After
several unsuccessful attempts to put his preferred candidates on the
Fed's board, moments ago Donald Trump announced that he intends to
nominate Christopher Waller, who is currently the Executive VP and
Director of Research, at the St. Louis Fed, to the board of the Federal
Reserve. Prior to his current position, Christopher served as a
professor and Chair of Economics at Notre Dame.
トランプ大統領は彼のお気に入りを何度かFED取締役に推奨したがうまくゆかなかった、今度はChiristopher Wallerを推薦した、彼は現在セントルイスFEDのEcexutove VPとDirector of Reserch の役にある。現在の仕事の前は、Chrisotperはノートルダム大学の経済学会長兼教授だった。
I am pleased to announce that it is my intention to nominate Christopher Waller, Ph. D., Executive VP and Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Missouri, to be on the board of the Federal Reserve....
He received his B.S. in economics from Bemidji State University in
1981, and his M.A. and Ph.D. from Washington State University in 1984
and 1985, respectively. His principal research interests are monetary
theory, political economy and macroeconomic theory.
１９８１年にBemidji State University で経済学BSを取得、その後M.A.とPh.DをWashington State Universityで取得、１９８４，１９８５。主な研究分野は金融理論、政治経済とマクロ経済理論。
Prior to joining the Fed as research director in June 2009, Mr.
Waller served as a professor and the Gilbert F. Schaefer Chair of
Economics at the University of Notre Dame. He was also a research fellow
with Notre Dame's Kellogg Institute for International Studies.
２００９年６月にFEDの研究ディレクターになる前は、Mr. Wallerはノートルダム大学の経済学教授。彼はまたノートルダムKellogg Institute for International Studiewの研究フェローだった。
From 2006 to 2007, he served as the acting department chair for Notre
Dame's Department of Economics and Econometrics. From 1998 to 2003, Mr.
Waller was a professor and the Carol Martin Gatton Chair of
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics at the University of Kentucky.
During that time, he was also a research fellow at the Center for
European Integration Studies (ZEI) at the University of Bonn. From
1992-1994, he served as the director of graduate studies at Indiana
University's Department of Economics, where he also served as associate
professor (1992 to 1998) and an assistant professor (1985 to 1992).
２００６から２００７年にはノートルダム大学経済学計量経済学、学部長だった。１９９８から２００３年にはMr. Wallerはケンタッキー大学、Carol Marin Gatton Chair of MacroeconomissあんdMonetary Economicsの教授だった。投じ、かれはまたボン大学Center for European Integration Studiesのフェローリサーチャーだった。１９９２−１９９４には、インディアナ大学経済学部大学院のディレクターだった、そこで１９９２−１９９８に准教授、そして１９８５−１９９２に助教授だった。
However, the reason why gold is spiking after hours, is that shortly
after tweeting the Waller nomination, Trump also confirmed the
previously rumored nomination of Judy Shelton to the Fed board:
I am pleased to announce that it is my intention to nominate Judy
Shelton, Ph. D., U.S. Executive Dir, European Bank of Reconstruction
& Development to be on the board of the Federal Reserve Judy is a
Founding Member of the board of directors of Empower America and has
served on the board of directors of Hilton Hotels.
ここで謹んでご報告する、私はJudy Shelton Ph.D、Eutopean Bank of Reconstruction & Developmentの米国代表役員、をFED役員に推薦する。JudyはEmpower Americaの創設メンバーで、ヒルトンホテルの取締役でも在る。
I am pleased to announce that it is my intention to nominate Judy Shelton, Ph. D., U.S. Executive Dir, European Bank of Reconstruction & Development to be on the board of the Federal Reserve....
I am pleased to announce that it is my intention to nominate Judy Shelton, Ph. D., U.S. Executive Dir, European Bank of Reconstruction & Development to be on the board of the Federal Reserve....
This is what Bloomberg reported back
in May: "The White House is considering conservative economist Judy
Shelton to fill one of the two vacancies on the Federal Reserve Board of
Governors that President Donald Trump has struggled to fill. She’s
currently U.S. executive director for the European Bank for
Reconstruction and Development, and previously worked for the Sound
Money Project, which was founded to promote awareness about monetary
stability and financial privacy."
５月にブルームバーグはこう報告した：「ホワイトハウスは保守的エコノミストであるJudy SheltonをFEDの役員空席二名の候補と考えている、トランプ大統領はこれを埋めることに積極的だ。彼女は現愛European Bank for Reconstruction and Develompentの米国代表役員で、これまでSound Money Projectで働いていた、この組織は金融安定化と財政プライバシーのために創設されたものだ。」
Since President Trump announced his intention to nominate Herman Cain
and Stephen Moore to serve on the Federal Reserve’s board of governors,
mainstream commentators have made a point of dismissing anyone
sympathetic to a gold standard as crankish or unqualified.
But it is wholly legitimate, and entirely prudent, to
question the infallibility of the Federal Reserve in calibrating the
money supply to the needs of the economy. No other government
institution had more influence over the creation of money and credit in
the lead-up to the devastating 2008 global meltdown. And the Fed’s
response to the meltdown may have exacerbated the damage by lowering the
incentive for banks to fund private-sector growth.
