SoftBank
Group CEO Masayoshi Son has ruined his name in the investment
community. His botched investments in WeWork, Uber, and Slack, just to
name a few, could result in billions of dollars in losses for SoftBank
Group Corp., according to Bloomberg, who compiled several notes from
Wall Street analysts detailing the turmoil.
Profit estimates for SoftBank's Vision Fund were slashed by $5.4
billion to an operating loss of $3.5 billion for 3Q19, wrote Mitsubishi
UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co, in a recent note. Most of the losses
were due to drastic valuation declines of Uber and Slack, and a massive
writedown of WeWork after the shelved IPO collapsed valuations last
month.
Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. believes SoftBank's Vision Fund could
write down as much as $5.93 billion of WeWork, and SoftBank Group could
writedown another $1.24 billion.
Tanaka said Uber's 35% drop in 15 weeks was a massive reason for
Vision Fund's awful 2Q19 performance. He also reduced SoftBank Group's
fiscal year operating profit to $9.446 billion, from $14.861 billion.
Chris Lane, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, said SoftBank might
record a $3.54 billion drop in the value of its Uber stake and $350 loss
in Slack. Lane believes the combined writedown for WeWork could be
$2.82 billion, but that is based on WeWork's valuation sliding to $15
billion from $24 billion. And as we've reported, WeWork could be worth
$10 billion to $12 billion, a dramatic discount from the $47 billion
valuation seen earlier this year.
It was only yesterday when Son spoke with Nikkei Business magazine, and said he is "embarrassed and flustered" by his recent track record.
孫正義が日経ビジネスに昨日語ったところでは、「当惑、失望している」ということだ。
"The results still have a long way to go and that makes me
embarrassed and impatient," said Son. "I used to envy the scale of the
markets in the U.S. and China, but now you see red-hot growth companies
coming out of small markets like in Southeast Asia. There is just no
excuse for entrepreneurs in Japan, myself included."
If macroeconomic headwinds continue to mount in the global economy,
technology unicorn valuations will reset further, meaning that
SoftBank's Vision Fund will continue to incur steep losses and massive
writedowns through 2020.
As we've highlighted in the last several weeks, the global IPO and M&A markets are starting to falter -- this will further stress Vision Fund as their ability to cash out of technology unicorns are coming to an end for the year.
We even reported last week that veteran venture capitalists called an emergency meeting of the technology unicorns in Silicon Valley to advise them on the turbulent times ahead.
Mish: Gold Hits New Record High And There's More To Come by Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2020 - 10:10 Twitter Facebook Reddit Email Print Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, Gold futures just touched $1928 taking out the Intraday high of $1923.70 in 2011. ゴールド先物が$1928になり、2011年の日中高値$1923.70を超えた。 11-Week Run 11週連続上昇 Gold is on a huge 11-week run. The last time gold did that was at the 2011 high. ゴールドはなんと11週連続で上昇だ。前回の新高値は2011年のことだった。 Is a pullback in order? A Gold COT chart says otherwise. 通常の引き戻しが待ち構えているだろうか? ゴールドのCoTチャートを見るとそうでもなさそうだ。 Gold COT Chart ゴールドCoTチャート Understanding Futures 先物市場を読み解く In the futures world there is a short for every long. 先物市場ではどのロングにもショートが対応している。 The first horizontal box has Large Specs, Small Specs, and Commercials. This is It's Old COT reporting. この図の下部、最初の横長い箱に示すのは Large Specs、Small Specs、そしてCommercialsのポジションだ。このチャートは従来からのCoT...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを7時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、2018年の最後の3ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
Productivity: What It Is & Why It Matters Written by Michael Lebowitz | Jan, 16, 2019 The Kansas City Federal Reserve posted the Twitter comment and graph below highlighting a very important economic theme. Although productivity is a basic building block of economic analysis, it is one that few economists and even fewer investors seem to appreciate. Kansas 市FEDがツイッターにコメントを投稿した、そのグラフを下に示す、とても重要な経済テーマだ。経済分析においては生産性というのはとても重要な要素だが、ほとんどのエコノミストがこの件に言及しない、投資家は更にこのことを忘れ去っている。 The Kansas City Fed’s tweet is 100% correct in that wages are stagnating in large part due to low productivity growth. As the second chart shows, it is not only wages. The post financial-crisis economic expansion, despite being within months of a record for duration, is by far the weakest since WWII. Kansas City FEDのツイートは100%正しい、給与が停滞している原因の主要因は生産性成長が低いからだ。二番目のチャートを見ても判るように、成長鈍化は給与だけではない。あの金融危機後の経済拡大は、第二次世界大戦後で記録的長期の拡大期間だが、とても弱い拡大だ。 Productivity growth over the last 350+ years is ...