Authored by Erik Lytikainen via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
Mark Twain once said, “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”
Since President Nixon removed the gold standard in the early 1970s,
gold has seen several significant rallies, all of which have similar
wave characteristics. Gold rallies seem to rhyme.
The first two price rallies began in 1971 and 1977, during and after
the de-linking of the U.S. dollar from gold. The most recent price rally
has its seeds in the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s. The chart
below shows two long-term monthly gold rallies, with the second rally
appearing to be an amplified but similar version of the first. I have
overlaid Fibonacci sequence numbers to demonstrate how the price of gold
has spiked upward in expanding, fractal waves during these prior
surges.
In the 1970s, gold traveled through four Fibonacci levels (by this
measure) in less than a decade after the removal of the gold standard.
From 2000 through 2012, amid the dot-com and housing bubbles, gold also
traveled through four Fibonacci levels on the way to $1,900.
If history rhymes again, and I believe it will, then the price of
gold will again spike upward through three or four Fibonacci extensions
to the upside, but then re-trace 50% to 70% of that upward move. If so, then the next upward spike could peak in the range between $7,000 and $11,000 per ounce. もし歴史がまたもや韻を踏むと言うなら、私はそれを信じているが、ゴールド価格はまたもや３度か４度フィボナッチレベルを超えて上昇するだろう、しかしその後その上昇も５０％から７０％後退するだろう。もしそうなるなら、次の上昇スパイクは＄７，０００から＄１１，０００の間ということになる。
Investors tend to make rash decisions based on fear and greed. These
emotions are typically amplified during times of financial stress. It is
during such times that gold solicits fear and greed motivated buyers.
During a crisis, fear investors will rotate into gold to hold value, and
greed investors see the upward momentum and jump on the train. The
upward momentum of the next gold rally might feel like the Bitcoin surge
in 2017.
In baseball, its “three strikes and you’re out.” After the 1970’s
surge and blow-off top in 1980, gold failed three key technical tests.
After these failures, the gold market floundered for another decade.
Let’s take a closer look at those three technical failures.
First, in early 1983, gold failed to retake and hold the
psychologically important $500/oz price level. This rejection resulted
in sideways to lower movement for another year before gold failed again,
breaking below its upward trend line near $360/oz. After falling to a
low in early 1985, gold moved higher over the next three years, only to
fail a third key resistance test near $500/oz in late 1987. After
“striking out” in the 1980s, gold fell throughout the next decade back
to $250/oz.
Unlike the gold bear market of the 1980s, gold has been passing
periodic tests of support and resistance since its sharp decline in
2013. Gold’s price retracement from a high above $1,900 to a low near
$1,040 kept the price above a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level as well
as the psychologically important $1,000 per ounce level.
The monthly wave structure of gold is bullish, and the price is now
trading above key resistance levels, with solid support at $1,379 and
$1,250. Even if the price of gold falls back to support at $1,250 per
ounce, the long term technical picture remains bullish. I view the
recent breakout over $1,380 to be significant and has likely opened the
door towards the $1,580 resistance area.
To the downside, technical breakdowns below $1,250 could lead the way
to $1,211 and $1,043. If history does indeed rhyme, a breakdown below
$1,043 could lead to another decade of futility. This downside scenario
does not appear likely, especially not with the uber-accommodative
interest rate policies worldwide. High U.S. dollar interest rates broke
the back of the gold rally in the 1980s, and there does not appear to
be any such risk of this happening again anytime soon.
In addition to my longer-term view on gold, I also track shorter-term
price signals to locate areas of accumulation and/or hedging. An
indicator I developed shows a mean-reversion relationship between price
and the point of Neutral Delta in the options market. Essentially, the
point of Neutral Delta shows where the options market participants have
placed their bets and hedges. At the moment, Neutral Delta is near
$1,345 per ounce for the options which expire on July 25th.
When the price is over-bought in relation to Neutral Delta (as it is
now), we tend to see headwinds for further price increases.
Interpreting the current data, I am led to believe that the price of
gold will re-test the $1,380 price level before July 25th, and this will
give the options hedgers an opportunity to optimize their hedge book
ahead of the next few option expirations. A lower probability event
would be a price spike again towards $1,450 which would like force a
short-covering rally by the call option sellers who may already be
out-of-the-money.
If we are in the opening innings of a new rally in gold, a retest of
$1,380 or even $1,250 will represent great opportunities to buy or add
to your gold positions. You can learn more about my research by clicking this link: Introduction to Options Sentiment.
Gold can be best viewed as financial insurance. If you believe that
you should own insurance, then you should also own gold. In terms of
investment performance, gold will do best during times of international
financial stress. In the past, the price of gold has moved
exponentially higher during these periods as demand for the ultimate
safe haven goes viral.
