ただし債務先進国の日本では、家計300兆円、非金融法人400兆円、政府1300兆円とGDPの400%程度の債務を積み上げてもまだ問題が顕在化しません。今も毎年政府債務は30兆円増え続けており、一方GDPはほとんど増えていません。多分海外の政策立案者はこれを先例 or 目安として見ているような気がします。
When
it comes to estimating China's total outstanding debt, there has long
been confusion about the real number with most putting the debt/GDP at
around 250%, while the IIF in 2017 calculated China's debt load as high
as 300% of GDP (which means that by now it is substantially higher).
Then, last year, China watchers added another 40% of debt/GDP to the total when, as S&P calculated,
China’s local governments had accumulated 40 trillion yuan ($6
trillion) - or even more - in off-balance sheet, or Local government
financing vehicles (LGFV) debt, an amount Bloomberg has dubbed China's "hidden debt bomb", suggesting the already record surge in defaults in 2018 is set to accelerate further.
昨年になり、中国ウオッチャーはさらに政務/GDPを40%追加した、S&Pの試算では、中国の地方政府は40T人民元($6T)以上の簿外債務があるとみている、Local government financing vehicles LGFV の形を取ることもある、この債務をブルームバーグは「中国の隠れ債務爆弾」と揶揄する、すでに2018年の倒産は急増しているが、これがさらに加速することを示唆している。
"The potential amount of debt is an iceberg with titanic credit risks," S&P credit analysts wrote in October 2018,
with much of the build-up related to local government financing
vehicles, which don’t necessarily have the full financial backing of
local governments themselves.
Local government debt has quickly emerged, together with "shadow
banking" debt, as one of the main risks for China's economy, because
with the national economy slowing, and as a result of a crackdown on
shadow lending and a Beijing quota for issuance of local-government
bonds not enough to fund infrastructure projects to support regional
growth, authorities across the country have resorted to LGFVs to raise
financing, according to S&P. That’s left LGFVs “walking a tightrope”
between deleveraging and transforming their businesses into more
typical state-owned enterprises, S&P warned.
So fast forward 6 months, when in China's ongoing attempt to contain
the soaring financial risks from its debt bubble, Beijing - seemingly
content with the progress it has made on containing shadow debt - is
re-focusing on the "hidden debt" owed by local governments, as officials
seek to reduce repayment pressures amid falling tax revenues.
And with Beijing adding pressure on local authorities to become more transparent with their liabilities, Bloomberg reports that provinces
and cities from Jiangsu in the east to Qinghai in the west are looking
for means to pay-off or restructure their implicit borrowings, which
include trillions in "off the books" funding via financing vehicles.
Some authorities are seeking cheap refinancing from the nation’s largest
policy lender, the China Development Bank, and others are selling off
state-owned assets such as office buildings and housing.
Efforts to deleverage the "hidden time bomb" of 40 trillion in local
government debt have gained urgency after the government recently
pledged to cut taxes by two trillion yuan ($300 billion), further
draining local coffers and adding to the possibility of missed
repayments. Meanwhile, the lack of official estimates of the total local
government debt load - S&P's CNY40 trillion estimate is just that -
which usually carries higher rates than on-book ones, makes the issue
even trickier.
There is a more pressing reason behind the rush to deleverage: as
Nomura's China economist Lu Ting said, the motive is “just that the
problem can’t be delayed anymore,” as in many places fiscal revenues and gross domestic product aren’t enough to cover the interest and principals.
In other words, China may be just months ahead of its own Minsky Moment.
言い換えると、中国はあと数ヶ月で自らのミンスキーモーメントに達するかもしれない。
With official probes now taking place to quantify the local debt, so
far they’ve shown that hidden debt in some places exceeds the on-book
borrowing, a lawmaker of the National People’s Congress Zhu Mingchun
said over the weekend, according to Bloomberg.
Meanwhile, payments due for local-government financing vehicle debt are soaring and could reach 2.3 trillion yuan this year,
according to estimates by Industrial Securities Co, which notes that
local authorities will have to carry that burden at a time of slowing
revenue growth due to tax cuts and shrinking receipts from land sales.
One possible solution is massive restructuring of the debt: in one
case in December, the CDB led a group of commercial lenders in a swap of
260.7 billion yuan of implicit debt borrowed by Shanxi province to
build highways. The debt was restructured with a tenor of up to 25
years, allowing the local authorities to save 3 billion yuan in interest
payments every year, according to Shanxi Transportation Holdings Group.
As Bloomberg notes, asset sales are also being used. For example, a
district in the northeastern city of Shenyang is planning to sell more
than 38,000 square meters of offices and government-built housing to
repay maturing debt.
Of course, since in China everything is in
some state of being a bubble, officials are simply using “the healthier
part of the balance sheet of the public sector to address some of the
hidden issues,” but they have to make sure the risky loans won’t get out
of control again in the future, because by that time the balance sheet
would be less capable of absorbing them, according to Grace Ng, a China
JPMorgan economist.
China is also taking advantage of the current euphoria involving
local capital markets: a financing platform in the eastern province of
Jiangsu, where the CDB is involved in some cases of debt restructuring,
sold a 270-day bond last week with a coupon of 4.8 percent, 150 basis points lower than a similar note the company issued in January. On
Monday, a financing and investment company owned by a city in Shanxi
province was upgraded to AA+ from AA by China Chengxin International
Credit Rating Co., which cited the better outlook for capital quality.
地方金融市場の現在のeuphoria を中国政府は有利に利用している:江蘇省西部地域での金融機関、当地ではCDBが債務再編を行っている、ここで先週270日債権を4.8パーセントクーポンで売却した、1月に発行された同様の債権よりも150BPも低い。山西省のある市が持つ金融投資会社は月曜にAAからAA+に格上げとなった、China Chengxin International Credit Rationg Coによるものだ、今後の見立ても良好と格付けしている。
"The bigger worry is the moral hazard issue,” said Zhu Ning, a
professor of finance at Tsinghua University and the author of “China’s
Guaranteed Bubble.” “Implicit government guarantees still lie at the
core of so many problems."
And nowhere is the problem of moral hazard greater than in China,
whose financial sector is approaching double the size of its US peer
even as China's GDP is years behind catching up with America's. Which
makes Beijing's choice relatively easy: keep kicking the can, or watch
as the long-overdue Minsky Moment finally arrives and topples the
biggest house of financial cards ever constructed.
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう この長文記事をRay Dalioが発表し、ゴールドは$1400から$1420へと急騰しました。GLD保持高に変化はないのでたぶん先物ポジションが進んでいます。 Ray Dalio Warns A "New Paradigm" Is Coming: "Buy Gold, Sell Stocks" by Tyler Durden Wed, 07/17/2019 - 14:44 Authored by Ray Dalio via LinkedIn, One of my investment principles is: 私の投資原則はこういうものだ: Identify the paradigm you’re in, examine if and how it is unsustainable, and visualize how the paradigm shift will transpire when that which is unsustainable stops. 現在のパラダイムを認識し、それがどの程度持続可能かどうか判断する、そしてパラダイムシフトがどのように起きるか、そしてその着地点を思い描く。 Over my roughly 50 years of being a global macro investor, I have observed there to be relatively long of periods (about 10 years) in which the markets and market relationships operate in a certain way (which I call “paradig...
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