Commercial and industrial (C&I) loan activity is watched
closely by economists to gauge the strength of the economy and estimate
where we are in the business cycle. C&I loans are used to
finance capital expenditures or increase the borrower’s working capital.
The C&I loan cycle often takes up to a couple of years to turn
positive after a recession, but provides even more confirmation that an
economic expansion is underway. For example, the U.S. Great Recession
officially ended in June 2009, but the C&I loan cycle didn’t turn
positive until late-2010. C&I loans also help to warn when the economic cycle is approaching its end (as they are now).
C&I ローン（企業の設備投資や運転資金に利用するローン）動向がエコノミストに注視されている、経済の強さや景気サイクルで今どこにいるかを判断するためにだ。C＆Iローンは設備投資や運転資金に用いられる。景気後退後にC＆Iローンが上昇するのは２年ほどの遅れがある、しかしこういう状況のときには経済拡大が起きていることが確実だ。たとえば、米国のGreat Recessionは２００９年６月に終わったが、C&Iローンが増えるのは２０１０年遅くだった。C&Iローンはまた景気拡大終焉の警告ともなる（まさにいまがそうだ）。
Total outstanding U.S. commercial and industrial loans have increased
by 92% in the current cycle, which surpasses the 80% increase during
the mid-2000s cycle and the 88% increase during the late-1990s cycle:
One way of determining when the C&I loan cycle (and,
therefore, the overall economic cycle) is nearing its end is by charting
total outstanding commercial and industrial loans as a percentage of
GDP. When C&I loans are at 10% of GDP or higher (the
“Danger Zone”), that is typically a sign that the cycle is long in the
tooth and about to tip over into a recession. According to the chart
below, recessions occurred shortly after C&I loans peaked within the “Danger Zone.” C&I
loans are currently in that zone, which I see as further confirmation
that we are in a Fed-driven economic bubble that will end badly.
The current C&I loan cycle has been more powerful and
longer-lasting than the prior two cycles because the Fed has held
interest rates at record low levels for a record length of time. As the
chart below shows, credit booms and bubbles form during low interest
rate periods (low interest rates encourage borrowing):
現在のC&Iローンサイクルは過去二回のものよりも力強く長期に渡るものだった、というのも、FEDが金利を記録的低位にかつ記録的長期に渡り維持したためだ。下のチャートに示すが、与信ブームとバブルが見て取れる、低金利が借金しやすくするためだ：
The U.S. corporate debt market (which is mostly in the form of bonds
instead loans) is telling a similar message as commercial and industrial
loans, as I recently discussed.
To summarize, ultra-low bond yields over the past decade have
encouraged a corporate borrowing bubble that has also been funding the
stock buyback boom. As a result, total outstanding U.S.
corporate debt has increased by $3 trillion or 45% since the last peak
in 2008. U.S. corporate debt is now at an all-time high of over 46% of
GDP, which is even worse than the levels reached during the dot-com bubble and mid-2000s housing bubble.
I am fully aware that both C&I loans and corporate debt
may reach a higher percentage of GDP in this cycle due to how low
interest rates are. Still, it is important to be aware of the risks that
are building up and not be complacent. When the Fed and other
central banks hold interest rates at low levels, they create market
distortions and encourage malinvestment or unwise lending decisions that
would not otherwise occur in a normal interest rate environment. These
malinvestments are revealed once interest rates are raised and the
economic cycle turns (read my piece about this in Forbes). A
tremendous amount of malinvestment has accumulated after a decade of
artificially low interest rates, which is going to result in serious
pain when the cycle inevitably turns – make no mistake about that. 今回の景気サイクルでC&Iローンも企業債務もともに対GDPでみると最悪なのは低金利のためだと私は分かっている。FEDや世界中の中央銀行が低金利政策をとったために、市場をゆがめmalinvestmentを増やし、通常の金利なら起こりえない馬鹿げた貸出判断をしてしまった。今後金利が上昇し景気サイクルが変わると、これらのmalinvestmentsが明らかになる（私のForbsの記事を読むが良い）。人工的に低金利を１０年も続けたため意にとんでもない数のmalinvestmentが積み上がっている、景気サイクルが変わると深刻な痛みを伴うだろうーー決してこの件で投資判断を間違ってはいけない。
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれました。 Big Silver-Stock Potential Adam Hamilton February 7, 2020 2689 Words The silver miners’ stocks are looking interesting. While they really lagged silver’s surge on gold’s bull-market-breakout rally last summer, their upleg since remains intact. Gold stocks’ own upleg peaked in early September. And silver itself remains wildly undervalued relative to gold, overdue to mean revert dramatically higher. When that happens during gold’s next upleg, the silver stocks have big potential to soar. Like the global silver market is vastly smaller than gold’s, silver stocks are a proportionally-little fraction of the precious-metals miners. As a small subset of a usually-ignored contrarian sector, the silver stocks often languish in obscurity. For decades there wasn’t even a silver-stock index, making sector analysis difficult. ...
最後の二段落だけ訳をいれましょう。 Gold-Stock Head Fake? Adam Hamilton January 3, 2020 3174 Words Gold miners’ stocks blasted higher this past week, breaking out of their correction downtrend. Rapidly-improving psychology fueled such strong upside momentum that sector benchmarks are challenging months-old upleg highs. Most traders assume this is righteous, that gold stocks’ next upleg is starting to accelerate. But key indicators argue the contrarian side, that this breakout surge is a head fake within a correction. In early September, a major gold-stock upleg peaked after soaring higher on gold’s decisive bull-market breakout in late June. The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF, this sector’s leading benchmark and trading vehicle, had powered 76.2% higher over 11.8 months. It crested the same day gold’s own upleg did, hitting $30.95 on close. That ma...
最後の２段落だけ訳を入れておきます。 Silver Miners’ Q3’19 Fundamentals Adam Hamilton November 29, 2019 3726 Words The silver miners are finally enjoying higher prevailing silver prices, a great boon for this sector. Silver surged this past summer after gold’s first new bull-market highs in several years rekindled enthusiasm for precious metals. The long-neglected silver stocks rallied strongly with their metal. Their recently-reported Q3’19 results reveal whether those gains are justified, and how much fundamentals improved on higher silver. Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding pr...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう この記事のタイトルからパンチラインを想像できないでしょう、きっと。 ZeroHedgeらしいパンチラインです。 Do You Remember The Plaza Accord? by Tyler Durden Wed, 08/07/2019 - 15:05 With the world's central banks aggressively easing monetary policy overnight as analysts watch in stunned amazement as the world's interest rate careens ever faster toward zero, Trump is angrily watching the dollar as it keeps rising day after day, bringing us ever closer to the moment the US president declares on twitter a " national emergency " over the dollar and unleashes a major dollar devaluation. 昨夜世界中の中央銀行が積極的に緩和政策を勧めた、アナリストたちが驚くほどに急速にゼロ金利に向かっている、ドルが強くなるほどにトランプは怒りをあらわにする、これをみると、ドル減価の「非常事態」をトランプがツイートする日が近づいている。 Which is why it is not at all surprising that today Bank of America has published a report warning that FX intervention risks are rising, in...
