景気後退前にここまで連邦政府債務負荷が多かったことはない

The U.S. Federal Debt Burden Has Never Been This High Before A Recession

Written by Jesse Colombo | Mar, 5, 2019

As the current economic cycle becomes increasingly long-in-the-tooth and macroeconomic and earnings data deteriorate, it is time to start thinking about the next recession. In particular, I wanted to point out that the U.S. federal debt burden has never been so high before a recession, as the chart below shows (hat tip to my Twitter follower @grimacemcdonald for the idea). In past recessions (see gray bars on chart), the U.S. federal government ramped up spending in order to help support the economy. With federal debt at over 100% of the GDP (vs. 62% before the Great Recession), however, it will be a much greater challenge to keep the economy afloat in the coming recession.


現在の経済サクルは極端に長引いており、さらにマクロデータや収益は悪化している、今こそ次の景気後退のことを考えるときだ。特に私が指摘したいのが、景気後退前に米国連邦債務負荷がかつて無いほどに高まっていることだ、それを下のチャートに示す。過去の景気後退では米国連邦政府は景気刺激策として政府歳出を増やした。しかしながら、いまや政府債務がGDPの１００％を超えており、将来の景気後退で景気を扶養させるのはより大きな挑戦だ。

Though interest rates have been at ultra-low levels for the past decade, the sheer amount of U.S. federal debt (over $22 trillion) is the reason why interest payments have spiked over the past couple years. To make matters worse, this debt will eventually need to be refinanced at higher interest rates, which means that interest payments will rise even more. Another recession combined with another ramp-up of federal debt will cause these payments to rise even more. This is how sovereign debt crises happen.

ここ１０年ほど超低金利ではあるものの、連邦政府債務（＄２２T超）が大きく、この二年ほど利払い額が急増している。状況を更に悪化させるのは、現在の債務はやがてもっと高い金利債権で借り換えねばならないことだ、ということは利払いが更に大きくなる。将来の景気後退では更に債務が増えており、その返済は更に大きくなる。こうして政府債務危機が起きる。

Think another U.S. recession is unlikely any time soon? As Lance Roberts has been saying, the odds are much higher than most people think. For example, the extremely accurate New York Federal Reserve recession indicator is now at its highest level since 2008:

米国景気後退はまだ遠いと思うだろうか？　Lance Rovertsがずっと言っているが、多くの人が思っているよりもその可能性は大きい。たとえば、これまでとても正確に予想実績のあるNew York FEDの景気後退指数は今や２００８年以来で最高になっている：
 

Though the stock market has been rallying in the face of deteriorating data, now is not the time for complacency. In my view, the fact that the stock market has been rallying for the past two months is a sign of an extremely unhealthy market in which the Fed/central banks are panicking and doing whatever they can to prop it up as recession odds increase.

悪化する経済データが明らかになる中で株式はラリーを続けているが、今や安心感に浸るときではない。私の見立てでは、この２ヶ月の株式の急騰はとても不健全な市場の兆候であり、景気後退の可能性が増す中で、FEDや世界の中央銀行が何でもできることはするというパニック状態になっている。

 
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