When
it comes to the growth dynamo behind the global economy, nobody can
match the US consumer - not even China: accounting for trillions in
annual spending, the US consumer, who represents roughly 70% of US GDP,
is also responsible for roughly 17% of global GDP, slightly ahead of the entire country of China.
世界経済の成長エンジンを議論する時、米国消費以上のものはないーー中国ではない：年間トリリオンドルを米国消費者は使っている、これが米国GDPの７０％、そして世界GDPの１７％を占める、中国全GDPよりも大きい。
However, as recent economic data has shown, the future of the US
consumer is suddenly looking ominously cloudy, for two big reasons:
rising interest rates, which as Deutsche Bank notes are "beginning to
bite" as observed in the number of working hours in sector selling big
ticket items...
... and increasingly tighter loan terms, which coupled with softer
loan demand, means that the purchasing power of the US consumer is
suddenly facing a very troubling air pocket.
One driver behind the sudden drop in loan demand may also be the most
obvious one: interest rates on credit cards have soared to the highest
in over two decades...
... while auto loan interest rates are now the highest since 2011,
and rapidly rising, making the average auto loan payment the highest on
record as discussed recently.
It's not just credit cards and auto loans: the aggregate household
interest payment has soared at a 15% Y/Y rate. Virtually every prior
time when interest payments spiked this much, a recession promptly
followed.
And while not quite at "redline levels" just yet, interest payments
as a share of total household spending has jumped to the highest level
since the financial crisis.
そしてまだ「赤線レベル」にはなっていないが、家計に占める利払い率は金融危機以来で最高レベルだ。
Meanwhile, as US purchasing power shrinks, so do intentions to purchase both cars...
それと同時に、米国の購買力は縮小している、自動車と・・・・
... and houses.
・・・・そして住宅だ。
And while many legacy economists and pundits have said to ignore the
dismal December retail sales print, considering the collapse in spending
intentions for most other goods and services, it is only a matter of
time before consumer spending slides into recession (and the latest
retail sales print is confirmed as the accurate one).
With rates rising, and with ever greater monthly payments, both credit card...
金利上昇に伴い、クレジットカードの毎月の支払いが大きくなり・・・・
... and auto delinquencies are surging.
・・・自動車ローン返済遅延が上昇している。
And so, with the credit cycle having peaked and absent rate cuts (and
QE) by the Fed, only set to make life for US consumers even more
difficult, it is just a matter of time before the economic slowdown
follows.
As usually happens, one generation is especially exposed to the
upcoming period of economic weakness: the millennials, whose delinquency
rate is already the highest among all age cohorts.
Finally, while all of the above have yet to hit the US economy where
GDP recently printed at a solid 2.6% in Q4, in Q1 GDP is expected to
plunge below 1% (Atlanta Fed has it at a paltry 0.3%); once that
happens, US small business confidence which is already plunging at the
fastest rate since the financial crisis after having soared higher after
the Trump election, will crater sending the US economy into a steep
recession if not worse.
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Junk Bond Bubble In Pictures: Deflation Up Next by Tyler Durden Fri, 07/19/2019 - 14:37 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, The widely discussed "everything bubble" is, in reality, a corporate junk bond bubble on steroids sponsored by the Fed ... 幅広く議論されている「everything bubble」は実際に企業ジャンク・ボンドバブルにも言えることであり、これはFEDによりドーピング注入されている・・・ The highest grade AAA corporate bonds yield 2.75%. BBB-rated corporate bonds, just one step above junk, 3.5%. BB-rated bonds yield just 4.28%. 最高級ランクAAA企業債権の金利は２．７５％だ。あとひとランク悪化でジャンク・ボンド入りするBBB債権金利は３．５％。BB格付け債権の金利でもわずか４．２８％でしかない。 Corporate Bond Spreads 企業債権金利のスプレッド The spread between Prime AAA bonds and lower-medium grade bonds (see chart below) is just 0.77 percentage points. 最上位AAA債権と低中ランク債権のスプレッドがわずか０．７７％しかない。 The spre...
Gold Stocks Surge Higher Adam Hamilton February 22, 2019 2932 Words The gold miners’ stocks surged strongly this week, blasting to new upleg highs. The mounting gains are naturally driving more interest in this small contrarian sector, shifting sentiment towards bullish. Despite their accelerating rally, gold stocks still remain fairly low technically and deeply undervalued relative to gold. So their strengthening upleg likely has plenty of room to run considerably higher in coming months. 今週金鉱株は力強く上昇し新高値となった。上昇が積み上がりこの小さなコントラリアンセクターはさらに注目を集めている、これが心理を強気なものにする。ラリーが加速するが、金鉱株はテクニカル的にはまだ安値で、対ゴールドでとても過小評価されている。というわけで力強い上昇は今後数ヶ月まだかなりな上昇余地がある。 The gold miners’ stocks are ultimately leveraged plays on gold, which overwhelmingly drives their profits. The much-maligned yellow metal has enjoyed a strong upleg since mid-August, when record gold-futures s...
結局、中国は隣国日本で２０年前に起きたことを学んでいなかったということでしょう、というかどの国もどの政府も十分成熟するまでは「わかっちゃいるけどやめられない」ということでしょうね、きっと。 Spooked By Apple? Wait ‘Til China’s Bubble Bursts Written by Jesse Colombo | Jan, 3, 2019 Apple stock plunged nearly 10% on Thursday after the company cut its revenue forecast due to slowing iPhone sales in China. Apple’s woes dragged U.S. stock indices lower by more than 2% as fears of a more extensive China-driven slowdown spread. アップルの株価は火曜に約１０％下落した、同社が中国でのiPhone売上原則を予想したためだ。アップルの弱さが米国株式指数を２％以上押し下げた、中国主導でさらなる原則が広がるのではという懸念からだ。 From the New York Times : ニューヨークタイムスによると： For years, no matter what was happening elsewhere, global companies bet billions upon billions of dollars that China’s consumers would keep spending money. 長年、他国で何が起きようとも多国籍企業は中国消費は巨額を維持することに賭けてきた。 Now, just when the world economy could use their financial firepower, they are no longer so quick to open their wallets. 今や、世界経済が金融弾薬を用いてももはや彼らの財布を緩めることはできない。 The latest sign of a slowdown in...
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれておきました。 Fed’s Risky QE4 Stock Ramp Adam Hamilton January 31, 2020 3567 Words The US stock markets dramatically surged mostly in a straight line since mid-October. This extraordinary rally started when the Federal Reserve announced it would resume expanding its balance sheet for the first time in years. The deluge of new liquidity from that quantitative-easing bond buying has again acted like rocket fuel for stock markets. After shooting vertically they are in real trouble when the Fed pulls back. In early October the flagship US S&P 500 stock index (SPX) slumped to 2888. That was a mild 4.6% pullback from late July’s latest record high. The SPX was still having a great year though, up 15.2% year-to-date at that point thanks to extreme Fed easing . After the SPX had plunged 19.8% mostly in Q4’18 in a severe near-bear cor...
