When
it comes to the growth dynamo behind the global economy, nobody can
match the US consumer - not even China: accounting for trillions in
annual spending, the US consumer, who represents roughly 70% of US GDP,
is also responsible for roughly 17% of global GDP, slightly ahead of the entire country of China.
世界経済の成長エンジンを議論する時、米国消費以上のものはないーー中国ではない：年間トリリオンドルを米国消費者は使っている、これが米国GDPの７０％、そして世界GDPの１７％を占める、中国全GDPよりも大きい。
However, as recent economic data has shown, the future of the US
consumer is suddenly looking ominously cloudy, for two big reasons:
rising interest rates, which as Deutsche Bank notes are "beginning to
bite" as observed in the number of working hours in sector selling big
ticket items...
... and increasingly tighter loan terms, which coupled with softer
loan demand, means that the purchasing power of the US consumer is
suddenly facing a very troubling air pocket.
One driver behind the sudden drop in loan demand may also be the most
obvious one: interest rates on credit cards have soared to the highest
in over two decades...
... while auto loan interest rates are now the highest since 2011,
and rapidly rising, making the average auto loan payment the highest on
record as discussed recently.
It's not just credit cards and auto loans: the aggregate household
interest payment has soared at a 15% Y/Y rate. Virtually every prior
time when interest payments spiked this much, a recession promptly
followed.
And while not quite at "redline levels" just yet, interest payments
as a share of total household spending has jumped to the highest level
since the financial crisis.
そしてまだ「赤線レベル」にはなっていないが、家計に占める利払い率は金融危機以来で最高レベルだ。
Meanwhile, as US purchasing power shrinks, so do intentions to purchase both cars...
それと同時に、米国の購買力は縮小している、自動車と・・・・
... and houses.
・・・・そして住宅だ。
And while many legacy economists and pundits have said to ignore the
dismal December retail sales print, considering the collapse in spending
intentions for most other goods and services, it is only a matter of
time before consumer spending slides into recession (and the latest
retail sales print is confirmed as the accurate one).
With rates rising, and with ever greater monthly payments, both credit card...
金利上昇に伴い、クレジットカードの毎月の支払いが大きくなり・・・・
... and auto delinquencies are surging.
・・・自動車ローン返済遅延が上昇している。
And so, with the credit cycle having peaked and absent rate cuts (and
QE) by the Fed, only set to make life for US consumers even more
difficult, it is just a matter of time before the economic slowdown
follows.
As usually happens, one generation is especially exposed to the
upcoming period of economic weakness: the millennials, whose delinquency
rate is already the highest among all age cohorts.
Finally, while all of the above have yet to hit the US economy where
GDP recently printed at a solid 2.6% in Q4, in Q1 GDP is expected to
plunge below 1% (Atlanta Fed has it at a paltry 0.3%); once that
happens, US small business confidence which is already plunging at the
fastest rate since the financial crisis after having soared higher after
the Trump election, will crater sending the US economy into a steep
recession if not worse.
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう 記事を紹介しようと訳を入れている間にFOMCが過ぎてしまいタイミングを逸してしまいました、前半は読み飛ばしてください。後半部分に関して、日本では一般会計と特別会計が別れていて政府財政がわかりにくいですが、米国は分離されておらず年金会計がより鮮明になります。＄７０Tって邦貨でいうと約７０００兆円ですからね。 Whistling Past The $70 Trillion Debt Graveyard 07-26-19 Written by Lance Roberts | Jul, 27, 2019 Last week, we discussed the setup for a near-term mean reversion because of the massive extension above the long-term mean. To wit: 先週には、私どもは短期的な平均回帰のし掛けが出来上がっていることを議論した、というのも現在長期的な平均から極端に乖離しているからだ。見てみよう： “There is also just the simple issue that markets are very extended above their long-term trends, as shown in the chart below. A geopolitical event, a shift in expectations, or an acceleration in economic weakness in the U.S. could spark a mean-reverting event which would be quite the norm of what we have seen in recent years.” 「とてもかんたんなことだが、市場は長期的なトレンドからあまりに極端に上方乖離している、それは下のチャートを見れば明らかだ。地政学的出来事、期待値の変化、もしくは米国経済の弱さが加速するなら、平均回帰を引き起こすだろう、それは過去数年でみた典型的な相場の動きだ。」 This analysis is ...
Productivity: What It Is & Why It Matters Written by Michael Lebowitz | Jan, 16, 2019 The Kansas City Federal Reserve posted the Twitter comment and graph below highlighting a very important economic theme. Although productivity is a basic building block of economic analysis, it is one that few economists and even fewer investors seem to appreciate. Kansas 市FEDがツイッターにコメントを投稿した、そのグラフを下に示す、とても重要な経済テーマだ。経済分析においては生産性というのはとても重要な要素だが、ほとんどのエコノミストがこの件に言及しない、投資家は更にこのことを忘れ去っている。 The Kansas City Fed’s tweet is 100% correct in that wages are stagnating in large part due to low productivity growth. As the second chart shows, it is not only wages. The post financial-crisis economic expansion, despite being within months of a record for duration, is by far the weakest since WWII. Kansas City FEDのツイートは１００％正しい、給与が停滞している原因の主要因は生産性成長が低いからだ。二番目のチャートを見ても判るように、成長鈍化は給与だけではない。あの金融危機後の経済拡大は、第二次世界大戦後で記録的長期の拡大期間だが、とても弱い拡大だ。 Productivity growth over the last 350+ years is ...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
この記事は投資人生を通じて有効です。 The Beginning is the End is the Beginning: A Look at Recessions Market Commentary Stocks By Liz Ann Sonders February 25, 2019 Key Points Recessions are not back-to-back negative GDP quarters; they’re instead defined using four key coincident economic indicators. 景気後退とはマイナスGDP成長四半期が連続することではない；そうではなく４つの重要経済指標で定義される。 Bear markets often overlap with recessions (and typically lead them), but not always. ベア相場は景気後退と重なることが多い（典型的には先行する）、しかし必ずそうというわけでもない。 It’s important to distinguish between leading and lagging economic indicators and to focus at least as much on trend as level. 大切なことは先行指標と遅行指標を見極めること、そしてすくなくともそのトレンドに注意せよ。 Recession chatter is abundant lately. It’s increasingly the focus of Q&A sessions at investor events at which I’ve been speaking. I also received a series of questions last week about recessions fro...
