As Goldman's Andrew Tilton (Chief Asia Economist) suggested:
ゴールドマンサックスのAndrew Tilton(アジアエコノミスト主任)はこう示唆する:
"There are reasons to be concerned [that easing is becoming less effective].
Local government officials who typically implement infrastructure
spending and other forms of stimulus are facing conflicting pressures.
The emphasis in recent years on reducing off-balance-sheet borrowing,
selecting only higher-value projects, and eliminating corruption has
made local officials more cautious. But at the same time, the
authorities are now encouraging local officials to do more to support
growth, like accelerate infrastructure projects. President Xi himself
recently acknowledged the incentive problems and administrative burdens
facing local officials."
And Nomura's Ting Lu has an explanation for why China stimulus i snot working... Chinese easing- / stimulus- escalation being a likely
requirement for any sort of “reflation” theme to work beyond a tactical
trade:
そしてノムラのTing Luはこう解説する、どうして中国の刺激策が機能しないかについて・・。中国の緩和/刺激策拡大にはある種の「リフレーション」が必要で戦略的な功罪が伴う:
yes, more RRR cuts are coming eventually (a better way for Chinese
banks to obtain liquidity vs borrowing from MLF or TMLF, bc it’s cheaper
and more stable)... ...but that the timing of such a cut is primarily dependent on the Chinese stock market, asthe
“re-bubbling” happening real-time in Chinese Equities (CSI 300 +26.8%
YTD; SHCOMP +24.4%; SZCOMP +34.0%) likely then constrains the room and
pace of Beijing’s policy easing / stimulus
This “Chinese Equities rally effectively holding further RRR cuts
hostage” then could become a serious “fly in the ointment” for near-term
/ tactical “reflation” (or bear-steepening) themes, as Q2 is on-pace to
see a significant liquidity shortage.
Ting estimates the liquidity gap could reach ~ RMB 1.7T in Q2 due to the following factors:
The size of the upcoming MLF maturities (est to be ~RMB 1.2T in Q2); 今後のMLF中期債権満期規模(Q2にRMB1.2Tと見積もられている);
The size and pace of (both central and local) government bond issuance (Nomura ests a target of ~ RMB 1T for Q2); 中央地方政府債券発行の規模とペース(ノムラはQ2にRMB1Tと見積もる);
Tax season effects; and 納税時期効果;そして
The shortage of money supply through the PBoC’s FX purchases 中国人民銀行の為替取引でのマネーサプライ不足
CHINA’S COMING Q2 LIQUIDITY-SHORTAGE:
So, simply put, China is merely refilling a rapidly leaking bucket of liquidity, as opposed to sloshing more into the bath of global risk - even if Chinese stocks were embracing it.
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう この長文記事をRay Dalioが発表し、ゴールドは$1400から$1420へと急騰しました。GLD保持高に変化はないのでたぶん先物ポジションが進んでいます。 Ray Dalio Warns A "New Paradigm" Is Coming: "Buy Gold, Sell Stocks" by Tyler Durden Wed, 07/17/2019 - 14:44 Authored by Ray Dalio via LinkedIn, One of my investment principles is: 私の投資原則はこういうものだ: Identify the paradigm you’re in, examine if and how it is unsustainable, and visualize how the paradigm shift will transpire when that which is unsustainable stops. 現在のパラダイムを認識し、それがどの程度持続可能かどうか判断する、そしてパラダイムシフトがどのように起きるか、そしてその着地点を思い描く。 Over my roughly 50 years of being a global macro investor, I have observed there to be relatively long of periods (about 10 years) in which the markets and market relationships operate in a certain way (which I call “paradig...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ2週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
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