Authored by Erik Lytikainen via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
Mark Twain once said, “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”
Since President Nixon removed the gold standard in the early 1970s,
gold has seen several significant rallies, all of which have similar
wave characteristics. Gold rallies seem to rhyme.
The first two price rallies began in 1971 and 1977, during and after
the de-linking of the U.S. dollar from gold. The most recent price rally
has its seeds in the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s. The chart
below shows two long-term monthly gold rallies, with the second rally
appearing to be an amplified but similar version of the first. I have
overlaid Fibonacci sequence numbers to demonstrate how the price of gold
has spiked upward in expanding, fractal waves during these prior
surges.
In the 1970s, gold traveled through four Fibonacci levels (by this
measure) in less than a decade after the removal of the gold standard.
From 2000 through 2012, amid the dot-com and housing bubbles, gold also
traveled through four Fibonacci levels on the way to $1,900.
If history rhymes again, and I believe it will, then the price of
gold will again spike upward through three or four Fibonacci extensions
to the upside, but then re-trace 50% to 70% of that upward move. If so, then the next upward spike could peak in the range between $7,000 and $11,000 per ounce. もし歴史がまたもや韻を踏むと言うなら、私はそれを信じているが、ゴールド価格はまたもや３度か４度フィボナッチレベルを超えて上昇するだろう、しかしその後その上昇も５０％から７０％後退するだろう。もしそうなるなら、次の上昇スパイクは＄７，０００から＄１１，０００の間ということになる。
Investors tend to make rash decisions based on fear and greed. These
emotions are typically amplified during times of financial stress. It is
during such times that gold solicits fear and greed motivated buyers.
During a crisis, fear investors will rotate into gold to hold value, and
greed investors see the upward momentum and jump on the train. The
upward momentum of the next gold rally might feel like the Bitcoin surge
in 2017.
In baseball, its “three strikes and you’re out.” After the 1970’s
surge and blow-off top in 1980, gold failed three key technical tests.
After these failures, the gold market floundered for another decade.
Let’s take a closer look at those three technical failures.
First, in early 1983, gold failed to retake and hold the
psychologically important $500/oz price level. This rejection resulted
in sideways to lower movement for another year before gold failed again,
breaking below its upward trend line near $360/oz. After falling to a
low in early 1985, gold moved higher over the next three years, only to
fail a third key resistance test near $500/oz in late 1987. After
“striking out” in the 1980s, gold fell throughout the next decade back
to $250/oz.
Unlike the gold bear market of the 1980s, gold has been passing
periodic tests of support and resistance since its sharp decline in
2013. Gold’s price retracement from a high above $1,900 to a low near
$1,040 kept the price above a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level as well
as the psychologically important $1,000 per ounce level.
The monthly wave structure of gold is bullish, and the price is now
trading above key resistance levels, with solid support at $1,379 and
$1,250. Even if the price of gold falls back to support at $1,250 per
ounce, the long term technical picture remains bullish. I view the
recent breakout over $1,380 to be significant and has likely opened the
door towards the $1,580 resistance area.
To the downside, technical breakdowns below $1,250 could lead the way
to $1,211 and $1,043. If history does indeed rhyme, a breakdown below
$1,043 could lead to another decade of futility. This downside scenario
does not appear likely, especially not with the uber-accommodative
interest rate policies worldwide. High U.S. dollar interest rates broke
the back of the gold rally in the 1980s, and there does not appear to
be any such risk of this happening again anytime soon.
In addition to my longer-term view on gold, I also track shorter-term
price signals to locate areas of accumulation and/or hedging. An
indicator I developed shows a mean-reversion relationship between price
and the point of Neutral Delta in the options market. Essentially, the
point of Neutral Delta shows where the options market participants have
placed their bets and hedges. At the moment, Neutral Delta is near
$1,345 per ounce for the options which expire on July 25th.
When the price is over-bought in relation to Neutral Delta (as it is
now), we tend to see headwinds for further price increases.
Interpreting the current data, I am led to believe that the price of
gold will re-test the $1,380 price level before July 25th, and this will
give the options hedgers an opportunity to optimize their hedge book
ahead of the next few option expirations. A lower probability event
would be a price spike again towards $1,450 which would like force a
short-covering rally by the call option sellers who may already be
out-of-the-money.
If we are in the opening innings of a new rally in gold, a retest of
$1,380 or even $1,250 will represent great opportunities to buy or add
to your gold positions. You can learn more about my research by clicking this link: Introduction to Options Sentiment.
