Authored by Erik Lytikainen via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
Mark Twain once said, “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”
Since President Nixon removed the gold standard in the early 1970s,
gold has seen several significant rallies, all of which have similar
wave characteristics. Gold rallies seem to rhyme.
The first two price rallies began in 1971 and 1977, during and after
the de-linking of the U.S. dollar from gold. The most recent price rally
has its seeds in the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s. The chart
below shows two long-term monthly gold rallies, with the second rally
appearing to be an amplified but similar version of the first. I have
overlaid Fibonacci sequence numbers to demonstrate how the price of gold
has spiked upward in expanding, fractal waves during these prior
surges.
In the 1970s, gold traveled through four Fibonacci levels (by this
measure) in less than a decade after the removal of the gold standard.
From 2000 through 2012, amid the dot-com and housing bubbles, gold also
traveled through four Fibonacci levels on the way to $1,900.
If history rhymes again, and I believe it will, then the price of
gold will again spike upward through three or four Fibonacci extensions
to the upside, but then re-trace 50% to 70% of that upward move. If so, then the next upward spike could peak in the range between $7,000 and $11,000 per ounce. もし歴史がまたもや韻を踏むと言うなら、私はそれを信じているが、ゴールド価格はまたもや３度か４度フィボナッチレベルを超えて上昇するだろう、しかしその後その上昇も５０％から７０％後退するだろう。もしそうなるなら、次の上昇スパイクは＄７，０００から＄１１，０００の間ということになる。
Investors tend to make rash decisions based on fear and greed. These
emotions are typically amplified during times of financial stress. It is
during such times that gold solicits fear and greed motivated buyers.
During a crisis, fear investors will rotate into gold to hold value, and
greed investors see the upward momentum and jump on the train. The
upward momentum of the next gold rally might feel like the Bitcoin surge
in 2017.
In baseball, its “three strikes and you’re out.” After the 1970’s
surge and blow-off top in 1980, gold failed three key technical tests.
After these failures, the gold market floundered for another decade.
Let’s take a closer look at those three technical failures.
First, in early 1983, gold failed to retake and hold the
psychologically important $500/oz price level. This rejection resulted
in sideways to lower movement for another year before gold failed again,
breaking below its upward trend line near $360/oz. After falling to a
low in early 1985, gold moved higher over the next three years, only to
fail a third key resistance test near $500/oz in late 1987. After
“striking out” in the 1980s, gold fell throughout the next decade back
to $250/oz.
Unlike the gold bear market of the 1980s, gold has been passing
periodic tests of support and resistance since its sharp decline in
2013. Gold’s price retracement from a high above $1,900 to a low near
$1,040 kept the price above a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level as well
as the psychologically important $1,000 per ounce level.
The monthly wave structure of gold is bullish, and the price is now
trading above key resistance levels, with solid support at $1,379 and
$1,250. Even if the price of gold falls back to support at $1,250 per
ounce, the long term technical picture remains bullish. I view the
recent breakout over $1,380 to be significant and has likely opened the
door towards the $1,580 resistance area.
To the downside, technical breakdowns below $1,250 could lead the way
to $1,211 and $1,043. If history does indeed rhyme, a breakdown below
$1,043 could lead to another decade of futility. This downside scenario
does not appear likely, especially not with the uber-accommodative
interest rate policies worldwide. High U.S. dollar interest rates broke
the back of the gold rally in the 1980s, and there does not appear to
be any such risk of this happening again anytime soon.
In addition to my longer-term view on gold, I also track shorter-term
price signals to locate areas of accumulation and/or hedging. An
indicator I developed shows a mean-reversion relationship between price
and the point of Neutral Delta in the options market. Essentially, the
point of Neutral Delta shows where the options market participants have
placed their bets and hedges. At the moment, Neutral Delta is near
$1,345 per ounce for the options which expire on July 25th.
When the price is over-bought in relation to Neutral Delta (as it is
now), we tend to see headwinds for further price increases.
Interpreting the current data, I am led to believe that the price of
gold will re-test the $1,380 price level before July 25th, and this will
give the options hedgers an opportunity to optimize their hedge book
ahead of the next few option expirations. A lower probability event
would be a price spike again towards $1,450 which would like force a
short-covering rally by the call option sellers who may already be
out-of-the-money.
If we are in the opening innings of a new rally in gold, a retest of
$1,380 or even $1,250 will represent great opportunities to buy or add
to your gold positions. You can learn more about my research by clicking this link: Introduction to Options Sentiment.
Gold can be best viewed as financial insurance. If you believe that
you should own insurance, then you should also own gold. In terms of
investment performance, gold will do best during times of international
financial stress. In the past, the price of gold has moved
exponentially higher during these periods as demand for the ultimate
safe haven goes viral.
The world is slowly but steadily transitioning from a U.S.
dollar-backed financial system to a multi-currency, multi-polar system.
One day, the leaders of our world will let the rest of us know the plan
for a modified financial system, and we will have to admit that we were
warned many times in advance. I expect that the gold price spike will
happen before, during, and after a new Bretton Woods-type conference.
While there are many signs that a new financial order is imminent, the
transition to this new financial order could take more time than many
have been led to believe.
From a short-term perspective, I use gold puts to protect my current
precious metal allocations. This is like purchasing insurance on the
value of my current insurance policy. It also helps preserve my wealth
allowing me to buy more gold if prices do in fact, drop to $1,380 or
$1,250.
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
文章全体がZeroHedge特有の皮肉で満ちています。 Global Earnings Downgrades At Highest Level In 10 Years by Tyler Durden Thu, 01/10/2019 - 16:45 As stock markets plunged in December, asset-gatherers and commission-takers (and politicians) rushed on to every media outlet to reassure everyone that the fundamentals are "solid", "extremely strong", "very positive" ... pick your spin. The only problem is that top-down, the fundamentals are dismally disappointing... １２月の株式急落で、株式を買い集めている人、手数料狙いの人（そして政治家）はメディアに出ずっぱりで誰もにこう訴えた、ファンダメンタルズは「健全」、「とても強い」、「とてもポジティブ」・・・みなさんもこれに振り回された。唯一の問題はこれらは上意下達であることだ、実際のファンダメンタルズは悲しいかな失望するものだ・・・・ And bottom-up, the fundamentals are almost as bad as they have ever been as analysts take the ax to their outlooks... the number of analysts’ global earnings downgrades exceeded upgrades by the most since 2...
