When
it comes to the growth dynamo behind the global economy, nobody can
match the US consumer - not even China: accounting for trillions in
annual spending, the US consumer, who represents roughly 70% of US GDP,
is also responsible for roughly 17% of global GDP, slightly ahead of the entire country of China.
世界経済の成長エンジンを議論する時、米国消費以上のものはないーー中国ではない：年間トリリオンドルを米国消費者は使っている、これが米国GDPの７０％、そして世界GDPの１７％を占める、中国全GDPよりも大きい。
However, as recent economic data has shown, the future of the US
consumer is suddenly looking ominously cloudy, for two big reasons:
rising interest rates, which as Deutsche Bank notes are "beginning to
bite" as observed in the number of working hours in sector selling big
ticket items...
... and increasingly tighter loan terms, which coupled with softer
loan demand, means that the purchasing power of the US consumer is
suddenly facing a very troubling air pocket.
One driver behind the sudden drop in loan demand may also be the most
obvious one: interest rates on credit cards have soared to the highest
in over two decades...
... while auto loan interest rates are now the highest since 2011,
and rapidly rising, making the average auto loan payment the highest on
record as discussed recently.
It's not just credit cards and auto loans: the aggregate household
interest payment has soared at a 15% Y/Y rate. Virtually every prior
time when interest payments spiked this much, a recession promptly
followed.
And while not quite at "redline levels" just yet, interest payments
as a share of total household spending has jumped to the highest level
since the financial crisis.
そしてまだ「赤線レベル」にはなっていないが、家計に占める利払い率は金融危機以来で最高レベルだ。
Meanwhile, as US purchasing power shrinks, so do intentions to purchase both cars...
それと同時に、米国の購買力は縮小している、自動車と・・・・
... and houses.
・・・・そして住宅だ。
And while many legacy economists and pundits have said to ignore the
dismal December retail sales print, considering the collapse in spending
intentions for most other goods and services, it is only a matter of
time before consumer spending slides into recession (and the latest
retail sales print is confirmed as the accurate one).
With rates rising, and with ever greater monthly payments, both credit card...
金利上昇に伴い、クレジットカードの毎月の支払いが大きくなり・・・・
... and auto delinquencies are surging.
・・・自動車ローン返済遅延が上昇している。
And so, with the credit cycle having peaked and absent rate cuts (and
QE) by the Fed, only set to make life for US consumers even more
difficult, it is just a matter of time before the economic slowdown
follows.
As usually happens, one generation is especially exposed to the
upcoming period of economic weakness: the millennials, whose delinquency
rate is already the highest among all age cohorts.
Finally, while all of the above have yet to hit the US economy where
GDP recently printed at a solid 2.6% in Q4, in Q1 GDP is expected to
plunge below 1% (Atlanta Fed has it at a paltry 0.3%); once that
happens, US small business confidence which is already plunging at the
fastest rate since the financial crisis after having soared higher after
the Trump election, will crater sending the US economy into a steep
recession if not worse.
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう この長文記事をRay Dalioが発表し、ゴールドは＄１４００から＄１４２０へと急騰しました。GLD保持高に変化はないのでたぶん先物ポジションが進んでいます。 Ray Dalio Warns A "New Paradigm" Is Coming: "Buy Gold, Sell Stocks" by Tyler Durden Wed, 07/17/2019 - 14:44 Authored by Ray Dalio via LinkedIn, One of my investment principles is: 私の投資原則はこういうものだ： Identify the paradigm you’re in, examine if and how it is unsustainable, and visualize how the paradigm shift will transpire when that which is unsustainable stops. 現在のパラダイムを認識し、それがどの程度持続可能かどうか判断する、そしてパラダイムシフトがどのように起きるか、そしてその着地点を思い描く。 Over my roughly 50 years of being a global macro investor, I have observed there to be relatively long of periods (about 10 years) in which the markets and market relationships operate in a certain way (which I call “paradig...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
How Are Gold And Money Supply Related? by Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2020 - 13:00 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, M2 Money Supply is surging. Will gold follow? M2マネーサプライが急増している。ゴールドはこれを追従するだろうか？ Let's investigate an alleged relationship between gold and M2, a measure of money supply in the US. よく言われるM2（米国のマネーサプライ指標）とゴールドの関係について調べてみよう。 "There’s a clear correlation between the annual growth rate in M2 money supply and the price of the yellow metal. " 「M2の年率増加速度とゴールド価格の間には明らかな相関がある。」 Clear Correlation? 明らかな相関？ The Tweet claims something different than my lead chart depicts. So let's investigate the above idea in other time frames. このツイートの主張は私が示す最初のチャートが示すものとは異なる。というわけでこのtweetの主張を別の時間フレームで見てみよう。 Gold vs Rate of Change in M2 Money Supply ゴールド vs M2マネーサプライの変化率 If we look at longer time frames, the rate of increase in M2 theory falls flat on its face....