The world is slowly but steadily transitioning from a U.S.
dollar-backed financial system to a multi-currency, multi-polar system.
One day, the leaders of our world will let the rest of us know the plan
for a modified financial system, and we will have to admit that we were
warned many times in advance. I expect that the gold price spike will
happen before, during, and after a new Bretton Woods-type conference.
While there are many signs that a new financial order is imminent, the
transition to this new financial order could take more time than many
have been led to believe.
From a short-term perspective, I use gold puts to protect my current
precious metal allocations. This is like purchasing insurance on the
value of my current insurance policy. It also helps preserve my wealth
allowing me to buy more gold if prices do in fact, drop to $1,380 or
$1,250.
多量のオピオイドを米国に送り込み、米国で深刻な麻薬中毒問題を引き起こしています。現代版「阿片戦争」です。あのトヨタ初の女性取締役もオピオイド中毒で逮捕解任されましたよね。 US Is Dependent On China For Almost 80% Of Its Medicine by Tyler Durden Fri, 05/31/2019 - 12:55 Experts are warning that the U.S. has become way too reliant on China for all our medicine , our pain killers, antibiotics, vitamins, aspirin and many cancer treatment medicine. 専門家はこう警告する、米国はすべての医薬品、痛み止め、抗生物質、ビタミン、アスピリン、各種抗がん剤で、中国依存度が高すぎる。 Fox Business reports that according to FDA estimates at least 80 percent of active ingredients found in all of America’s medicine come from abroad, primarily from China . And it’s not just the ingredients, China wants to become the world’s dominant generic drug maker. So far Chinese companies are making generic for everything from high blood pressure to chemotherapy drugs. 90 percent of America’s prescriptions a...
日本と同じくPOMOになる公算が大きいとは思いますが、どうでしょうね。 米国大統領選挙の勝者と１１月投票日前数ヶ月の株価の動向には９割以上の相関があります。はっきり言えば、公約とか主義主張には無関係です :) 。この時期株価を維持・上昇すると現職政党勝利、株価が下落すると挑戦政党勝利となります。熱心な民主党員活動家である前FED議長イエレンは頻繁に口先介入をしましたが、量的緩和再開まで踏み込めず、４年前の秋に株価が下落し、トランプ勝利となりました。株価と大統領選挙の相関をトランプは熟知しています、４年前には株価が下落するようしきりと口先介入していました。今年は１１月まで株価を維持できるかどうか？どうでしょう。 Mark Your Calendar: Next Week The Fed's Liquidity Drain Begins by Tyler Durden Fri, 01/03/2020 - 14:54 What goes up, must come down, at least in theory. 上昇があれば、その後に下落が伴う、少なくとも理論上ではそうだ。 Ever since the start of October when the Fed launched QE4 - or as some still call it "Not QE" - in response to the Sept repo crisis, figuring out the market has been pretty simple: if the Fed's balance sheet goes up so does the S&P500, and vice versa. １０月にFEDがQE4を始めて以来ーー「Not QE」という人もいるがーー９月のレポ危機に対応したものだが、相場はとても単純になった：FEDがバランス...
先週の記事です。最後の２段落だけ訳をいれておきます。 Gold’s Peculiar Surge Adam Hamilton February 21, 2020 3246 Words Gold is enjoying an awesome week, surging back above $1600 for the first time in nearly 7 years! That big round psychologically-heavy level is really catching traders’ attention, great improving sentiment. Yet this recent gold surge has proven peculiar. Unlike normal rallies, the buying driving this one largely hasn’t come from gold’s usual primary drivers. The stealth buying behind this surge may impair its staying power. This Tuesday gold surged 1.2% higher to close near $1602. It hadn’t crested $1600 on close since way back in late March 2013 fully 6.9 years ago! Long-time gold traders shudder at the dark spring which followed. Within less than several weeks after that last $1600+ close, gold plummeted 16.2%. Most of that came in ...
What Could Go Wrong? The Fed's Warns On Corporate Debt by Tyler Durden Thu, 05/09/2019 - 11:44 Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, “So, if the housing market isn’t going to affect the economy, and low interest rates are now a permanent fixture in our society, and there is NO risk in doing anything because we can financially engineer our way out it – then why are all these companies building up departments betting on what could be the biggest crash the world has ever seen? What is more evident is what isn’t being said. Banks aren’t saying “we are gearing up just in case something bad happens.” Quite the contrary – they are gearing up for WHEN it happens. When the turn does come, it will be unlike anything we have ever seen before. The scale of it could be considerable because of the size of some...
