After
several unsuccessful attempts to put his preferred candidates on the
Fed's board, moments ago Donald Trump announced that he intends to
nominate Christopher Waller, who is currently the Executive VP and
Director of Research, at the St. Louis Fed, to the board of the Federal
Reserve. Prior to his current position, Christopher served as a
professor and Chair of Economics at Notre Dame.
トランプ大統領は彼のお気に入りを何度かFED取締役に推奨したがうまくゆかなかった、今度はChiristopher Wallerを推薦した、彼は現在セントルイスFEDのEcexutove VPとDirector of Reserch の役にある。現在の仕事の前は、Chrisotperはノートルダム大学の経済学会長兼教授だった。
I am pleased to announce that it is my intention to nominate Christopher Waller, Ph. D., Executive VP and Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Missouri, to be on the board of the Federal Reserve....
He received his B.S. in economics from Bemidji State University in
1981, and his M.A. and Ph.D. from Washington State University in 1984
and 1985, respectively. His principal research interests are monetary
theory, political economy and macroeconomic theory.
１９８１年にBemidji State University で経済学BSを取得、その後M.A.とPh.DをWashington State Universityで取得、１９８４，１９８５。主な研究分野は金融理論、政治経済とマクロ経済理論。
Prior to joining the Fed as research director in June 2009, Mr.
Waller served as a professor and the Gilbert F. Schaefer Chair of
Economics at the University of Notre Dame. He was also a research fellow
with Notre Dame's Kellogg Institute for International Studies.
２００９年６月にFEDの研究ディレクターになる前は、Mr. Wallerはノートルダム大学の経済学教授。彼はまたノートルダムKellogg Institute for International Studiewの研究フェローだった。
From 2006 to 2007, he served as the acting department chair for Notre
Dame's Department of Economics and Econometrics. From 1998 to 2003, Mr.
Waller was a professor and the Carol Martin Gatton Chair of
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics at the University of Kentucky.
During that time, he was also a research fellow at the Center for
European Integration Studies (ZEI) at the University of Bonn. From
1992-1994, he served as the director of graduate studies at Indiana
University's Department of Economics, where he also served as associate
professor (1992 to 1998) and an assistant professor (1985 to 1992).
２００６から２００７年にはノートルダム大学経済学計量経済学、学部長だった。１９９８から２００３年にはMr. Wallerはケンタッキー大学、Carol Marin Gatton Chair of MacroeconomissあんdMonetary Economicsの教授だった。投じ、かれはまたボン大学Center for European Integration Studiesのフェローリサーチャーだった。１９９２−１９９４には、インディアナ大学経済学部大学院のディレクターだった、そこで１９９２−１９９８に准教授、そして１９８５−１９９２に助教授だった。
However, the reason why gold is spiking after hours, is that shortly
after tweeting the Waller nomination, Trump also confirmed the
previously rumored nomination of Judy Shelton to the Fed board:
I am pleased to announce that it is my intention to nominate Judy
Shelton, Ph. D., U.S. Executive Dir, European Bank of Reconstruction
& Development to be on the board of the Federal Reserve Judy is a
Founding Member of the board of directors of Empower America and has
served on the board of directors of Hilton Hotels.
ここで謹んでご報告する、私はJudy Shelton Ph.D、Eutopean Bank of Reconstruction & Developmentの米国代表役員、をFED役員に推薦する。JudyはEmpower Americaの創設メンバーで、ヒルトンホテルの取締役でも在る。
I am pleased to announce that it is my intention to nominate Judy Shelton, Ph. D., U.S. Executive Dir, European Bank of Reconstruction & Development to be on the board of the Federal Reserve....
I am pleased to announce that it is my intention to nominate Judy Shelton, Ph. D., U.S. Executive Dir, European Bank of Reconstruction & Development to be on the board of the Federal Reserve....
This is what Bloomberg reported back
in May: "The White House is considering conservative economist Judy
Shelton to fill one of the two vacancies on the Federal Reserve Board of
Governors that President Donald Trump has struggled to fill. She’s
currently U.S. executive director for the European Bank for
Reconstruction and Development, and previously worked for the Sound
Money Project, which was founded to promote awareness about monetary
stability and financial privacy."
５月にブルームバーグはこう報告した：「ホワイトハウスは保守的エコノミストであるJudy SheltonをFEDの役員空席二名の候補と考えている、トランプ大統領はこれを埋めることに積極的だ。彼女は現愛European Bank for Reconstruction and Develompentの米国代表役員で、これまでSound Money Projectで働いていた、この組織は金融安定化と財政プライバシーのために創設されたものだ。」
Since President Trump announced his intention to nominate Herman Cain
and Stephen Moore to serve on the Federal Reserve’s board of governors,
mainstream commentators have made a point of dismissing anyone
sympathetic to a gold standard as crankish or unqualified.
