In
a surprising announcement on Friday morning, the European Central Bank
said the 21 signatories of the 4th Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA)
"no longer see the need for formal agreement" as the market has
developed and matured, and as a result the signatories "decided not to
renew the Agreement upon its expiry in September 2019."
金曜朝に驚きの報道があった、ECBが２１調印国と、４回目のCentral Bank Gold Agreement(CBGA)を交わした「もはや公式合意は不要とみている」というのも市場が発展し十分に熟しているからだ、そして結果としてこういう調印内容だ「２０１９年９月の満期をもってこの合意を更新延長しない。」
For readers unfamiliar, the first CBGA was signed in 1999 to coordinate planned gold sales by
the various central banks. When it was introduced, the ECB notes that
"the Agreement contributed to balanced conditions in the gold market by
providing transparency regarding the intentions of the signatories. It
was renewed three times in 2004, 2009 and 2014, gradually moving towards
less stringent terms."
The fourth CBGA, which expires on 26 September 2019, was signed by
the ECB, the Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique, the
Deutsche Bundesbank, Eesti Pank, the Central Bank of Ireland, the Bank
of Greece, the Banco de España, the Banque de France, the Banca
d’Italia, the Central Bank of Cyprus, Latvijas Banka, Lietuvos bankas,
the Banque centrale du Luxembourg, the Central Bank of Malta, De
Nederlandsche Bank, the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, the Banco de
Portugal, Banka Slovenije, Národná banka Slovenska, Suomen Pankki –
Finlands Bank, Sveriges Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank.
４回目のCBGAは、２０１９年９月２６日まで有効で、調印はECBにくわえ、the Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique, the Deutsche Bundesbank, Eesti Pank, the Central Bank of Ireland, the Bank of Greece, the Banco de España, the Banque de France, the Banca d’Italia, the Central Bank of Cyprus, Latvijas Banka, Lietuvos bankas, the Banque centrale du Luxembourg, the Central Bank of Malta, De Nederlandsche Bank, the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, the Banco de Portugal, Banka Slovenije, Národná banka Slovenska, Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank, Sveriges Riksbank and the Swiss National Bankの間で調印された。
The simplest reason why the agreement is no longer needed, is that whereas central banks used to sell gold
in the 1990s and early 2000s, most famously the UK's sale of 401 tonnes
of gold of its total 715 tonne holdings under Gordon Brown, broadly
seen as one of the "worst investment decisions of all time", currently they are buying at an unprecedented pace, and in 2018, central bank gold demand was the highest in the "modern" era, or since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971.
More recent data shows
that gold buying by central banks in 2019 has persisted and remains the
highest in years, with no central bank buying more than Russia, which
after dumping most of its US Treasury holdings in 2018, has continued to
aggressively convert its foreign reserves into the precious metal.
As a result of a shift in official institutional sentiment from
selling to buying, the original agreement which was designed to
coordinate primarily selling intentions in order to avoid flooding the
market has become an anachronism. Indeed, as the following chart from
the ECB shows, there have been virtually no gold sales under the CBGA
this decade.
公的機関が売り手から買い手に変わった結果として、当初売りを調整して市場に多量のゴールドが出回るのを回避しようとした合意がもう時代錯誤となった。たしかに、下のECB提供チャートに示すように、この１０年CBGAでゴールドはほとんど売り出されていない。
Still, as Bloomberg's Pimm Fox notes, just because they did not sell
any gold recently, does not mean they won't in the future. Fox notes
that among the CBGA signatories are Banca d’Italia and Banque de France,
each of which holds more than 2,400 metric tons of the precious metal
and are faced with deteriorating finances. Well, as the OECD reported
recently, Italy’s deficit would rise to 2.5% of GDP this year while the economy shrinks 0.2%. Italy’s public debt will hit a record 133.8% of GDP this year and climb to 134.8% in 2020, according to the OECD. In
France, the government has reduced its GDP growth forecast for 2019 to
1.4% from 1.6% and is on course for a budget deficit higher than 3% of
GDP. The country’s public debt is more than 98% of GDP.
それでもブルームバーグのPimm Foxが記すが、最近彼らは全くゴールドを売却してい長い、だからといって今後売らないと言うわけではない。Foxはさらにこう記す、CBGA調印国のなかでも、Banca d’Italia and Banque de Franceこの２銀行は２，４００トンを超える貴金属を保有している、そして財政悪化に直面している。ちょうどOECDが最近報告書を開示した、イタリアの財政赤字は今年GDPの２．５％に相当し経済は０．２％縮小している。イタリアの債務は今年GDPの１３３．８％と記録的な額になり、２０２０年には１３４．８％になる。フランスでは、政府のGDP２０１９成長率予想をこれまでの１．６％から１．４％に下方修正した、そして同時に財政赤字はGDPの３％を超える。同国の財政赤字はGDPの９８％を超える。
His conclusion: "when the bills come due, politicians may start looking at something that rhymes with sold." 彼の結論は：「返済期日になると、政治家は時期を同じくして売却に走るかもしれない。」
Perhaps, but on the other hand, states such as Russia and China will
be more than happy to buy up whatever gold France and Italy have to
sell.
一方でたぶん、ロシアと中国はフランスやイタリアが売るゴールドを喜んで買うだろう。
Meanwhile, following the report, gold jumped to intraday highs, but
to Fox, the jump could be a short-lived move if some of the
abovementioned central banks begin selling their holdings to help
support cash-strapped economies.
