Money manager Peter Schiff says the Federal Reserve has already
started a new money printing program that continues to expand the debt
bubble and keep global markets propped up. This started abruptly last
month in what is called the “repo market,” where the Fed provides
liquidity for traders of short-term money or overnight funding.
Peter Schiffはこういう、FEDはすでに紙幣印刷プログラムを再開している、債務バブルを膨らまし世界株式市場を支えている。これは先月突然「レポ市場」で始まった、ここでFEDは短期的な一夜もの流動性を供給している。
Schiff says, “When the Fed was doing QE3, they were buying $85
billion worth of debt per month. They (Fed) just did $176 billion in
three weeks, and they say they are not doing QE..."
"So, the Fed is monetizing more debt not doing QE than when
they were doing QE, which means they are doing it and they are going to
have to do more of it. The reason they are doing it is because
the markets are finally trying to move interest rates higher because the
Fed has been suppressing them. They are artificially low, and these
artificially low interest rates have done tremendous damage to the
economy over the years. Now, rates are rising, and the Fed is trying to
stop this from happening. They shouldn’t do this, but this is what they
have to do to keep the bubble from imploding. This is why they
have to go back to QE. If they didn’t, rates would be much higher, the
stock market would be much lower, real estate prices would be coming
down and we would be heading for another financial crisis.”
What is the end goal in all of this? Schiff contends, “The only goal our leaders have is to postpone the pain so they can get re-elected..." この状況の到達点は何だろう？Schiffの主張はこうだ、「我々の指導者の唯一の目的は痛みを先延ばしし、再選されることだ・・・」
"That’s the whole idea. Look, this is a gigantic time bomb; we just have to make sure that the fuse is longer. We
have an election coming up, and the Fed Chair just wants to make sure
they can keep everything going long enough to resign and have somebody
else be the fall guy. Nobody cares about the long term health of the
economy, and the plan is to delay the inevitable and pretend everything
is good. . . . As far as the debt is concerned, the debt is never going to be repaid. We can’t repay it, and, in fact, nobody even believes we are going to repay it.”
So, what is the next move by central bankers?
Schiff says, “It’s more politically expedient to take the printing
route, especially because nobody believes they are going to destroy the
currency..."
"They think they are going to print enough money to reduce the value
of the debt enough to make everything go away. It’s like trying to get a
little bit pregnant, which is impossible to do. So, once they start
monetizing debt in that way, then that’s it. The dollar is going
to get killed. That’s where we are headed. That’s the only thing that
hasn’t happened yet. Gold has broken out. Gold is over $1,500 per ounce,
and it is hitting record highs in most currencies. Not in the dollar,
yet. The dollar is still relatively strong against other fiat
currencies, but the fact it is this weak against gold shows you there is
a lot of underlying weakness in the dollar that has yet to manifest . .
. but that is going to happen. When the dollar starts to fall, that’s
going to take the bond market down with it. Long term interest rates are
ultimately going to rise when the dollar tanks.”
Source: Bloomberg
Schiff also says, “I think gold is undervalued relative to where it should be because so many people have too much confidence in central banks and fiat money..."
"They don’t realize they need to own gold. I think they are going to come to that epiphany soon, and when they do, the price of gold is going to explode...
Gold is going to be money again. There is no question in my mind that is going to happen.”
ゴールドは再度マネーになろうとしている。そうなることに私は何の疑念も持っていない。」
Schiff predicts President Trump will not get re-elected but not
because of impeachment, but the failing economy. Schiff says, “The trade
deficits are bigger than they have ever been. They are bigger than they
were under Obama..."
"Manufacturing is already in recession, and it will be deeper in recession by the time the election comes. The numbers are the worst they have been since 2009.
Most blue collar voters who voted for Trump in 2016 will be worse off in 2020. They will have more debt, and they will have lower real wages if they even have jobs.
この記事よりももっと詳しい分析がこちらにあります。： https://www.adamtownsend.me/china-financial-stability-report/ 元データは毎年開示されるPBOCの英文報告に基づいたものです： http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/130736/index.html ただ、毎年２００ページ超もあり、そう簡単に読みこなせるものではありません。この記事の表のようなわかりやすい形で整理して開示はしていません。この記事の表にはどの年の何ページに書かれたデータであるかが示されています。日本語ネットの記事ではシャードーバンクの規模がよくわからないというものが多いですが、毎年PBOC自らがシャドーバンク規模を自ら認めています。その規模は驚くものです。 この記事に書かれている数値は驚くばかりです。ここまで信用創造をしているのかと驚きます。そりゃ昨年来RRRの低減とかの緩和策を連発してますが、効果が無いのももっともです。これまでの緩和の規模からすると昨年のこの手の緩和はその規模が全く足りないですね。一年以上前にZeroHedgeで中国企業の殆どがミンスキーポイントを超えている、企業の営業利益で債務金利が賄えず利払いのために新たな借金をしている、というのが詳しくデータで示されていましたが、なるほどなと思います。 The Black Swan So Ugly No One Will Talk About It by Phoenix Capita… Fri, 01/11/2019 - 11:55 The biggest black swan facing the financial system is China. 金融システムが直面する最大のブラックスワンは中国だ。 China has been the primary driver of growth for the global economy since the 2008 Crisis...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
