武漢肺炎、重症者はどれくらい

武漢肺炎はただの風邪なので、問題はPCR検査陽性数ではなく重症患者がどの程度発生するかだ。中国の重症患者はほとんどが医療崩壊した武漢に集中している。日本３０人も韓国４９人も大したことはない。感染がコントロールされているのだ。特に韓国はPCR陽性に対して重症割合は０．７％だ、すばらしい。インフルエンザよりも遥かに穏やかな風邪だ。イタリアは重症患者が５００人を超えており医療崩壊の入り口だ。イランは重症患者数を計数開示できないくらいに混乱している。イランの保健省の責任者がテヘランの感染率が３０％−４０％と認めており、医療崩壊しているのは明らかだ。

注目すべきはダイアモンド・プリンセスだ。高齢者が多いにもかかわらず重症者の割合がわずか７％だ。健全な医療が維持できるとこれだけ高齢者集団でも死亡＋重症で８％にしかならない。CDCがグランド・プリンセスで同様の経験をすると、武漢肺炎はインフルエンザと変わらないことを理解するだろう。

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Total105,9173,57057,5336,00644,814
99TerritoriesConfirmed casesDeathsRecoveredSevere/criticalTestedActive cases
GMT1:16:10 AMMar 8, 2020+4,052<- dailyMar 8, 2020+1033.4%RateMar 8, 202054.3%RateMar 8, 202013.4%RateMar 8, 2020305,2219642.3%
ASIAChina80,651+99source3,070+28source3.8%55,404source68.7%5,489source24.8%22,17727.5%
ASIAThailand47source1source2.1%31source66.0%1source6.7%1531.9%
ASIAJapan461+45source6source1.3%69source15.0%30source7.8%7,476source38683.7%
Cruize shipDiamond Princess696source6source0.9%242source34.8%34source7.6%4,089source44864.4%
ASIAKorea, Republic of7,041+448source48+4source0.7%118source1.7%49source0.7%178,189source6,87597.6%
ASIATaiwan45source1source2.2%12source26.7%0.0%10,863source3271.1%
N. AMERICAUnited States of America439+119source19+4source4.3%8source1.8%7source1.7%source41293.8%
ASIAMacau10source010source100.0%1,620source00.0%
ASIAHong Kong109+2source2source1.8%51source46.8%5source8.9%2,249source5651.4%
ASIASingapore138+8source090source65.2%8source16.7%1,364source4834.8%
ASIAVietnam20+2source016source80.0%2,012source420.0%
ASIANepal1source01source100.0%00.0%
EUROPEFrance949+296source16+7source1.7%12source1.3%91.0%92197.0%
OCEANIAAustralia71+11source2source2.8%22source31.0%0.0%7,214source4766.2%
ASIAMalaysia93+10source023source24.7%0.0%7075.3%
N. AMERICACanada60+9source08source13.3%1source1.9%4,146source5286.7%
ASIASri Lanka1source01source100.0%00.0%
EUROPEGermany795+156source016source2.0%2source0.3%77998.0%
ASIAUnited Arab Emirates45source07source15.6%2source5.3%3884.4%
EUROPEFinland19+4source01source5.3%200source1894.7%
ASIAIndia34+3source03source8.8%3191.2%
ASIAPhilippines6+1source1source16.7%2source33.3%350.0%
ASIACambodia2+1source01source50.0%150.0%
EUROPEItaly5,883+1,246source233+36source4.0%589source10.0%351source6.9%42,062source5,06186.0%
EUROPEUnited Kingdom206+43source2source1.0%8source3.9%0.0%20,338source19695.1%
ASIARussia13source02source15.4%1184.6%
EUROPESweden161+24source01source0.6%0.0%16099.4%
EUROPESpain519+119source10+2source1.9%30source5.8%11source2.3%9source47992.3%
EUROPEBelgium169+60source01source0.6%1,707source16899.4%
AFRICAEgypt48+33source01source2.1%1,835source4797.9%
ASIAIran5,823+1,076source145+21source2.5%739source12.7%0.0%4,93984.8%
ASIAIsrael21source000.0%0.0%21100.0%
ASIALebanon28+6source013.6%2source7.4%2796.4%
ASIAKuwait61+3source000.0%0.0%61100.0%

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