But it is wholly legitimate, and entirely prudent, to
question the infallibility of the Federal Reserve in calibrating the
money supply to the needs of the economy. No other government
institution had more influence over the creation of money and credit in
the lead-up to the devastating 2008 global meltdown. And the Fed’s
response to the meltdown may have exacerbated the damage by lowering the
incentive for banks to fund private-sector growth.
What began as an emergency decision in the wake of the financial
crisis to pay interest to commercial banks on excess reserves has become
the Fed’s main mechanism for conducting monetary policy. To raise
interest rates, the Fed increases the rate it pays banks to keep their
$1.5 trillion in excess reserves—eight times what is required—parked in
accounts at Federal Reserve district banks. Rewarding banks for holding
excess reserves in sterile depository accounts at the Fed rather than
making loans to the public does not help create business or spur job
creation.
Meanwhile, for all the talk of a “rules-based” system for
international trade, there are no rules when it comes to ensuring a
level monetary playing field. The classical gold standard established an
international benchmark for currency values, consistent with free-trade
principles. Today’s arrangements permit governments to manipulate their
currencies to gain an export advantage.
Money is meant to serve as a reliable unit of account and store of value across borders and through time. It’s
entirely reasonable to ask whether this might be better assured by
linking the supply of money and credit to gold or some other reference
point as opposed to relying on the judgment of a dozen or so monetary
officials meeting eight times a year to set interest rates. A
linked system could allow currency convertibility by individuals (as
under a gold standard) or foreign central banks (as under Bretton
Woods). Either way, it could redress inflationary pressures.
マネーとは本来国を超え時間を超えて信頼できる store of value であるはずだ。マネーと与信の供給をゴールドもしくは他の基準に連動させるといのは全く合理的なことで、一方現在は年に８回も各国の金融担当者が会合を持つのとは全く違う手法だ。こういう連動システムは個人の取引（金本位制のもとで）も各国中央銀行間（Bretton Woodsのもとで）の通貨交換をも可能にする。 どちらにしろインフレ圧力を無くする。
Judy Shelton is author of the 1998 book Money Meltdown; and previously she had concluded that "Central bankers, and their defenders, have proven less than omniscient."
Mish: Gold Hits New Record High And There's More To Come by Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2020 - 10:10 Twitter Facebook Reddit Email Print Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, Gold futures just touched $1928 taking out the Intraday high of $1923.70 in 2011. ゴールド先物が＄１９２８になり、２０１１年の日中高値＄１９２３．７０を超えた。 11-Week Run １１週連続上昇 Gold is on a huge 11-week run. The last time gold did that was at the 2011 high. ゴールドはなんと１１週連続で上昇だ。前回の新高値は２０１１年のことだった。 Is a pullback in order? A Gold COT chart says otherwise. 通常の引き戻しが待ち構えているだろうか？ ゴールドのCoTチャートを見るとそうでもなさそうだ。 Gold COT Chart ゴールドCoTチャート Understanding Futures 先物市場を読み解く In the futures world there is a short for every long. 先物市場ではどのロングにもショートが対応している。 The first horizontal box has Large Specs, Small Specs, and Commercials. This is It's Old COT reporting. この図の下部、最初の横長い箱に示すのは Large Specs、Small Specs、そしてCommercialsのポジションだ。このチャートは従来からのCoT...
現在のCPI推移をみるとFEDの言う２％目標に収まりそうにはありません。実際現在の金利政策はまだ緩和的で、政府の大判振る舞いもあり、M2はコロナ騒動以前のトレンドを大きく超えたまま漸増し始めています。大統領選挙もあり、パウエルは今後利上げはないと言明しており、利下げ期待が高まっています。 In Gold We Trust 2024（２０ページ目）では１９７０年代のインフレ推移と現在２０２４年のインフレ推移を重ね、もっと大きなインフレがこれから来そうだと示唆しています。 https://ingoldwetrust.report/in-gold-we-trust-report/?lang=en 当時は数年間でゴールド価格は７倍になりました。直近のCPIのピーク値と比べると、今回は次のピーク、今後数年、でゴールドが５倍程度になることが期待されます。 ミシガン大学の調査ではインフレがFED目標の２％に落ち着くと期待されず、最近では期待値が増え始めています。
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
