C&I ローンは危険域に入る

C&I Loans Enter The Danger Zone

by Tyler Durden

Thu, 03/14/2019 - 15:55

Authored by Jesse Colombo via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Commercial and industrial (C&I) loan activity is watched closely by economists to gauge the strength of the economy and estimate where we are in the business cycle. C&I loans are used to finance capital expenditures or increase the borrower’s working capital. The C&I loan cycle often takes up to a couple of years to turn positive after a recession, but provides even more confirmation that an economic expansion is underway. For example, the U.S. Great Recession officially ended in June 2009, but the C&I loan cycle didn’t turn positive until late-2010. C&I loans also help to warn when the economic cycle is approaching its end (as they are now).


C&I ローン（企業の設備投資や運転資金に利用するローン）動向がエコノミストに注視されている、経済の強さや景気サイクルで今どこにいるかを判断するためにだ。C＆Iローンは設備投資や運転資金に用いられる。景気後退後にC＆Iローンが上昇するのは２年ほどの遅れがある、しかしこういう状況のときには経済拡大が起きていることが確実だ。たとえば、米国のGreat Recessionは２００９年６月に終わったが、C&Iローンが増えるのは２０１０年遅くだった。C&Iローンはまた景気拡大終焉の警告ともなる（まさにいまがそうだ）。

Total outstanding U.S. commercial and industrial loans have increased by 92% in the current cycle, which surpasses the 80% increase during the mid-2000s cycle and the 88% increase during the late-1990s cycle:

今景気サイクルですでに米国C&Iローンは９２％も増えている、２０００年半ばのサイクルの８０％を超えており、１９９０年代遅くの増加８８％も超えている。


One way of determining when the C&I loan cycle (and, therefore, the overall economic cycle) is nearing its end is by charting total outstanding commercial and industrial loans as a percentage of GDP. When C&I loans are at 10% of GDP or higher (the “Danger Zone”), that is typically a sign that the cycle is long in the tooth and about to tip over into a recession. According to the chart below, recessions occurred shortly after C&I loans peaked within the “Danger Zone.” C&I loans are currently in that zone, which I see as further confirmation that we are in a Fed-driven economic bubble that will end badly.


C&Iローンのサイクルを見極める一つの方法によると（そして結局は景気サイクルをみるわけで）その終りが近い、対GDPで見るのだ。C&Iローンが対GDPで１０％を超えると（危険ゾーンだ）、こうなると拡大期が十分に長く景気後退期入りそうだと解る。下のチャートを見ると、C&Iローンが「危険域」に入った後にピークを超えると景気後退となっている。現在C&Iローンはこの危険域にあり、私の見立てではFED駆動の経済バブル状態にあり、悪い結末を迎えるだろう。

The current C&I loan cycle has been more powerful and longer-lasting than the prior two cycles because the Fed has held interest rates at record low levels for a record length of time. As the chart below shows, credit booms and bubbles form during low interest rate periods (low interest rates encourage borrowing):

現在のC&Iローンサイクルは過去二回のものよりも力強く長期に渡るものだった、というのも、FEDが金利を記録的低位にかつ記録的長期に渡り維持したためだ。下のチャートに示すが、与信ブームとバブルが見て取れる、低金利が借金しやすくするためだ：

The U.S. corporate debt market (which is mostly in the form of bonds instead loans) is telling a similar message as commercial and industrial loans, as I recently discussed. To summarize, ultra-low bond yields over the past decade have encouraged a corporate borrowing bubble that has also been funding the stock buyback boom. As a result, total outstanding U.S. corporate debt has increased by $3 trillion or 45% since the last peak in 2008. U.S. corporate debt is now at an all-time high of over 46% of GDP, which is even worse than the levels reached during the dot-com bubble and mid-2000s housing bubble.


米国企業債務市場（その大部分はローンではなく債権の形を取る）をみるとC&Iローンと同様のパターンを示している、私が最近議論したとおりだ。要約すると、過去十年の超低金利が企業の借金バブルを引き起こしこれが自社株買いブームの原資となってきた。結果として米国企業債務は＄３Tにも増え、２００８年のピークでは対GDPで４５％だったものが、今や４６％を超える過去最高だ、この値はドットコムバブルよりも２０００年台半ばの住宅バブルよりも悪いものだ。

I am fully aware that both C&I loans and corporate debt may reach a higher percentage of GDP in this cycle due to how low interest rates are. Still, it is important to be aware of the risks that are building up and not be complacent. When the Fed and other central banks hold interest rates at low levels, they create market distortions and encourage malinvestment or unwise lending decisions that would not otherwise occur in a normal interest rate environment. These malinvestments are revealed once interest rates are raised and the economic cycle turns (read my piece about this in Forbes). A tremendous amount of malinvestment has accumulated after a decade of artificially low interest rates, which is going to result in serious pain when the cycle inevitably turns – make no mistake about that.

今回の景気サイクルでC&Iローンも企業債務もともに対GDPでみると最悪なのは低金利のためだと私は分かっている。FEDや世界中の中央銀行が低金利政策をとったために、市場をゆがめmalinvestmentを増やし、通常の金利なら起こりえない馬鹿げた貸出判断をしてしまった。今後金利が上昇し景気サイクルが変わると、これらのmalinvestmentsが明らかになる（私のForbsの記事を読むが良い）。人工的に低金利を１０年も続けたため意にとんでもない数のmalinvestmentが積み上がっている、景気サイクルが変わると深刻な痛みを伴うだろうーー決してこの件で投資判断を間違ってはいけない。