Commercial and industrial (C&I) loan activity is watched
closely by economists to gauge the strength of the economy and estimate
where we are in the business cycle. C&I loans are used to
finance capital expenditures or increase the borrower’s working capital.
The C&I loan cycle often takes up to a couple of years to turn
positive after a recession, but provides even more confirmation that an
economic expansion is underway. For example, the U.S. Great Recession
officially ended in June 2009, but the C&I loan cycle didn’t turn
positive until late-2010. C&I loans also help to warn when the economic cycle is approaching its end (as they are now).
C&I ローン（企業の設備投資や運転資金に利用するローン）動向がエコノミストに注視されている、経済の強さや景気サイクルで今どこにいるかを判断するためにだ。C＆Iローンは設備投資や運転資金に用いられる。景気後退後にC＆Iローンが上昇するのは２年ほどの遅れがある、しかしこういう状況のときには経済拡大が起きていることが確実だ。たとえば、米国のGreat Recessionは２００９年６月に終わったが、C&Iローンが増えるのは２０１０年遅くだった。C&Iローンはまた景気拡大終焉の警告ともなる（まさにいまがそうだ）。
Total outstanding U.S. commercial and industrial loans have increased
by 92% in the current cycle, which surpasses the 80% increase during
the mid-2000s cycle and the 88% increase during the late-1990s cycle:
One way of determining when the C&I loan cycle (and,
therefore, the overall economic cycle) is nearing its end is by charting
total outstanding commercial and industrial loans as a percentage of
GDP. When C&I loans are at 10% of GDP or higher (the
“Danger Zone”), that is typically a sign that the cycle is long in the
tooth and about to tip over into a recession. According to the chart
below, recessions occurred shortly after C&I loans peaked within the “Danger Zone.” C&I
loans are currently in that zone, which I see as further confirmation
that we are in a Fed-driven economic bubble that will end badly.
The current C&I loan cycle has been more powerful and
longer-lasting than the prior two cycles because the Fed has held
interest rates at record low levels for a record length of time. As the
chart below shows, credit booms and bubbles form during low interest
rate periods (low interest rates encourage borrowing):
現在のC&Iローンサイクルは過去二回のものよりも力強く長期に渡るものだった、というのも、FEDが金利を記録的低位にかつ記録的長期に渡り維持したためだ。下のチャートに示すが、与信ブームとバブルが見て取れる、低金利が借金しやすくするためだ：
The U.S. corporate debt market (which is mostly in the form of bonds
instead loans) is telling a similar message as commercial and industrial
loans, as I recently discussed.
To summarize, ultra-low bond yields over the past decade have
encouraged a corporate borrowing bubble that has also been funding the
stock buyback boom. As a result, total outstanding U.S.
corporate debt has increased by $3 trillion or 45% since the last peak
in 2008. U.S. corporate debt is now at an all-time high of over 46% of
GDP, which is even worse than the levels reached during the dot-com bubble and mid-2000s housing bubble.
I am fully aware that both C&I loans and corporate debt
may reach a higher percentage of GDP in this cycle due to how low
interest rates are. Still, it is important to be aware of the risks that
are building up and not be complacent. When the Fed and other
central banks hold interest rates at low levels, they create market
distortions and encourage malinvestment or unwise lending decisions that
would not otherwise occur in a normal interest rate environment. These
malinvestments are revealed once interest rates are raised and the
economic cycle turns (read my piece about this in Forbes). A
tremendous amount of malinvestment has accumulated after a decade of
artificially low interest rates, which is going to result in serious
pain when the cycle inevitably turns – make no mistake about that. 今回の景気サイクルでC&Iローンも企業債務もともに対GDPでみると最悪なのは低金利のためだと私は分かっている。FEDや世界中の中央銀行が低金利政策をとったために、市場をゆがめmalinvestmentを増やし、通常の金利なら起こりえない馬鹿げた貸出判断をしてしまった。今後金利が上昇し景気サイクルが変わると、これらのmalinvestmentsが明らかになる（私のForbsの記事を読むが良い）。人工的に低金利を１０年も続けたため意にとんでもない数のmalinvestmentが積み上がっている、景気サイクルが変わると深刻な痛みを伴うだろうーー決してこの件で投資判断を間違ってはいけない。
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれました。 Big Silver-Stock Potential Adam Hamilton February 7, 2020 2689 Words The silver miners’ stocks are looking interesting. While they really lagged silver’s surge on gold’s bull-market-breakout rally last summer, their upleg since remains intact. Gold stocks’ own upleg peaked in early September. And silver itself remains wildly undervalued relative to gold, overdue to mean revert dramatically higher. When that happens during gold’s next upleg, the silver stocks have big potential to soar. Like the global silver market is vastly smaller than gold’s, silver stocks are a proportionally-little fraction of the precious-metals miners. As a small subset of a usually-ignored contrarian sector, the silver stocks often languish in obscurity. For decades there wasn’t even a silver-stock index, making sector analysis difficult. ...
大切な数段落だけ訳しておきます。 Silver Miners’ Q4’18 Fundamentals Adam Hamilton March 29, 2019 4073 Words The major silver miners have rallied higher on balance in recent months, enjoying a young upleg. That’s a welcome change after they suffered a miserable 2018. Times are tough for silver miners, since silver’s prices have languished near extreme lows relative to gold. That has forced many traditional silver miners to increasingly diversify into gold. The major silver miners’ recently-released Q4’18 results illuminate their struggles. Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surr...
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれておきます。 この記事は先週水曜締め切りで金曜に発行されたものです。 Gold Stocks’ Spring Rally 5 Adam Hamilton February 28, 2020 3225 Words Before their recent surge on gold regaining $1600, the gold stocks spent much of the past half-year or so largely drifting sideways to lower. That high consolidation really weighed on sentiment, with greed giving way to apathy. This sector normally tends to suffer a seasonal slump into mid-March, paving the way for gold stocks’ spring rally. That’s their second-strongest seasonal surge of the year running into early June. Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally c...
最後の２段落だけ訳を入れておきます。 Gold-Stock Bull Breakout! Adam Hamilton April 24, 2020 2845 Words The gold miners’ stocks surged to a major bull-market breakout this week! Powering decisively above their years-old secular resistance is a hugely-important technical event. It proves this gold-stock bull is alive and well, greatly improves sentiment, and puts this high-flying sector on countless more traders’ radars. New bull highs fuel self-feeding bullish psychology, as speculators and investors love chasing winners. The gold miners’ stocks are essentially leveraged plays on gold, since its price overwhelmingly drives their earnings and thus ultimately stock prices. So gold-stock bulls and bears mirror and amplify gold’s own major market cycles. Today’s secular gold bull began marching in mid-December 2015, birthed from choking despair. Gold stocks’ ...
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれておきます。 Gold Stocks Remain Cheap Adam Hamilton December 20, 2019 2800 Words The gold miners’ stocks have suffered a lackluster few months. That’s a disheartening contrast to their powerful summer upleg on gold’s bull-market breakout. While this healthy gold-stock correction likely isn’t over yet, the gold miners remain very undervalued relative to the metal they produce. That means they still have massive upside left in this secular gold bull. Sentiment just needs rebalancing before its next upleg. In recent months I’ve written a lot about gold’s correction, which is naturally driving a parallel one in the gold miners’ stocks. I’ve explained why speculators’ positioning in gold futures, gold’s dominant primary short-term driver, remains bearish with potential selling vastly outweighing likely buying. I’ve shown how shallow ...
