As Goldman's Andrew Tilton (Chief Asia Economist) suggested:
ゴールドマンサックスのAndrew Tilton(アジアエコノミスト主任)はこう示唆する:
"There are reasons to be concerned [that easing is becoming less effective].
Local government officials who typically implement infrastructure
spending and other forms of stimulus are facing conflicting pressures.
The emphasis in recent years on reducing off-balance-sheet borrowing,
selecting only higher-value projects, and eliminating corruption has
made local officials more cautious. But at the same time, the
authorities are now encouraging local officials to do more to support
growth, like accelerate infrastructure projects. President Xi himself
recently acknowledged the incentive problems and administrative burdens
facing local officials."
And Nomura's Ting Lu has an explanation for why China stimulus i snot working... Chinese easing- / stimulus- escalation being a likely
requirement for any sort of “reflation” theme to work beyond a tactical
trade:
そしてノムラのTing Luはこう解説する、どうして中国の刺激策が機能しないかについて・・。中国の緩和/刺激策拡大にはある種の「リフレーション」が必要で戦略的な功罪が伴う:
yes, more RRR cuts are coming eventually (a better way for Chinese
banks to obtain liquidity vs borrowing from MLF or TMLF, bc it’s cheaper
and more stable)... ...but that the timing of such a cut is primarily dependent on the Chinese stock market, asthe
“re-bubbling” happening real-time in Chinese Equities (CSI 300 +26.8%
YTD; SHCOMP +24.4%; SZCOMP +34.0%) likely then constrains the room and
pace of Beijing’s policy easing / stimulus
This “Chinese Equities rally effectively holding further RRR cuts
hostage” then could become a serious “fly in the ointment” for near-term
/ tactical “reflation” (or bear-steepening) themes, as Q2 is on-pace to
see a significant liquidity shortage.
Ting estimates the liquidity gap could reach ~ RMB 1.7T in Q2 due to the following factors:
The size of the upcoming MLF maturities (est to be ~RMB 1.2T in Q2); 今後のMLF中期債権満期規模(Q2にRMB1.2Tと見積もられている);
The size and pace of (both central and local) government bond issuance (Nomura ests a target of ~ RMB 1T for Q2); 中央地方政府債券発行の規模とペース(ノムラはQ2にRMB1Tと見積もる);
Tax season effects; and 納税時期効果;そして
The shortage of money supply through the PBoC’s FX purchases 中国人民銀行の為替取引でのマネーサプライ不足
CHINA’S COMING Q2 LIQUIDITY-SHORTAGE:
So, simply put, China is merely refilling a rapidly leaking bucket of liquidity, as opposed to sloshing more into the bath of global risk - even if Chinese stocks were embracing it.
多量のオピオイドを米国に送り込み、米国で深刻な麻薬中毒問題を引き起こしています。現代版「阿片戦争」です。あのトヨタ初の女性取締役もオピオイド中毒で逮捕解任されましたよね。 US Is Dependent On China For Almost 80% Of Its Medicine by Tyler Durden Fri, 05/31/2019 - 12:55 Experts are warning that the U.S. has become way too reliant on China for all our medicine , our pain killers, antibiotics, vitamins, aspirin and many cancer treatment medicine. 専門家はこう警告する、米国はすべての医薬品、痛み止め、抗生物質、ビタミン、アスピリン、各種抗がん剤で、中国依存度が高すぎる。 Fox Business reports that according to FDA estimates at least 80 percent of active ingredients found in all of America’s medicine come from abroad, primarily from China . And it’s not just the ingredients, China wants to become the world’s dominant generic drug maker. So far Chinese companies are making generic for everything from high blood pressure to chemotherapy drugs. 90 percent of America’s prescriptions a...
日本と同じくPOMOになる公算が大きいとは思いますが、どうでしょうね。 米国大統領選挙の勝者と11月投票日前数ヶ月の株価の動向には9割以上の相関があります。はっきり言えば、公約とか主義主張には無関係です :) 。この時期株価を維持・上昇すると現職政党勝利、株価が下落すると挑戦政党勝利となります。熱心な民主党員活動家である前FED議長イエレンは頻繁に口先介入をしましたが、量的緩和再開まで踏み込めず、4年前の秋に株価が下落し、トランプ勝利となりました。株価と大統領選挙の相関をトランプは熟知しています、4年前には株価が下落するようしきりと口先介入していました。今年は11月まで株価を維持できるかどうか?どうでしょう。 Mark Your Calendar: Next Week The Fed's Liquidity Drain Begins by Tyler Durden Fri, 01/03/2020 - 14:54 What goes up, must come down, at least in theory. 上昇があれば、その後に下落が伴う、少なくとも理論上ではそうだ。 Ever since the start of October when the Fed launched QE4 - or as some still call it "Not QE" - in response to the Sept repo crisis, figuring out the market has been pretty simple: if the Fed's balance sheet goes up so does the S&P500, and vice versa. 10月にFEDがQE4を始めて以来ーー「Not QE」という人もいるがーー9月のレポ危機に対応したものだが、相場はとても単純になった:FEDがバランス...
先週の記事です。最後の2段落だけ訳をいれておきます。 Gold’s Peculiar Surge Adam Hamilton February 21, 2020 3246 Words Gold is enjoying an awesome week, surging back above $1600 for the first time in nearly 7 years! That big round psychologically-heavy level is really catching traders’ attention, great improving sentiment. Yet this recent gold surge has proven peculiar. Unlike normal rallies, the buying driving this one largely hasn’t come from gold’s usual primary drivers. The stealth buying behind this surge may impair its staying power. This Tuesday gold surged 1.2% higher to close near $1602. It hadn’t crested $1600 on close since way back in late March 2013 fully 6.9 years ago! Long-time gold traders shudder at the dark spring which followed. Within less than several weeks after that last $1600+ close, gold plummeted 16.2%. Most of that came in ...
What Could Go Wrong? The Fed's Warns On Corporate Debt by Tyler Durden Thu, 05/09/2019 - 11:44 Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, “So, if the housing market isn’t going to affect the economy, and low interest rates are now a permanent fixture in our society, and there is NO risk in doing anything because we can financially engineer our way out it – then why are all these companies building up departments betting on what could be the biggest crash the world has ever seen? What is more evident is what isn’t being said. Banks aren’t saying “we are gearing up just in case something bad happens.” Quite the contrary – they are gearing up for WHEN it happens. When the turn does come, it will be unlike anything we have ever seen before. The scale of it could be considerable because of the size of some...