On the verge of the 2001 recession, in February 2001, the real-time
data showed GDP growth declining to 1.1% (green line). But with the Fed
cutting rates, the S&P 500 saw a one-and-a-half-month 19% spurt in
April-May, even as the recession tightened its grip.
And in November 2007, on the cusp of the Great Recession, real-time
data showed GDP growth surging to 4.9% (red line). Only in the years
following the recession did revisions cut it down to less than half that
initial reading.
The point is that, at least in real time, the strength of GDP growth
does not tell us whether a recession is about to hit. It is only long
after the fact, following repeated revisions, that the GDP data becomes
more informative about the timing of the recession.
While the current cycle’s recent 2.6% GDP growth print – tracking
right in-between the 2001 and 2007 trajectories – was well received by
many economic prognosticators (blue line), by no means does it rule out a
looming recession.
In principle, GDP is a coincident indicator of the economy, with no real predictive value. But because more than half of
the initial GDP estimate is based on survey data and the extrapolation
of recent trends, the initial vintages of GDP are often misleading,
especially around business cycle turning points.
This helps explain why it is often only well after a recession has
begun that revisions to GDP data show an economic contraction in
progress. Until then, the consensus may be wrongly persuaded that the
coast is clear.
This is a key reason why good leading indexes are so valuable. Unlike
GDP, ECRI’s leading indexes avoid major revisions over time, most
crucially with regard to their cyclical timing and directional calls.
Consequently, we were able to call the 2001 recession and Great
Recession on a timely basis.
How Are Gold And Money Supply Related? by Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2020 - 13:00 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, M2 Money Supply is surging. Will gold follow? M2マネーサプライが急増している。ゴールドはこれを追従するだろうか？ Let's investigate an alleged relationship between gold and M2, a measure of money supply in the US. よく言われるM2（米国のマネーサプライ指標）とゴールドの関係について調べてみよう。 "There’s a clear correlation between the annual growth rate in M2 money supply and the price of the yellow metal. " 「M2の年率増加速度とゴールド価格の間には明らかな相関がある。」 Clear Correlation? 明らかな相関？ The Tweet claims something different than my lead chart depicts. So let's investigate the above idea in other time frames. このツイートの主張は私が示す最初のチャートが示すものとは異なる。というわけでこのtweetの主張を別の時間フレームで見てみよう。 Gold vs Rate of Change in M2 Money Supply ゴールド vs M2マネーサプライの変化率 If we look at longer time frames, the rate of increase in M2 theory falls flat on its face....
Is The Stock Market As Confused As You Are About A Recession? Written by Lance Roberts | Apr, 1, 2019 Last week, Barron’s ran an article entitled “The Stock Market Is Just As Confused About A Potential Recession As You Are?” To wit: 先週バロンズにこういう記事が掲載された「株式市場は景気後退を予感させるほどに混乱しているだろうか？」見てみよう： “Investors have long used where we are in the economic cycle to decide which stocks to buy and sell. New research from Nomura’s Joseph Mezrich flips that on its head by showing how investors can use stock performance to help determine where we are in the cycle. Too bad the market is sending mixed messages right now.” 長らく投資家は現在景気サイクルのどこに居るかを見てこの株式を売るか買うかを判断してきた。野村證券のJoseph Mezrichの最近の研究では、これが逆さで、投資家は株式のパフォーマンスを見て今景気サイクルのどこにいるかを判断している。最悪なことに現在相場は悪化改善混在のメッセージを送っている。」 But let’s be clear here; no one wants the party to end. So, despite a struggling stock market over the last year, slowing economic growth, and a collapsing yield curve, there are s...