What began as an emergency decision in the wake of the financial
crisis to pay interest to commercial banks on excess reserves has become
the Fed’s main mechanism for conducting monetary policy. To raise
interest rates, the Fed increases the rate it pays banks to keep their
$1.5 trillion in excess reserves—eight times what is required—parked in
accounts at Federal Reserve district banks. Rewarding banks for holding
excess reserves in sterile depository accounts at the Fed rather than
making loans to the public does not help create business or spur job
creation.
Meanwhile, for all the talk of a “rules-based” system for
international trade, there are no rules when it comes to ensuring a
level monetary playing field. The classical gold standard established an
international benchmark for currency values, consistent with free-trade
principles. Today’s arrangements permit governments to manipulate their
currencies to gain an export advantage.
Money is meant to serve as a reliable unit of account and store of value across borders and through time. It’s
entirely reasonable to ask whether this might be better assured by
linking the supply of money and credit to gold or some other reference
point as opposed to relying on the judgment of a dozen or so monetary
officials meeting eight times a year to set interest rates. A
linked system could allow currency convertibility by individuals (as
under a gold standard) or foreign central banks (as under Bretton
Woods). Either way, it could redress inflationary pressures.
マネーとは本来国を超え時間を超えて信頼できる store of value であるはずだ。マネーと与信の供給をゴールドもしくは他の基準に連動させるといのは全く合理的なことで、一方現在は年に８回も各国の金融担当者が会合を持つのとは全く違う手法だ。こういう連動システムは個人の取引（金本位制のもとで）も各国中央銀行間（Bretton Woodsのもとで）の通貨交換をも可能にする。 どちらにしろインフレ圧力を無くする。
Judy Shelton is author of the 1998 book Money Meltdown; and previously she had concluded that "Central bankers, and their defenders, have proven less than omniscient."
Class 8 Heavy Truck Orders Crash 68% in January by Tyler Durden Wed, 02/06/2019 - 17:25 Among the latest dismal news about the strength of the US economy, on Tuesday ACT Research released preliminary truck orders for January 2019 which showed that Class 8 truck orders collapsed an astounding 68% for January. The decline is being attributed to a 300,000+ vehicle backlog potentially prompting fleets to halt purchases in the near term. 米国経済に関し最近憂鬱なニュースが多い中で、火曜にACT researchが２０１９年１月のトラック発注を開示した、１月にClass 8のトラック発注がなんと６８％も急落した。この発注減は短期的に３００，０００台超の潜在在庫を生み出す。 Specifically, in January Class 8 net orders were 15,800 units (14,700 SA; 176,400 SAAR), down 68% YoY and down 26% MoM. Class 5- 7 January net orders were 23,400...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう "On The Precipice" by Tyler Durden Mon, 06/24/2019 - 14:30 Authored by Kevin Ludolph via Crescat Capital, Dear Investors: The US stock market is retesting its all-time highs at record valuations yet again. We strongly believe it is poised to fail. The problem for bullish late-cycle momentum investors trying to play a breakout to new highs here is the oncoming freight train of deteriorating macro-economic conditions. 米国株式は記録的バリエーションのもとで再度過去最高を試している。私どもはこれが失敗すると強く信じている。景気拡大終盤で強気のモメンタム投資家が新高値を試そうとしていることの問題は、マクロ経済条件の悪化にある。 US corporate profit growth, year-over-year, for the S&P 500 already fully evaporated in the first quarter of 2019 and is heading toward outright decline for the full year based on earnings estimate revision trends. Note the alligator jaws divergence in the chart be...
中国が債務増加していることはたしかです。ただ日本の例を日銀資金循環報告でみると家計、３２０兆円、民間非金融機関１，７８５兆円、一般政府 １，２８４兆円となります。合算すると３，３００兆円にもなり、GDPの６００％を超えています。 https://www.boj.or.jp/statistics/sj/sjexp.pdf この記事の統計と同じ考え方で数値を採用しているのかどうか気になります。 加えて、この資金循環報告に書かれている海外資産というのが内数なのか外数なのか？私にはよくわかりません。当然海外債務も結構な額になります。一度日銀資金循環 図表１を見てください。詳しい方に教えていただければ。 この中国のたどる道は昔のソ連とかMMTと同様で、自国通貨ならいくら発行しても倒産はしない、というか為政者が痛みに耐えることができず緩和を続けるというものです。でも最終的には限界点に達します。ソ連は建国から崩壊まで７０年かかりました。 自由主義経済なら立ち行かなくなった企業は退場してもらうというのが減速なのですが、これがうまくゆかないわけです。 でも日本は中国のはるか先を言っているように見えます。ちょっと検索したのですが、日本の債務に関しては政府債務に言及したものばかりで、この記事のように民間、個人まで総合的に記載しているのは日銀の資金循環統計しか見つけることができませんでした。 China Continues To Pile Debt On Top Of More Debt Written by Jesse Colombo | Feb, 27, 2019 Like many countries, China attempted to rein in its debt growth over the past couple years, but ultimately gave up and is now back to piling on even more debt. Bloomberg reports – 多くの国と同様に、中国もここ２年ほど債務増加を抑えようとしてきた、しかし結局の所諦めてしまい、今や更に債務を積み上げている。ブルームバーグ記事ーー For almost two years,...
