エネルギーセクターの格下げ連鎖が始まる：ExxonがAA+を失う

The Energy Downgrade Avalanche Begins: Exxon Loses AA+ Rating











For the past 9 years ever since the downgrade of the US government by S&P from AAA to AA+, American energy giant Exxon, which back in 2007 had a market cap of over $500 billion only to see that cut by two thirds to $150BN today (half of where it was at the start of the year) , had the same Standard and Poor's credit rating as the US government. That period of perplexing parity ended just after 1pm on Monday, when S&P, confirming it would move quickly on rating downgrades this time following a near record plunge in the price of oil last week, downgraded Exxon from AA+ to AA as Exxon's "Lower Oil Price Assumption Weakens Cash Flow/Leverage Metrics"; and since the outlook is negative, it means more downgrades are coming.

米国連邦政府がS&PからAA+への格下げを受けて以来の９年間、米国最大のエネルギ企業Exxonは時価総額＄５００Bを誇ってきたが、今日時点で２/３を失い＄１５０Bとなった（失った内の半分は今年に入ってからだ）、Exxonはずっと米国政府と同格扱いだった。この扱いが月曜１ｐｍに終わった、先週の原油価格急落に伴い、AA+からAAへと格下げした、「原油価格下落でキャッシュフロー低下と債務割合が増える」ためだ；そして見通しはネガティブ、というわけでさらなる格下げもありうる。

Highlights from the downgrade below:

格下げの要点はこういう具合だ：
  • U.S.-based integrated oil company Exxon Mobil Corp.'s cash flow/leverage measures fell well below S&P's expectations for the rating in 2019, and with lower oil and natural gas prices, low refining margins and weak chemicals demand anticipated over the next two years, the rating agency expects measures to remain weak without a significant change in the company's financial plans.

    米国を本拠とする石油関連複合企業Exxon Mobil Corpのキャッシュフロー/借金が、２０１９年のS&P予想を大きく下回った、原油価格・天然ガス価格低下に伴い、今後２年精製マージンも下がるだろう、当社の財政プランに大幅な改善がない限り格付け見込みは弱含みだ。
    　
  • S&P revised its estimates to reflect the recent reduction in our crude oil and natural gas price deck assumptions.

    S&Pは最近の原油価格天然ガス価格低下を反映して格付けを改定した。
    　
  • As a result, S&P is lowering its issuer credit rating and unsecured debt ratings on ExxonMobil to 'AA' from 'AA+'.

    結果として、S&PはExxonMobilの無担保債務格付を’AA’から’AA＋’に下げる。
    　
  • The negative outlook reflects the potential for a further downgrade if the company does not take adequate steps to improve cash flows and leverage over the next 12 to 24 months, in order to bring funds from operations (FFO)/debt closer to 60% and debt to EBITDA to about 1.5x for a sustained period.

    見通しはネガティブであり、今後１２−２４ヶ月の間にキャッシュフローや債務の改善が見られない場合はさらなる格下げもありうる、当該期間に（FFOキャッシュフロー)/債務比率を６０％にしEBITEDAを１．５ｘにすることを期待している。
The full note is below:

全文はこういう具合だ：






Hit by moderating crude oil and natural gas prices and an increase in capital spending, and with downstream and chemicals margins dropping to a five-year low, ExxonMobil's cash flow leverage weakened significantly in 2019 with FFO/debt falling below 45% from over 60% in 2018, and debt to EBITDA increasing to 1.8x from 1.2x. In addition, the company's discretionary cash flow deficit came in at about $10 billion, leading to an increase in debt levels. Based on our revised oil and natural gas price deck assumptions and our outlook for continued weakness in the refining and chemicals sectors, we now expect cash flow leverage to remain weaker than our expectations for the 'AA+' rating over the next two to three years.
 原油価格低下と設備投資のため、そして石油化学製品価格が５年ぶりの安値となりExxonMobilの２０１９キャッシュフロー比率は大きく悪化した、FFO/債務比率は４５％以下となった、２０１８年には６０％を超えていたのに、そして債務の対EBITDA比率は１．２ｘから１．８ｘと悪化した。更に加えて、裁量的キャッシュフロー赤字は＄１０Bになった、債務が増えたためだ。私どもの原油価格先行きおよび精製マージン、化学製品に関する見込みも弱いものだ、今やキャシュフローレバレッジは予想を下回るもので、今後２，３年’AA+'は不適格だ。