Gold can be best viewed as financial insurance. If you believe that
you should own insurance, then you should also own gold. In terms of
investment performance, gold will do best during times of international
financial stress. In the past, the price of gold has moved
exponentially higher during these periods as demand for the ultimate
safe haven goes viral.
The world is slowly but steadily transitioning from a U.S.
dollar-backed financial system to a multi-currency, multi-polar system.
One day, the leaders of our world will let the rest of us know the plan
for a modified financial system, and we will have to admit that we were
warned many times in advance. I expect that the gold price spike will
happen before, during, and after a new Bretton Woods-type conference.
While there are many signs that a new financial order is imminent, the
transition to this new financial order could take more time than many
have been led to believe.
From a short-term perspective, I use gold puts to protect my current
precious metal allocations. This is like purchasing insurance on the
value of my current insurance policy. It also helps preserve my wealth
allowing me to buy more gold if prices do in fact, drop to $1,380 or
$1,250.
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう 記事を紹介しようと訳を入れている間にFOMCが過ぎてしまいタイミングを逸してしまいました、前半は読み飛ばしてください。後半部分に関して、日本では一般会計と特別会計が別れていて政府財政がわかりにくいですが、米国は分離されておらず年金会計がより鮮明になります。＄７０Tって邦貨でいうと約７０００兆円ですからね。 Whistling Past The $70 Trillion Debt Graveyard 07-26-19 Written by Lance Roberts | Jul, 27, 2019 Last week, we discussed the setup for a near-term mean reversion because of the massive extension above the long-term mean. To wit: 先週には、私どもは短期的な平均回帰のし掛けが出来上がっていることを議論した、というのも現在長期的な平均から極端に乖離しているからだ。見てみよう： “There is also just the simple issue that markets are very extended above their long-term trends, as shown in the chart below. A geopolitical event, a shift in expectations, or an acceleration in economic weakness in the U.S. could spark a mean-reverting event which would be quite the norm of what we have seen in recent years.” 「とてもかんたんなことだが、市場は長期的なトレンドからあまりに極端に上方乖離している、それは下のチャートを見れば明らかだ。地政学的出来事、期待値の変化、もしくは米国経済の弱さが加速するなら、平均回帰を引き起こすだろう、それは過去数年でみた典型的な相場の動きだ。」 This analysis is ...
Productivity: What It Is & Why It Matters Written by Michael Lebowitz | Jan, 16, 2019 The Kansas City Federal Reserve posted the Twitter comment and graph below highlighting a very important economic theme. Although productivity is a basic building block of economic analysis, it is one that few economists and even fewer investors seem to appreciate. Kansas 市FEDがツイッターにコメントを投稿した、そのグラフを下に示す、とても重要な経済テーマだ。経済分析においては生産性というのはとても重要な要素だが、ほとんどのエコノミストがこの件に言及しない、投資家は更にこのことを忘れ去っている。 The Kansas City Fed’s tweet is 100% correct in that wages are stagnating in large part due to low productivity growth. As the second chart shows, it is not only wages. The post financial-crisis economic expansion, despite being within months of a record for duration, is by far the weakest since WWII. Kansas City FEDのツイートは１００％正しい、給与が停滞している原因の主要因は生産性成長が低いからだ。二番目のチャートを見ても判るように、成長鈍化は給与だけではない。あの金融危機後の経済拡大は、第二次世界大戦後で記録的長期の拡大期間だが、とても弱い拡大だ。 Productivity growth over the last 350+ years is ...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
このブログ左の参考図書の一つがHoward Marksの本です。初めてこの本を読んだ時、管理人は目からウロコが取れた思いでした。 Howard Marks: "We Had One Of The Most Violent Downdrafts I Had Ever Seen" by Tyler Durden Mon, 01/14/2019 - 09:28 Right around the market peaked on September 2018, Oaktree's iconic founder Howard Marks published a letter to investors in which he warned that the market conditions made it "a time for caution", to wit: 市場がピークを迎えた２０１８年９月ころ、Oaktreeの伝説的創業者 Howard Marksが投資家向けレターを発行した、この中で市場環境は「注意すべき時だ」と警告した、見てみよう： I’m absolutely not saying people shouldn’t invest today, or shouldn’t invest in debt. Oaktree’s mantra recently has been, and continues to be, “move forward, but with caution.” The outlook is not so bad, and asset prices are not so high, that one should be in cash or near-cash. The penalty in terms of likely opportunity cost is just too great to ...
