 billion
valuation seen earlier this year.
It was only yesterday when Son spoke with Nikkei Business magazine, and said he is "embarrassed and flustered" by his recent track record.
孫正義が日経ビジネスに昨日語ったところでは、「当惑、失望している」ということだ。
"The results still have a long way to go and that makes me
embarrassed and impatient," said Son. "I used to envy the scale of the
markets in the U.S. and China, but now you see red-hot growth companies
coming out of small markets like in Southeast Asia. There is just no
excuse for entrepreneurs in Japan, myself included."
If macroeconomic headwinds continue to mount in the global economy,
technology unicorn valuations will reset further, meaning that
SoftBank's Vision Fund will continue to incur steep losses and massive
writedowns through 2020.
As we've highlighted in the last several weeks, the global IPO and M&A markets are starting to falter -- this will further stress Vision Fund as their ability to cash out of technology unicorns are coming to an end for the year.
We even reported last week that veteran venture capitalists called an emergency meeting of the technology unicorns in Silicon Valley to advise them on the turbulent times ahead.
この記事よりももっと詳しい分析がこちらにあります。: https://www.adamtownsend.me/china-financial-stability-report/ 元データは毎年開示されるPBOCの英文報告に基づいたものです: http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/130736/index.html ただ、毎年200ページ超もあり、そう簡単に読みこなせるものではありません。この記事の表のようなわかりやすい形で整理して開示はしていません。この記事の表にはどの年の何ページに書かれたデータであるかが示されています。日本語ネットの記事ではシャードーバンクの規模がよくわからないというものが多いですが、毎年PBOC自らがシャドーバンク規模を自ら認めています。その規模は驚くものです。 この記事に書かれている数値は驚くばかりです。ここまで信用創造をしているのかと驚きます。そりゃ昨年来RRRの低減とかの緩和策を連発してますが、効果が無いのももっともです。これまでの緩和の規模からすると昨年のこの手の緩和はその規模が全く足りないですね。一年以上前にZeroHedgeで中国企業の殆どがミンスキーポイントを超えている、企業の営業利益で債務金利が賄えず利払いのために新たな借金をしている、というのが詳しくデータで示されていましたが、なるほどなと思います。 The Black Swan So Ugly No One Will Talk About It by Phoenix Capita… Fri, 01/11/2019 - 11:55 The biggest black swan facing the financial system is China. 金融システムが直面する最大のブラックスワンは中国だ。 China has been the primary driver of growth for the global economy since the 2008 Crisis...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを7時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、2018年の最後の3ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...