The negative outlook reflects S&P Global Ratings' view that Exxon Mobil Corp.'s current financial leverage is weak for the rating, as well as the potential for a downgrade if credit measures do not improve over the next 12 to 24 months. We project FFO to debt to be in the 45% to 50% range and debt to EBITDA of about 1.7x in 2020 and 2021, as oil production increases and refining margins increase due to improved reliability relative to 2019. Our estimates assume the company exercises prudent financial policies in the near term including tempering capital spending and limiting share repurchases in 2020, and that it takes additional steps to improve leverage over the next two years.

S&P Global Rationsの見立てでは見通しネガティブであり、Exxon Mobil　Corp.の現在の財政レバレッジは弱いものだ、今後１２−２４ヶ月の間に債務状況が改善されなければさらなる格下げもありうる。私どもとしてはFFO/ 債務比率は４５％から５０％の範囲に収めるべきと見ており、また債務の対EBITDA比率は２０２０，２０２１に１．７ｘ程度にすべきと見ている、２０１９と比べて相対的に原油生産量と精製マージンの増加が求められる。 設備投資を抑え短期的に規律ある財政政策と２０２０年の自社株買いを抑制することを期待している、こうすることで今後２年で債務のさらなる改善が見られるだろう。
We could lower ratings if we no longer expected leverage to improve such that FFO/debt approached 60% and debt/EBITDA approached 1.5x for a sustained period. This would most likely occur if the company did not adjust capital spending in light of lower commodity prices, failed to improve capital efficiency or refining and chemicals margins, did not execute on additional asset sales, or continued to return cash to shareholders beyond internally generated cash flow.
 一定期間を経てもFFO/債務が６０％にならず、債務/EBITDAが１．５ｘにならないようならば私どもはさらなる格下げを実行するだろう。コモディティ価格下落に伴い設備投資を減らさなければこういう事態を迎えるだろう、資本効率改善や精製費用改善が見られない場合だ、また追加の資産売却がない場合もだ、また事業で生み出すキャッシュフロー以上のリターンを株主に払った場合もだ。
We could consider a revision of the outlook to stable if the company were able to bring FFO/debt back closer to 60% and debt/EBITDA to around 1.5x for a sustained period, achieving these levels even at our long-term West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price deck assumption of $50 per barrel (bbl). This would most likely occur if the company were able to boost operating efficiency, improve refining and chemicals margins, complete more asset sales than we are currently projecting, or reduce shareholder distributions.
一定期間の間に、もし当該企業がFFO/債務比率を６０％に近づけ、さらに債務/EBITDA比率を１．５ｘ程度にするなら見通しを持続的とすることもある、この目標はWTI価格が＄５０/バレルでも実現可能と見ている。経営効率を改善するならばこの目標は実現可能と見ている、精製や化学製品部門での改善も伴ってだ、私どもが現在想定するよりも多くの資産を売却するのも良いことだ、もしくは株主還元を抑えることだ。

And with Exxon down, we now await as some $140 Billion in BBB rated "investment grade" energy debt is cut to junk...

Exxonの格下げに伴い、ZeroHedgeは、エネルギーセクター債務のうち＄１４０BのBBB格付け「投資適格」債務がジャンクになると見ている・・・・







.. finally starting the fallen angel avalanche which we have been warning about since 2017.

・・・等々堕天使連鎖が始まった、ZeroHedgeが２０１７年からずっと待ち続けていたものだ

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