Something's not quite right... 何か全くおかしい・・・
With economic data disappointing en masse and US equity earnings
expectations plummeting, talking heads have one last leg left on the
stool of buy-and-hold - jobs, jobs, jobs! The unemployment rate (low),
participation rate (people coming back into the workforce), wage growth
(rising at fastest pace in 10 years), initial jobless claims (back near
multi-decade lows), and JOLTS (more jobs offered than people available).
So, why are continuing jobless claims surging in a not-noisy manner higher for the last six months? では、どうして失業保険申請が６か月連続で増え続けるのだろう、これはノイズではない？
We have seen this before...
以前も同様のことがあった・・・
And in fact 2019 is now the worst start to a year for continuing claims since 2009...
How Are Gold And Money Supply Related? by Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2020 - 13:00 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, M2 Money Supply is surging. Will gold follow? M2マネーサプライが急増している。ゴールドはこれを追従するだろうか？ Let's investigate an alleged relationship between gold and M2, a measure of money supply in the US. よく言われるM2（米国のマネーサプライ指標）とゴールドの関係について調べてみよう。 "There’s a clear correlation between the annual growth rate in M2 money supply and the price of the yellow metal. " 「M2の年率増加速度とゴールド価格の間には明らかな相関がある。」 Clear Correlation? 明らかな相関？ The Tweet claims something different than my lead chart depicts. So let's investigate the above idea in other time frames. このツイートの主張は私が示す最初のチャートが示すものとは異なる。というわけでこのtweetの主張を別の時間フレームで見てみよう。 Gold vs Rate of Change in M2 Money Supply ゴールド vs M2マネーサプライの変化率 If we look at longer time frames, the rate of increase in M2 theory falls flat on its face....
Is The Stock Market As Confused As You Are About A Recession? Written by Lance Roberts | Apr, 1, 2019 Last week, Barron’s ran an article entitled “The Stock Market Is Just As Confused About A Potential Recession As You Are?” To wit: 先週バロンズにこういう記事が掲載された「株式市場は景気後退を予感させるほどに混乱しているだろうか？」見てみよう： “Investors have long used where we are in the economic cycle to decide which stocks to buy and sell. New research from Nomura’s Joseph Mezrich flips that on its head by showing how investors can use stock performance to help determine where we are in the cycle. Too bad the market is sending mixed messages right now.” 長らく投資家は現在景気サイクルのどこに居るかを見てこの株式を売るか買うかを判断してきた。野村證券のJoseph Mezrichの最近の研究では、これが逆さで、投資家は株式のパフォーマンスを見て今景気サイクルのどこにいるかを判断している。最悪なことに現在相場は悪化改善混在のメッセージを送っている。」 But let’s be clear here; no one wants the party to end. So, despite a struggling stock market over the last year, slowing economic growth, and a collapsing yield curve, there are s...
