Like many countries, China attempted to rein in its debt growth over
the past couple years, but ultimately gave up and is now back to piling
on even more debt. Bloomberg reports –
For almost two years, the question
has lingered over China’s market-roiling crackdown on financial
leverage: How much pain can the country’s policy makers stomach?
Evidence
is mounting that their limit has been reached. From bank loans to
trust-product issuance to margin-trading accounts at stock brokerages,
leverage in China is rising nearly everywhere you look.
While
seasonal effects explain some of the gains, analysts say the trend has
staying power as authorities shift their focus from containing the
nation’s $34 trillion debt pile to shoring up the weakest economic
expansion since 2009. The government’s evolving stance was underscored
by President Xi Jinping’s call for stable growth late last week, while
on Monday the banking regulator said the deleveraging push had reached
its target.
As I’ve been warning,
China has been experiencing a powerful credit bubble over the past
decade (see the chart below). China’s leaders inflated the credit bubble
in order to supercharge economic growth during and after the global
financial crisis in 2008/2009. China’s credit-driven economy has become
one of the main growth engines of the global economy, which has scary
implications because it’s even more evidence that the global economic
recovery is predicated on debt.
China’s aggressive credit expansion is a major contributor to the
global debt explosion over the past couple decades. Global debt has
increased by $150 trillion since 2003 and $70 trillion since 2008:
China’s credit bubble is very similar to Japan’s economic bubble
in the late-1980s. For many years, Japan’s economic growth seemed
unstoppable and many people believed that Japan would overtake Western
economies in short order. Of course, Japan’s growth miracle came to a
screeching halt in the early-1990s when the country’s bubble burst. By
ramping up debt so aggressively (which borrows economic growth from the
future), China is following in the same footsteps as Japan and will soon
experience the downsides of debt-fueled growth.
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多量のオピオイドを米国に送り込み、米国で深刻な麻薬中毒問題を引き起こしています。現代版「阿片戦争」です。あのトヨタ初の女性取締役もオピオイド中毒で逮捕解任されましたよね。 US Is Dependent On China For Almost 80% Of Its Medicine by Tyler Durden Fri, 05/31/2019 - 12:55 Experts are warning that the U.S. has become way too reliant on China for all our medicine , our pain killers, antibiotics, vitamins, aspirin and many cancer treatment medicine. 専門家はこう警告する、米国はすべての医薬品、痛み止め、抗生物質、ビタミン、アスピリン、各種抗がん剤で、中国依存度が高すぎる。 Fox Business reports that according to FDA estimates at least 80 percent of active ingredients found in all of America’s medicine come from abroad, primarily from China . And it’s not just the ingredients, China wants to become the world’s dominant generic drug maker. So far Chinese companies are making generic for everything from high blood pressure to chemotherapy drugs. 90 percent of America’s prescriptions a...
日本と同じくPOMOになる公算が大きいとは思いますが、どうでしょうね。 米国大統領選挙の勝者と１１月投票日前数ヶ月の株価の動向には９割以上の相関があります。はっきり言えば、公約とか主義主張には無関係です :) 。この時期株価を維持・上昇すると現職政党勝利、株価が下落すると挑戦政党勝利となります。熱心な民主党員活動家である前FED議長イエレンは頻繁に口先介入をしましたが、量的緩和再開まで踏み込めず、４年前の秋に株価が下落し、トランプ勝利となりました。株価と大統領選挙の相関をトランプは熟知しています、４年前には株価が下落するようしきりと口先介入していました。今年は１１月まで株価を維持できるかどうか？どうでしょう。 Mark Your Calendar: Next Week The Fed's Liquidity Drain Begins by Tyler Durden Fri, 01/03/2020 - 14:54 What goes up, must come down, at least in theory. 上昇があれば、その後に下落が伴う、少なくとも理論上ではそうだ。 Ever since the start of October when the Fed launched QE4 - or as some still call it "Not QE" - in response to the Sept repo crisis, figuring out the market has been pretty simple: if the Fed's balance sheet goes up so does the S&P500, and vice versa. １０月にFEDがQE4を始めて以来ーー「Not QE」という人もいるがーー９月のレポ危機に対応したものだが、相場はとても単純になった：FEDがバランス...
先週の記事です。最後の２段落だけ訳をいれておきます。 Gold’s Peculiar Surge Adam Hamilton February 21, 2020 3246 Words Gold is enjoying an awesome week, surging back above $1600 for the first time in nearly 7 years! That big round psychologically-heavy level is really catching traders’ attention, great improving sentiment. Yet this recent gold surge has proven peculiar. Unlike normal rallies, the buying driving this one largely hasn’t come from gold’s usual primary drivers. The stealth buying behind this surge may impair its staying power. This Tuesday gold surged 1.2% higher to close near $1602. It hadn’t crested $1600 on close since way back in late March 2013 fully 6.9 years ago! Long-time gold traders shudder at the dark spring which followed. Within less than several weeks after that last $1600+ close, gold plummeted 16.2%. Most of that came in ...
What Could Go Wrong? The Fed's Warns On Corporate Debt by Tyler Durden Thu, 05/09/2019 - 11:44 Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, “So, if the housing market isn’t going to affect the economy, and low interest rates are now a permanent fixture in our society, and there is NO risk in doing anything because we can financially engineer our way out it – then why are all these companies building up departments betting on what could be the biggest crash the world has ever seen? What is more evident is what isn’t being said. Banks aren’t saying “we are gearing up just in case something bad happens.” Quite the contrary – they are gearing up for WHEN it happens. When the turn does come, it will be unlike anything we have ever seen before. The scale of it could be considerable because of the size of some...