Then again, with global bonds yields now negative across virtually
all of Europe, it would take nothing short of a crisis, or the ECB
losing all its credibility overnight, for Italy or France to be unable
to sell bonds in the current environment. Of course, if and when bond
yields soar and central banks finally lose control of the bond market,
it is distinctly possible that Italy will have no choice but to sell its
gold. The good news - if only for gold bugs - is that when that
happens, demand for gold from every other source - will be so high
thanks to the scramble out of fiat and into hard currency, that any
marginal sales will hardly be noticed as the price of gold explodes just
in time for the global hyperinflation episode.
In any case, keep an eye on the gold market on September 26: that when the CBGA will officially conclude.
どの場合であれ、９月２６日のゴールド市場に注目することだ：この日CBGAが公式結論を示す。
The full ECB statement ending the CBGA is below (link) CBGA終了に対するECBの見解はこういうものだ
As market matures central banks conclude that a formal gold agreement is no longer necessary
市場が十分に成熟しており、中央銀行はもはや公式にゴールド合意をする必要はない。
Signatories of the fourth Central Bank Gold Agreement no longer see
need for formal agreement as market has developed and matured
第４回CBGA調印国は、市場の成熟に伴い公式な合意をもはや必要としていない。
Signatory central banks confirm gold remains an important element of
global monetary reserves and none of them currently has plans to sell
significant amounts of gold
The European Central Bank (ECB) and 21 other
central banks that are signatories of the Central Bank Gold Agreement
(CBGA) have decided not to renew the Agreement upon its expiry in
September 2019.
The first CBGA was signed in 1999 to coordinate the planned gold
sales by the various central banks. When it was introduced, the
Agreement contributed to balanced conditions in the gold market by
providing transparency regarding the intentions of the signatories. It
was renewed three times in 2004, 2009 and 2014, gradually moving towards
less stringent terms.
Since 1999 the global gold market has developed considerably in terms
of maturity, liquidity and investor base. The gold price has increased
around five-fold over the same period. The signatories have not sold
significant amounts of gold for nearly a decade, and central banks and
other official institutions in general have become net buyers of gold.
The signatories confirm that gold remains an important element of
global monetary reserves, as it continues to provide asset
diversification benefits and none of them currently has plans to sell
significant amounts of gold.
The fourth CBGA, which expires on 26 September 2019, was signed by
the ECB, the Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique, the
Deutsche Bundesbank, Eesti Pank, the Central Bank of Ireland, the Bank
of Greece, the Banco de España, the Banque de France, the Banca
d’Italia, the Central Bank of Cyprus, Latvijas Banka, Lietuvos bankas,
the Banque centrale du Luxembourg, the Central Bank of Malta, De
Nederlandsche Bank, the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, the Banco de
Portugal, Banka Slovenije, Národná banka Slovenska, Suomen Pankki –
Finlands Bank, Sveriges Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank.
第４回CBGAは２０１９年９月２６日に期限が切れる、このことに以下の調印国は合意している、the ECB, the Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique, the Deutsche Bundesbank, Eesti Pank, the Central Bank of Ireland, the Bank of Greece, the Banco de España, the Banque de France, the Banca d’Italia, the Central Bank of Cyprus, Latvijas Banka, Lietuvos bankas, the Banque centrale du Luxembourg, the Central Bank of Malta, De Nederlandsche Bank, the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, the Banco de Portugal, Banka Slovenije, Národná banka Slovenska, Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank, Sveriges Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank。
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中国が債務増加していることはたしかです。ただ日本の例を日銀資金循環報告でみると家計、３２０兆円、民間非金融機関１，７８５兆円、一般政府 １，２８４兆円となります。合算すると３，３００兆円にもなり、GDPの６００％を超えています。 https://www.boj.or.jp/statistics/sj/sjexp.pdf この記事の統計と同じ考え方で数値を採用しているのかどうか気になります。 加えて、この資金循環報告に書かれている海外資産というのが内数なのか外数なのか？私にはよくわかりません。当然海外債務も結構な額になります。一度日銀資金循環 図表１を見てください。詳しい方に教えていただければ。 この中国のたどる道は昔のソ連とかMMTと同様で、自国通貨ならいくら発行しても倒産はしない、というか為政者が痛みに耐えることができず緩和を続けるというものです。でも最終的には限界点に達します。ソ連は建国から崩壊まで７０年かかりました。 自由主義経済なら立ち行かなくなった企業は退場してもらうというのが減速なのですが、これがうまくゆかないわけです。 でも日本は中国のはるか先を言っているように見えます。ちょっと検索したのですが、日本の債務に関しては政府債務に言及したものばかりで、この記事のように民間、個人まで総合的に記載しているのは日銀の資金循環統計しか見つけることができませんでした。 China Continues To Pile Debt On Top Of More Debt Written by Jesse Colombo | Feb, 27, 2019 Like many countries, China attempted to rein in its debt growth over the past couple years, but ultimately gave up and is now back to piling on even more debt. Bloomberg reports – 多くの国と同様に、中国もここ２年ほど債務増加を抑えようとしてきた、しかし結局の所諦めてしまい、今や更に債務を積み上げている。ブルームバーグ記事ーー For almost two years,...
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