Commercial and industrial (C&I) loan activity is watched
closely by economists to gauge the strength of the economy and estimate
where we are in the business cycle. C&I loans are used to
finance capital expenditures or increase the borrower’s working capital.
The C&I loan cycle often takes up to a couple of years to turn
positive after a recession, but provides even more confirmation that an
economic expansion is underway. For example, the U.S. Great Recession
officially ended in June 2009, but the C&I loan cycle didn’t turn
positive until late-2010. C&I loans also help to warn when the economic cycle is approaching its end (as they are now).
C&I ローン（企業の設備投資や運転資金に利用するローン）動向がエコノミストに注視されている、経済の強さや景気サイクルで今どこにいるかを判断するためにだ。C＆Iローンは設備投資や運転資金に用いられる。景気後退後にC＆Iローンが上昇するのは２年ほどの遅れがある、しかしこういう状況のときには経済拡大が起きていることが確実だ。たとえば、米国のGreat Recessionは２００９年６月に終わったが、C&Iローンが増えるのは２０１０年遅くだった。C&Iローンはまた景気拡大終焉の警告ともなる（まさにいまがそうだ）。
Total outstanding U.S. commercial and industrial loans have increased
by 92% in the current cycle, which surpasses the 80% increase during
the mid-2000s cycle and the 88% increase during the late-1990s cycle:
One way of determining when the C&I loan cycle (and,
therefore, the overall economic cycle) is nearing its end is by charting
total outstanding commercial and industrial loans as a percentage of
GDP. When C&I loans are at 10% of GDP or higher (the
“Danger Zone”), that is typically a sign that the cycle is long in the
tooth and about to tip over into a recession. According to the chart
below, recessions occurred shortly after C&I loans peaked within the “Danger Zone.” C&I
loans are currently in that zone, which I see as further confirmation
that we are in a Fed-driven economic bubble that will end badly.
The current C&I loan cycle has been more powerful and
longer-lasting than the prior two cycles because the Fed has held
interest rates at record low levels for a record length of time. As the
chart below shows, credit booms and bubbles form during low interest
rate periods (low interest rates encourage borrowing):
現在のC&Iローンサイクルは過去二回のものよりも力強く長期に渡るものだった、というのも、FEDが金利を記録的低位にかつ記録的長期に渡り維持したためだ。下のチャートに示すが、与信ブームとバブルが見て取れる、低金利が借金しやすくするためだ：
The U.S. corporate debt market (which is mostly in the form of bonds
instead loans) is telling a similar message as commercial and industrial
loans, as I recently discussed.
To summarize, ultra-low bond yields over the past decade have
encouraged a corporate borrowing bubble that has also been funding the
stock buyback boom. As a result, total outstanding U.S.
corporate debt has increased by $3 trillion or 45% since the last peak
in 2008. U.S. corporate debt is now at an all-time high of over 46% of
GDP, which is even worse than the levels reached during the dot-com bubble and mid-2000s housing bubble.
I am fully aware that both C&I loans and corporate debt
may reach a higher percentage of GDP in this cycle due to how low
interest rates are. Still, it is important to be aware of the risks that
are building up and not be complacent. When the Fed and other
central banks hold interest rates at low levels, they create market
distortions and encourage malinvestment or unwise lending decisions that
would not otherwise occur in a normal interest rate environment. These
malinvestments are revealed once interest rates are raised and the
economic cycle turns (read my piece about this in Forbes). A
tremendous amount of malinvestment has accumulated after a decade of
artificially low interest rates, which is going to result in serious
pain when the cycle inevitably turns – make no mistake about that. 今回の景気サイクルでC&Iローンも企業債務もともに対GDPでみると最悪なのは低金利のためだと私は分かっている。FEDや世界中の中央銀行が低金利政策をとったために、市場をゆがめmalinvestmentを増やし、通常の金利なら起こりえない馬鹿げた貸出判断をしてしまった。今後金利が上昇し景気サイクルが変わると、これらのmalinvestmentsが明らかになる（私のForbsの記事を読むが良い）。人工的に低金利を１０年も続けたため意にとんでもない数のmalinvestmentが積み上がっている、景気サイクルが変わると深刻な痛みを伴うだろうーー決してこの件で投資判断を間違ってはいけない。
最後の二段落だけ訳しておきます。 Stock Euphoria Stunts Gold Adam Hamilton April 19, 2019 3257 Words The great euphoria emanating from these near-record-high stock markets is breathtaking. Traders are again convinced stocks do nothing but rally indefinitely. That everything-is-awesome mindset has stunted gold’s latest upleg, since there’s no perceived need for prudently diversifying stock-heavy portfolios. But that psychology can change fast, as we saw a half-year ago. Gold investment roars back as stocks roll over. The word “euphoria” is widely misunderstood, often confused with “mania”. The latter is when stocks rocket vertically in blowoff tops, and is defined as “an excessively intense enthusiasm, interest, or desire”. The US stock markets certainly aren’t in a mania. At its latest high last Friday, the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market s...
