On the verge of the 2001 recession, in February 2001, the real-time
data showed GDP growth declining to 1.1% (green line). But with the Fed
cutting rates, the S&P 500 saw a one-and-a-half-month 19% spurt in
April-May, even as the recession tightened its grip.
And in November 2007, on the cusp of the Great Recession, real-time
data showed GDP growth surging to 4.9% (red line). Only in the years
following the recession did revisions cut it down to less than half that
initial reading.
The point is that, at least in real time, the strength of GDP growth
does not tell us whether a recession is about to hit. It is only long
after the fact, following repeated revisions, that the GDP data becomes
more informative about the timing of the recession.
While the current cycle’s recent 2.6% GDP growth print – tracking
right in-between the 2001 and 2007 trajectories – was well received by
many economic prognosticators (blue line), by no means does it rule out a
looming recession.
In principle, GDP is a coincident indicator of the economy, with no real predictive value. But because more than half of
the initial GDP estimate is based on survey data and the extrapolation
of recent trends, the initial vintages of GDP are often misleading,
especially around business cycle turning points.
This helps explain why it is often only well after a recession has
begun that revisions to GDP data show an economic contraction in
progress. Until then, the consensus may be wrongly persuaded that the
coast is clear.
This is a key reason why good leading indexes are so valuable. Unlike
GDP, ECRI’s leading indexes avoid major revisions over time, most
crucially with regard to their cyclical timing and directional calls.
Consequently, we were able to call the 2001 recession and Great
Recession on a timely basis.
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
Productivity: What It Is & Why It Matters Written by Michael Lebowitz | Jan, 16, 2019 The Kansas City Federal Reserve posted the Twitter comment and graph below highlighting a very important economic theme. Although productivity is a basic building block of economic analysis, it is one that few economists and even fewer investors seem to appreciate. Kansas 市FEDがツイッターにコメントを投稿した、そのグラフを下に示す、とても重要な経済テーマだ。経済分析においては生産性というのはとても重要な要素だが、ほとんどのエコノミストがこの件に言及しない、投資家は更にこのことを忘れ去っている。 The Kansas City Fed’s tweet is 100% correct in that wages are stagnating in large part due to low productivity growth. As the second chart shows, it is not only wages. The post financial-crisis economic expansion, despite being within months of a record for duration, is by far the weakest since WWII. Kansas City FEDのツイートは１００％正しい、給与が停滞している原因の主要因は生産性成長が低いからだ。二番目のチャートを見ても判るように、成長鈍化は給与だけではない。あの金融危機後の経済拡大は、第二次世界大戦後で記録的長期の拡大期間だが、とても弱い拡大だ。 Productivity growth over the last 350+ years is ...
このブログ左の参考図書の一つがHoward Marksの本です。初めてこの本を読んだ時、管理人は目からウロコが取れた思いでした。 Howard Marks: "We Had One Of The Most Violent Downdrafts I Had Ever Seen" by Tyler Durden Mon, 01/14/2019 - 09:28 Right around the market peaked on September 2018, Oaktree's iconic founder Howard Marks published a letter to investors in which he warned that the market conditions made it "a time for caution", to wit: 市場がピークを迎えた２０１８年９月ころ、Oaktreeの伝説的創業者 Howard Marksが投資家向けレターを発行した、この中で市場環境は「注意すべき時だ」と警告した、見てみよう： I’m absolutely not saying people shouldn’t invest today, or shouldn’t invest in debt. Oaktree’s mantra recently has been, and continues to be, “move forward, but with caution.” The outlook is not so bad, and asset prices are not so high, that one should be in cash or near-cash. The penalty in terms of likely opportunity cost is just too great to ...
コメント欄に詳しい解説が書き込まれています。 英語でいうところの「buy back」と「insider buy」は異なる概念です。日本語の記事でどちらも自社株買いとされていることがあり、これを混同すると意味不明の記事になってしまいます。 The Great Stock Buyback Debate Written by Lance Roberts | May, 2, 2019 I recently wrote about stock buybacks in our weekly newsletter. However, a recent report from Axios noted that for 2019, IT companies are again on pace to spend the most on stock buybacks this year, as the total looks set to pass 2018’s $1.085 trillion record total. 最近私は週間記事で自社株買いに関して議論した。しかしながら、Axiosの最近の2019報告書によると、IT企業は再び今年その規模を増やしている、２０１８年は＄１．０８５Tと記録的規模だったが、今年はこれを超えそうだ。 “By the numbers: Companies so far have spent $272 billion on buybacks, data compiled by Mike Schoonover, COO of Catalyst Funds, for Axios shows. 「数値を見る限り：企業は＄２７２Bをすでに自社株買いに費やした、数値の解釈はMike Schoonoverによるものだ、彼はCatalyst FundsのCOOだ、Axiosがデータを示す。 Between the lines: The amount of spending on buybacks announced by companies in the IT sector has fallen significantly this year as other i...
