Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,
The widely discussed "everything bubble" is, in reality, a corporate junk bond bubble on steroids sponsored by the Fed...
From a low last October of just under USD 6 trillions the value of
the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Negative-Yielding Debt Index has
more than doubled, increasing in value by over USD 7 trillions over the
last 8 months to establish an all-time record of USD 13.2 trillions
earlier in late June.
昨年１０月の最小時にはマイナス金利債権の量はUSD 6T以下であった、このデータはBloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Negative-Yielding Debt Indexによるものだ、これが現在倍になっている、過去８か月でUSD7Tも増えたのだ、その結果６月遅くには過去最高の USD 13.2Tになった。
The current situation is a manifestation of the inability of global
financial markets to emerge from the era of ultra-low bond yields that
central banks engineered in the wake of the global financial crisis.
Non-conventional policies pursued by central banks in recent years
have lead neither to a rise in sluggish rates of economic growth nor to
an end in the disinflationary trends within the global economy.
After a decade-long buying spree, many companies have pushed their
leverage to levels that are typical of junk-rated borrowers in their
sectors.
もう１０年も買いの度が過ぎて、多くの企業は自らの債権をそのセクタのジャンク級にまでしている。
Bloomberg News delved into 50 of the biggest corporate acquisitions
over the last five years, and found more than half of the acquiring
companies pushed their leverage to levels typical of junk-rated peers.
But those companies, which have almost $1 trillion of debt, have been
allowed to maintain investment-grade ratings by Moody’s Investors
Service and S&P Global Ratings.
This M&A-fueled leveraging of corporate balance sheets
contributed to a surge in debt rated in the bottom investment-grade tier
and now represents almost half of the outstanding market, Bloomberg
Barclays index data show.
Wolf Richterはこう解説する、BBB格付け企業が「ジャンク級」への格下げ回避を試みたときに何が起きるか。
In the next downturn, many bonds in the BBB-category will transition
to junk, and many junk bonds but also some investment-grade bonds – if
the past is any guide – will transition to default. Two-notch downgrades
are not uncommon: one day you wake up, and your “BBB” investment-grade
bond is a “BB+” junk bond.
To avoid a downgrade to junk, companies will try to shore up their
balance sheet. This means curtailing or stopping share buybacks and
slashing dividends.
This is a process GE went through. After blowing nearly $14 billion
on share buybacks in the four years through 2017 to prop up its shares,
GE stopped on a dime and transitioned to dismembering itself to pay down
debts. The share buybacks stopped cold. Then it slashed its dividends
to near-zero. And its shares have plunged.
GE now sports a credit rating of “BBB+” with negative outlook, three
notches from junk, after getting hit by a round of two-notch downgrades
late last year. Despite having already cut off some major limbs to
reduce its debts, GE still has $97 billion in long-term debt. And GE is
still trying hard to dodge further downgrades.
In the latest sign of financial markets going into uncharted
territory, more than a dozen junk bonds, which usually carry high
yields, now trade in Europe with a negative yield.
There are about 14 companies with junk bonds worth more than €3
billion ($3.38 billion) that are trading with negative yields, according
to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. They include telecom giant Altice
Europe NV and tech-equipment company Nokia Corp.
マイナス金利のジャンク・ボンドが１４社で€３B（＄３．３８B)にもなる、Bank of America Merrill Lynchのデータによる。その中には、テレコム巨人のAltice Europe NVやテック企業Nokiaも含まれる。
Everything Bubble
なんでもバブル
Stocks 株式
Bonds 債権
Consumer Confidence 消費者信頼
Buybacks 自社株買い
Faith in Central Banks 中央銀行への信頼
The "everything bubble" has at its roots central bank policy of yield suppression.
Central banks made it easy for corporations to borrow money for
leverage buyouts, to buy back shares, and for zombie corporations to get
enough funding to stay alive.
Investors (speculators actually), especially retiring boomers, are as
optimistic as they were in 2007 when they viewed their own house as a
retirement vehicle, not a place to live.
Investor faith in central banks has never been higher.
投資家の中央銀行への信頼がここまで高かったことはない。
At the individual level, baby boomers see the stock market is up so they buy a car and have a nice vacation.
個人レベルで見ても、団塊の世代は株式は上昇するものだと思い込み、車を買いバケーションを享受する。
Corporations borrow money to buy back their own shares or to make insanely leveraged buyouts.
企業は借金して自社株買いを買う、もしくは不健全なレバレッジドバイアウトを行う。
Hedge funds buy low-yielding junk bonds in belief yields will get even more ridiculous.
ヘッジファンドは低金利のジャンク・ボンドを買う、もっと高値で買う人がいると信じてのことだ。
Deflation Coming
収縮が来る
The Fed is hell bent on producing inflation. The sad part is they do
not now how to measure it. Inflation is all around us: In junk bonds, in
equities, and in home prices.
How Are Gold And Money Supply Related? by Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2020 - 13:00 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, M2 Money Supply is surging. Will gold follow? M2マネーサプライが急増している。ゴールドはこれを追従するだろうか？ Let's investigate an alleged relationship between gold and M2, a measure of money supply in the US. よく言われるM2（米国のマネーサプライ指標）とゴールドの関係について調べてみよう。 "There’s a clear correlation between the annual growth rate in M2 money supply and the price of the yellow metal. " 「M2の年率増加速度とゴールド価格の間には明らかな相関がある。」 Clear Correlation? 明らかな相関？ The Tweet claims something different than my lead chart depicts. So let's investigate the above idea in other time frames. このツイートの主張は私が示す最初のチャートが示すものとは異なる。というわけでこのtweetの主張を別の時間フレームで見てみよう。 Gold vs Rate of Change in M2 Money Supply ゴールド vs M2マネーサプライの変化率 If we look at longer time frames, the rate of increase in M2 theory falls flat on its face....
Is The Stock Market As Confused As You Are About A Recession? Written by Lance Roberts | Apr, 1, 2019 Last week, Barron’s ran an article entitled “The Stock Market Is Just As Confused About A Potential Recession As You Are?” To wit: 先週バロンズにこういう記事が掲載された「株式市場は景気後退を予感させるほどに混乱しているだろうか？」見てみよう： “Investors have long used where we are in the economic cycle to decide which stocks to buy and sell. New research from Nomura’s Joseph Mezrich flips that on its head by showing how investors can use stock performance to help determine where we are in the cycle. Too bad the market is sending mixed messages right now.” 長らく投資家は現在景気サイクルのどこに居るかを見てこの株式を売るか買うかを判断してきた。野村證券のJoseph Mezrichの最近の研究では、これが逆さで、投資家は株式のパフォーマンスを見て今景気サイクルのどこにいるかを判断している。最悪なことに現在相場は悪化改善混在のメッセージを送っている。」 But let’s be clear here; no one wants the party to end. So, despite a struggling stock market over the last year, slowing economic growth, and a collapsing yield curve, there are s...
